1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polypropylene is in a phase of downward oscillation, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The PP market is facing supply pressure due to new capacity coming online during the production capacity expansion period and high existing production loads. Although demand has entered the peak season, it fails to meet expectations and is unable to absorb the high output. As a result, the price of polypropylene may continue to move downward [7]. - The price of polypropylene continued to fall this week, with the PP01 contract dropping below 6,500 yuan/ton. The domestic commodity market sentiment has weakened again, putting pressure on commodity prices. The fundamentals of polyolefins have not changed significantly, with supply at a high level and demand in the peak season but lacking sufficient support [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The spot price of plastic standard products has also declined significantly, with the basis strengthening slightly. The East China basis strengthened by 20 to around -100 yuan/ton, the North China basis strengthened by 10 to around -170 yuan/ton, and the South China basis strengthened by 30 to around -100 yuan/ton. The non - standard basis of plastics has a stronger trend than the standard basis [18][19]. - **Regional and Non - standard Spread**: The North China - East China regional spread has fallen to a low level, and the South China - East China regional spread has oscillated. Among the non - standard spreads, the injection molding - drawing spread and the low - melt copolymer - drawing spread have both strengthened, indicating that non - standard products are relatively firm [33][34]. - **Disk Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread has further declined to around -110, at a low level over the years. The L - PP01 spread has remained above 300, and the PP - 701 spread is at a high level, suggesting greater supply pressure for PP. The methanol market pattern is weak, with high imports leading to a record - high port inventory, and the methanol price has continued to decline [52]. 3.2 Domestic Production - end Profits and Supply - **Production Profits**: This week, the oil price has slightly oscillated downward to around $63.5 per barrel (Brent). The oil - based production end profit is at a relatively good level in recent years. In the medium to long term, the supply in North Asia from the Middle East and the United States is expected to increase, putting pressure on the PDH - based PP price, but the PDH - based profit has improved month - on - month. The power coal price has continued to rise, the CTO profit has deteriorated but remains at a high level, and the inland MTO profit has deteriorated under pressure [68]. - **Domestic Production Volume and Load**: In 2025, as of October, the new domestic PP production capacity has totaled 4.155 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 9.31%. The planned production capacity for 2025 is 4.905 million tons, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 11%. This week, the PP production volume was 796,500 tons (+7,300 tons), the operating rate was 77.78% (+0.72%), and the supply loss volume was 228,400 tons [99][100][113]. - **Production Scheduling Ratio**: An increase in the drawing production scheduling ratio may indicate that the short - term standard product is stronger than the non - standard product, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [124]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profits - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Northwest Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. The Asian price has continued to be weak. The spread between CFR China and the overseas market has rebounded [135]. - **Import - Export Profits**: Currently, overseas demand is weak, and inquiries are limited. With the increase in shipping costs, enterprises have offered discounts on exports to promote transactions. In terms of imports, although China's price is relatively low globally, the weak external demand has led to a decline in the purchasing capacity of overseas buyers, resulting in an increase in goods flowing to China [152]. 3.4 Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - **Downstream Operating Rates**: This week, the overall downstream operating rate was 53.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.26%, the BOPP operating rate increased by 0.88%, and the operating rate of PP pipes increased by 0.5%. In the future, the demand for terminal products will be slightly supported by the e - commerce festival and the cold weather, but the peak season is coming to an end [155]. 3.5 Inventory - Production enterprise inventories have increased by 48,000 tons to 599,900 tons, with Sinopec and PetroChina inventories increasing by 163,000 tons. Traders' inventories have increased by 15,000 tons, and port inventories have decreased by 700 tons [216].

企业运营中常面临原材料采购价格、产品销售价格、汇率等波动风险，而期权工具的运用在近几年得到加 速，在帮助企业应对不确定性风险、提升效率、降低成本方面发挥着明显且独特的作用。期权的本质是通 过"定制化的权利义务安排（企业支付少量成本，锁定未来关键权益）"服务经营目标。下面以某不锈钢企 业为例，分场景具体说明期权如何帮助企业对冲风险，减缓价格波动对利润的冲击。 某不锈钢企业在5月面临库存价值波动的风险，担心大量不锈钢库存贬值。在库存价值下跌时，企业要求通 过金融工具产生盈利对现货库存提供补偿，这一点利用卖出期货套期保值（下称套保）可以实现。但是该 企业要求库存价值上涨时，金融工具不能有明显的亏损，不能吞噬现货上涨的收益。此时，使用期货进行 卖出套保显然是不能满足企业要求的，只能使用期权工具进行配置。另外，目前不锈钢企业利润较低，使 用期权工具时花费的权利金也应尽量降低。 | 挂钩标的:SS2409 不锈钢期货合约 | | --- | | 生效日:2024年5月8日 | | 到期日:2024年6月19日 | | 观察日天数(交易日):30天 | | 标的人场价:14125元/吨 | | 执行价格:14050元/吨( ...