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短期期价筑底,等待企稳
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 08:57
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the content. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the spot pork price may rise slowly during the holidays. The supply side still has sufficient pig sources, but the slaughter rhythm of farms may slow down slightly due to the festive atmosphere. The demand side will see further improvement in downstream stocking enthusiasm with the arrival of the double festivals, and the sales of meat cuts are expected to continuously improve, with consumption's supporting effect on meat prices gradually strengthening. - In the short - term, the futures market is still restricted by supply pressure, but the boost from festival demand will drive prices to stop falling and rebound, with the overall price level slightly increasing. The market supply - demand pattern will adjust towards "supply - demand approaching balance". It is expected that the futures price will bottom out, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see in operation. [2][21] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig Price Market Review The report mentions a chart of pig futures and spot prices (yuan/ton), but no specific content about the review is provided. [4] 3.2 Supply Situation Analysis The report includes charts of the monthly trend of the number of breeding sows in sample enterprises (in ten thousand heads), the weekly trend of the average weight of commercial pigs slaughtered nationwide (in kilograms), and the weight - based structure of commercial pig inventory (in %), but no specific analysis content is given. [5][6][9] 3.3 Demand Situation Analysis The report contains charts of the开工率 of key slaughtering enterprises (in %) and the frozen product storage rate of key slaughtering enterprises (in %), but no specific demand analysis content is provided. [12][15] 3.4 Cost - Profit Analysis The report shows charts of self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit (yuan/head) and purchased piglet breeding profit (yuan/head), but no specific cost - profit analysis content is given. [17][19] 3.5 Market Outlook - Spot market: In the short - term, the pork price may rise slowly during the holidays. The supply side has sufficient pig sources, but the farm's slaughter rhythm may slow down during festivals. The demand side will see increased stocking enthusiasm with the double festivals, and the sales of meat cuts will improve, strengthening the consumption's support for meat prices. - Futures market: In the short - term, it is restricted by supply pressure, but festival demand will drive prices to stop falling and rebound, with the price level rising slightly. The supply - demand pattern will adjust towards balance. It is expected that the futures price will bottom out, and it is recommended to wait and see. [2][21]