期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面表现偏弱，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端有所变化，建筑钢厂复产，产量迎来回升，但依旧位于低位，低供应给予钢价 支撑，但存回升预期，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标回落且继续 位于近年来同期低位，而下游行业也未好转，后续将延续季节性弱势，持续承压钢价。目前来看， 螺纹钢供应在回升，而 ...

2025年12月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪推涨，价格走势坚挺 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪推涨，价格走势坚挺 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 16 日 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 777.0 | -5.5 | -0. 70% | | | 12601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - side oscillatory trend supported by macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to have a weak - side oscillatory trend due to sector - wide market resonance [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are anticipated to have a weak oscillatory trend as a result of the game between capital and reality [2][11] - Coke and coking coal are predicted to have a wide - range oscillatory trend as market sentiment is realized [2][15] - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with an oscillatory trend as daily consumption recovers [2][18] - Logs are likely to have a repeated oscillatory trend [2][21] Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures was 786.0 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2.06%. The positions decreased by 39,554 hands. Among spot prices, the price of domestic ore in some regions increased, while imported ore decreased. Most of the price differences decreased [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public comments on the Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 futures decreased by 2.05% and 2.30% respectively. The positions of both decreased. Most of the spot prices and price differences changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, Steel Union's weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products. In mid - July 2025, the production of key steel enterprises increased. On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public comments on the Draft Amendment to the Price Law [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The price differences showed various changes [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 28, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions showed changes. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices of ferrosilicon. In July, the operating rate and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in some regions increased [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased significantly. The positions decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and the price differences also showed changes [15] - **Price and Position Information**: The prices of coking coal in northern ports were provided. On July 28, the CCI metallurgical coal index changed. The positions of coking coal and coke futures decreased [15][16][17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17] Steam Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The ZC2508 contract had no trading. The prices of imported steam coal in southern ports and domestic steam coal in production areas were provided. The positions of the ZC2508 contract remained unchanged [18][19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [20] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts of logs showed various changes. The prices of different types of logs in different regions also had different trends [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public comments on the Draft Amendment to the Price Law [24] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a weak trend [24]