期货投资研究

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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250729
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 02:11
Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - side oscillatory trend supported by macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to have a weak - side oscillatory trend due to sector - wide market resonance [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are anticipated to have a weak oscillatory trend as a result of the game between capital and reality [2][11] - Coke and coking coal are predicted to have a wide - range oscillatory trend as market sentiment is realized [2][15] - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with an oscillatory trend as daily consumption recovers [2][18] - Logs are likely to have a repeated oscillatory trend [2][21] Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures was 786.0 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2.06%. The positions decreased by 39,554 hands. Among spot prices, the price of domestic ore in some regions increased, while imported ore decreased. Most of the price differences decreased [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public comments on the Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 futures decreased by 2.05% and 2.30% respectively. The positions of both decreased. Most of the spot prices and price differences changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, Steel Union's weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products. In mid - July 2025, the production of key steel enterprises increased. On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public comments on the Draft Amendment to the Price Law [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The price differences showed various changes [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 28, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions showed changes. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices of ferrosilicon. In July, the operating rate and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in some regions increased [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased significantly. The positions decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and the price differences also showed changes [15] - **Price and Position Information**: The prices of coking coal in northern ports were provided. On July 28, the CCI metallurgical coal index changed. The positions of coking coal and coke futures decreased [15][16][17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17] Steam Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The ZC2508 contract had no trading. The prices of imported steam coal in southern ports and domestic steam coal in production areas were provided. The positions of the ZC2508 contract remained unchanged [18][19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [20] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts of logs showed various changes. The prices of different types of logs in different regions also had different trends [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public comments on the Draft Amendment to the Price Law [24] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a weak trend [24]