Report Industry Investment Rating - Short fiber: Weakening trend [1] - Bottle chips: Weakening trend [1] Core Viewpoints - During the National Day holiday, upstream crude oil and PX prices declined and then rebounded, while the export price of PTA slightly decreased. Before the holiday, the futures of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber fluctuated weakly following the raw materials. The factory quotes remained stable, and the transactions were negotiated on a case - by - case basis. Traders offered discounts for sales. The trading volume of traders was okay today, while the factory sales were average, with an average production - sales ratio of 57% by 3:00 pm. Some downstream polyester yarn factories had a 1 - 3 - day holiday as planned [1]. - Before the holiday, the futures of upstream polyester raw materials oscillated and closed lower. The quotes of polyester bottle chip factories were partially reduced by 20 - 50 yuan. The trading volume in the polyester bottle chip market was average. Orders from September to November were mostly transacted at ex - factory prices ranging from 5730 to 5830 yuan/ton, with a small amount slightly lower around 5710 yuan/ton ex - factory and slightly higher around 5850 - 5890 yuan/ton ex - factory, and prices varied by brand [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Short Fiber - Price changes: Short fiber 2510 decreased from 6326 to 6314, a change of - 12; short fiber 2511 increased from 6326 to 6336, a change of 10; short fiber 2512 decreased from 6334 to 6296, a change of - 38. The PF10 - 11 spread decreased from 0 to - 22, a change of - 22; the PF11 - 12 spread increased from - 8 to 40, a change of 48; the PF basis decreased from 114 to 99, a change of - 15 [1]. - Position and volume: The short - fiber main contract's open interest decreased from 194228 to 194058, a change of - 170; the trading volume decreased from 160384 to 149651, a change of - 10733. The East China spot price decreased from 6.440 to 6.435, a change of - 5. The production - sales ratio increased from 45% to 52%, a change of 7% [1]. Bottle Chips - Price changes: Bottle chips 2510 decreased from 5846 to 5832, a change of - 14; bottle chips 2511 decreased from 5802 to 5796, a change of - 6; bottle chips 2512 decreased from 5802 to 5798, a change of - 4. The PR10 - 11 spread decreased from 44 to 36, a change of - 8; the PR11 - 12 spread decreased from 0 to - 2, a change of - 2; the PR main contract basis increased from - 22 to - 16 [1]. - Position and volume: The bottle - chip main contract's open interest decreased from 26435 to 20146, a change of - 6289; the trading volume decreased from 56826 to 42587, a change of - 14239. The East China spot price remained at 5780, and the South China spot price also remained at 5860 [1]. Spot News - Short fiber: During the National Day, upstream raw materials fluctuated. Before the holiday, the market was weak. Today, trader transactions were okay, and factory sales were average, with an average production - sales ratio of 57% by 3:00 pm. Some downstream factories had holidays [1]. - Bottle chips: Before the holiday, upstream raw material futures closed lower, factory quotes were partially reduced, and the market trading volume was average. Orders from September to November had different price ranges [2]. Trend Intensity - Short fiber trend intensity: - 1 [2] - Bottle chips trend intensity: - 1 (only referring to the daily - session price fluctuation of the main contract on the report day) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No direct industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for each product, indicating their short - to medium - term outlooks. For example, - 1 represents a weakly bearish outlook, 0 represents a neutral outlook, and - 2 represents a strongly bearish outlook [11][17][28] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, highlighting their current market conditions, trends, and future outlooks. It notes that some products are facing cost pressures, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties, while others are influenced by seasonal factors and inventory levels [4][9][16] 3. Category - by - Category Summaries A. Aromatics and Polyester - Related Products - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: Cost has collapsed, and the unilateral trend has weakened. It is recommended to do 11 - 01 positive spreads and 1 - 5 reverse spreads. Unilateral prices have limited downside space, and it is advisable to go long on dips before mid - September [4][9] - **PTA**: Followed the decline in crude oil prices. Continue to focus on the 11 - 1 positive spreads for the month - spread and long PTA short PX for processing fees [4][9] - **MEG**: With the decline of coal and crude oil prices, the valuation of ethylene glycol has declined, and the short - term trend is weak [4][9] B. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: The market is in a weakly bearish and oscillating pattern. In August, the prices of natural rubber and other raw materials fluctuated upwards, and the tire raw material cost increased. The full - steel tire market price was basically stable in August, and it is expected to remain stable in September [10][11][13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the short term, it is in an oscillating and pressured state. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has increased slightly, and the short - term supply of butadiene is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy provides some support to the overall valuation of commodities [14][15][16] C. Bitumen - The price is under pressure from OPEC's potential production increase, but geopolitical risks still exist. The total weekly output of domestic bitumen decreased by 3.3% week - on - week and increased by 3.3% year - on - year. Both factory and social inventories have decreased [19][20][31] D. Plastics - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in an oscillating market. The demand for PE is improving due to the upcoming peak season for the agricultural film industry, but recent commodity sentiment has declined, affecting futures prices. The supply pressure may be alleviated in the East China region at the end of September [32][33] - **PP**: In the short term, it oscillates, and in the medium term, there is still downward pressure. Although short - term demand has improved, the cost side is weak, and the supply pressure will increase in the future [36][37] E. Alkali Products - **Caustic Soda**: It is not advisable to chase short positions. The market will still have wide - range oscillations in the short term. The current driving force for caustic soda is insufficient, and the market is in a state of expectation game. The main obstacles to the rise are export and alumina [40][41] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating, with flexible price transactions. The downstream demand fluctuates little, and the procurement sentiment is not good [63][65] F. Pulp and Paper - **Pulp**: It is in an oscillating state. The spot price of pulp is stable, and the futures market has a slight upward trend. The supply side has support from the new round of foreign offers, but the demand side is still weak [45][48] - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is oscillating at a low level with limited upward momentum [2] G. Glass and Methanol - **Glass**: The price of the original glass sheet is stable. The short - term supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and downstream orders have little change [50][51] - **Methanol**: It is in an oscillating pattern. The short - term fundamentals have significant contradictions, with continuous inventory accumulation at ports. However, the "anti - involution" policy provides some support to the overall valuation of commodities [53][56][57] H. Fertilizers - **Urea**: Spot trading is light, and futures are at a premium. In the short term, the export has not significantly driven the spot market, and the mid - term trend is still under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [58][59][60] I. Styrene - **Styrene**: It is bearish in the medium term. The short - term market is oscillating, but the mid - term fundamentals are weak due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the end of the "anti - involution" hype [61][62] J. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: There is an expectation of OPEC+ production increase, leading to a decline in crude oil cost [68] - **Propylene**: High spot prices have suppressed buying interest, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [69] K. PVC - The market is still under pressure. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports may be affected by policy disturbances [79][80][81] L. Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has been continuously retracing, and may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [82] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The downward trend continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is oscillating at a high level [82] M. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in a wide - range oscillating state, with recent price declines in European and US - West shipping routes [84]