Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - LPG prices dropped in night trading due to expectations of oversupply, while propylene supply and demand were tight, leading to higher spot transactions [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. LPG and Propylene Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,470 with a daily increase of 0.18% and 4,446 at night with a -0.54% decrease; PG2511 closed at 4,424 daily (+0.23%) and 4,405 at night (-0.43%); PL2601 closed at 6,409 daily (+0.02%) and 6,392 at night (-0.27%); PL2602 closed at 6,442 daily (-0.17%) and 6,425 at night (-0.26%) [2] - **Position and Trading Volume**: PG2510 trading volume was 58,811, down 33,266 from the previous day, and the position was 67,360, down 1,755; PG2511 trading volume was 23,568, down 9,364, and the position was 48,770, up 3,459; PL2601 trading volume was 3,245, up 444, and the position was 10,779, up 450; PL2602 trading volume was 53, up 35, and the position was 886, down 1 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG10 contract was 30 (previous day: 38); between Guangzhou imported gas and PG10 contract was 60 (previous day: 88); between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 291 (previous day: 267); between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 191 (previous day: 192); between South China propylene and PL01 contract was 66 (previous day: 67) [2] - **Important Industrial Chain Data**: PDH operating rate was 70.5% (previous week: 73.1%); MTBE operating rate was 61.7% (previous week: 62.2%); alkylation operating rate was 45.7% (previous week: 46.8%) [2] 2. Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity was 0; propylene trend intensity was 0, with the range of [-2, 2] and classifications of weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong [-2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish] [6] 3. Market News - On September 11, 2025, the October CP paper cargo for propane was $549/ton, down $1/ton from the previous trading day; butane was $524/ton, up $1/ton. The November CP paper cargo for propane was $559/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7] - There were domestic PDH device maintenance plans (from Longzhong Information on September 4) and domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans (from Longzhong Information on September 11), listing multiple companies' maintenance time, capacity, etc. [7][8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No direct industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for each product, indicating their short - to medium - term outlooks. For example, - 1 represents a weakly bearish outlook, 0 represents a neutral outlook, and - 2 represents a strongly bearish outlook [11][17][28] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, highlighting their current market conditions, trends, and future outlooks. It notes that some products are facing cost pressures, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties, while others are influenced by seasonal factors and inventory levels [4][9][16] 3. Category - by - Category Summaries A. Aromatics and Polyester - Related Products - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: Cost has collapsed, and the unilateral trend has weakened. It is recommended to do 11 - 01 positive spreads and 1 - 5 reverse spreads. Unilateral prices have limited downside space, and it is advisable to go long on dips before mid - September [4][9] - **PTA**: Followed the decline in crude oil prices. Continue to focus on the 11 - 1 positive spreads for the month - spread and long PTA short PX for processing fees [4][9] - **MEG**: With the decline of coal and crude oil prices, the valuation of ethylene glycol has declined, and the short - term trend is weak [4][9] B. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: The market is in a weakly bearish and oscillating pattern. In August, the prices of natural rubber and other raw materials fluctuated upwards, and the tire raw material cost increased. The full - steel tire market price was basically stable in August, and it is expected to remain stable in September [10][11][13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the short term, it is in an oscillating and pressured state. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has increased slightly, and the short - term supply of butadiene is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy provides some support to the overall valuation of commodities [14][15][16] C. Bitumen - The price is under pressure from OPEC's potential production increase, but geopolitical risks still exist. The total weekly output of domestic bitumen decreased by 3.3% week - on - week and increased by 3.3% year - on - year. Both factory and social inventories have decreased [19][20][31] D. Plastics - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in an oscillating market. The demand for PE is improving due to the upcoming peak season for the agricultural film industry, but recent commodity sentiment has declined, affecting futures prices. The supply pressure may be alleviated in the East China region at the end of September [32][33] - **PP**: In the short term, it oscillates, and in the medium term, there is still downward pressure. Although short - term demand has improved, the cost side is weak, and the supply pressure will increase in the future [36][37] E. Alkali Products - **Caustic Soda**: It is not advisable to chase short positions. The market will still have wide - range oscillations in the short term. The current driving force for caustic soda is insufficient, and the market is in a state of expectation game. The main obstacles to the rise are export and alumina [40][41] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating, with flexible price transactions. The downstream demand fluctuates little, and the procurement sentiment is not good [63][65] F. Pulp and Paper - **Pulp**: It is in an oscillating state. The spot price of pulp is stable, and the futures market has a slight upward trend. The supply side has support from the new round of foreign offers, but the demand side is still weak [45][48] - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is oscillating at a low level with limited upward momentum [2] G. Glass and Methanol - **Glass**: The price of the original glass sheet is stable. The short - term supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and downstream orders have little change [50][51] - **Methanol**: It is in an oscillating pattern. The short - term fundamentals have significant contradictions, with continuous inventory accumulation at ports. However, the "anti - involution" policy provides some support to the overall valuation of commodities [53][56][57] H. Fertilizers - **Urea**: Spot trading is light, and futures are at a premium. In the short term, the export has not significantly driven the spot market, and the mid - term trend is still under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [58][59][60] I. Styrene - **Styrene**: It is bearish in the medium term. The short - term market is oscillating, but the mid - term fundamentals are weak due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the end of the "anti - involution" hype [61][62] J. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: There is an expectation of OPEC+ production increase, leading to a decline in crude oil cost [68] - **Propylene**: High spot prices have suppressed buying interest, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [69] K. PVC - The market is still under pressure. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports may be affected by policy disturbances [79][80][81] L. Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has been continuously retracing, and may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [82] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The downward trend continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is oscillating at a high level [82] M. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in a wide - range oscillating state, with recent price declines in European and US - West shipping routes [84]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong upward trend in coking coal futures indicates a tightening supply-demand balance, with potential for further price increases due to ongoing market dynamics [6] Supply - As of August 7, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 651,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.3% [3] - The average daily coking coal production from 247 steel mills was 468,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.2%, leading to a total production of 1,119,000 tons per day, which is a week-on-week increase of 0.1% [3] Demand - As of August 7, the average daily pig iron output was 2,403,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons week-on-week [4] - The blast furnace operating rate was 83.75%, an increase of 0.29% week-on-week [4] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 90.09%, a decrease of 0.15% week-on-week [4] - The profitability rate for steel mills was 68.41%, an increase of 3.03% week-on-week [4] Inventory - As of August 7, the total coking coal inventory was 9.626 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 86,000 tons [5] - The inventory at independent coking plants was 697,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 39,000 tons [5] - The inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.193 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 74,000 tons [5] - Port inventory was 2.736 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 27,000 tons [5] Price Trends - As of August 12, coking coal futures showed strong upward movement, with the near-month 2509 contract rising by 69.5 (+4.19%) to 1,730.0 and the main 2601 contract rising by 78.0 (+4.50%) to 1,812.0 [1] - The fifth round of price increases for coking coal was implemented on August 4, with a range of 50-55 yuan/ton, and the sixth round initiated on August 8 [1][6] - Current prices for premium wet quenching metallurgical coke are reported at 1,290 yuan/ton and dry quenching coke at 1,530 yuan/ton after the recent price adjustments [6] Market Outlook - The supply side is constrained due to slower-than-expected coal mine restarts, while demand remains supported by downstream needs despite a slight decrease in pig iron production [6] - The overall inventory levels are moderate, with active destocking at coking plants and steel mills, while port inventories have slightly increased [6] - The market anticipates further price increases for coking coal due to tight supply-demand conditions and proactive restocking by downstream steel mills [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the global industrial metal market is expected to remain in a loose cycle in the second half of the year, supporting price increases for industrial metals [1] - Domestic policy-driven demand is anticipated to gradually improve, leading to a release of demand elasticity for metals [1] - Supply constraints for metals like copper and aluminum are expected to continue, with a tightening supply-demand situation likely to further develop [1] Group 2 - For copper, the trend of shrinking supply elasticity is becoming evident, with processing fees continuing to decline and smelting profits under pressure, suggesting limited global copper supply growth in the second half [1] - In the aluminum sector, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, with minimal production elasticity, while strong resilience in the new energy sector is expected to maintain demand [1] - The mining ETF tracks a non-ferrous metal mining index, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal industry chain, which is closely related to commodity price fluctuations [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly indicated, but the operation rating implies an unclear short - term trend [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in terms of a star rating, but implied to follow the crude oil trend [1][3] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market for crude oil is oscillating strongly, but there may be short - selling opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced. The fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil markets show different trends, with high - sulfur fuel oil facing weak demand and low - sulfur fuel oil following the crude oil trend. The asphalt market has a short - term callback pressure on the cracking spread but the upward trend is not reversed. The LPG market has stabilized with limited downward space and remains in low - level oscillation [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with the SC07 contract rising 0.69% during the day. The crude oil month - spread and spot premium are stronger than the single - side price, indicating tight physical supply as the peak season approaches. Since the second quarter, global oil inventory accumulation has exceeded that of the first quarter. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased by 3.3 million barrels. The market is short - term oscillating strongly, but the rapid production increase by OPEC+ may make the supply - demand tightness unsustainable [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a differentiated trend today, with LU performing relatively strongly. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep - processing is still low. The summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa has some support, but the expected lower temperature in Saudi Arabia and Egypt this summer and the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread may lead to more crude oil used for power generation. In May, the arrival volume of Russian fuel oil in Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons. The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread and EFS are expected to weaken together. The low - sulfur fuel oil bunkering volume in Fujairah decreased significantly last week, and the overseas ship - fuel demand peak season is approaching the end. With low supply in China, the port bonded inventory has decreased significantly, and low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the crude oil trend [3] Asphalt - Asphalt performed relatively weakly today, and the BU cracking spread continued a slight downward trend. The June diluted asphalt premium is still at a high of - $6.5 per barrel, and refinery production depends on crude oil quotas. After the peak of major refinery overhauls, the refinery's operation is still restricted by poor comprehensive refining and export profits, and the supply increase lacks resilience. The seasonal demand improvement has been realized, but the real driving force is still awaited. The balance sheet estimates that the de - stocking trend will continue and the inventory level is low. The BU cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [4] LPG - The June CP reduction is relatively small. Although the Middle East supply is still abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment, and the market decline has stabilized. The domestic arrival volume at the beginning of the month and the domestic - produced gas have both declined month - on - month, and the supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downward space. The spot - market surplus pressure has eased, and the futures market has stabilized with the rise of crude oil, but the improvement of chemical profit margins lacks momentum, and it remains in low - level oscillation [5]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]