以下文章来源于力的期权工作室 ，作者余力 Felix 力的期权工作室 . 对个人更通俗，对机构更专业，努力做最具品质的衍生品公众号~ 文 | 余力 Felix 来源 | 力的期权工作室 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 这个星期，相比于A股，我想另一个资产应该引起了更大的关注， 它就是年内涨幅一度快到30%的资产——黄 金。 隔岸的大嘴，原本想"make America great again"，最后搞成了"make Au great again"。尤其是前几天，每天 两三个点的涨幅，确实是简直了…… 然而，这个世界总是被反者道之动的规律所支配。任何一个风险资产的表现不会永远顺滑的，也没有一个风险 资产会只涨不跌的。偶然中蕴含着必然，尽管今天黄金的大跌与trump的态度缓和有很大关系，但其次这一次 大跌，也恰恰是发生一系列指标进入极值以后…… 图：当日沪金指数的分时走势 数据来源：Wind 最近的黄金有多疯狂呢？我们一起来跟踪两组数据。 首先，国际金价的乖离率又一次进入了历史极值区域。 所谓乖离率，指的是一个资产价格相对某根均线的偏离 程度，对于前天收盘的国际金价，它相对于20天均线的乖离率已经达到了2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the recent surge in gold prices, which have increased by nearly 30% this year, and discusses the implications of this volatility for investors [1][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - The international gold price's deviation rate has reached historical extremes, with a 98% percentile deviation from the 20-day moving average and a 99% percentile deviation from the 60-day moving average, indicating a high risk of further price increases [3][4]. - Domestic gold ETFs have doubled in size within two months, with total assets nearing 160 billion yuan, up from approximately 70 billion yuan on February 28 and over 90 billion yuan on March 31, reflecting accelerated inflows [4][8]. Group 2: Options Market Insights - Near-expiry out-of-the-money gold options experienced a maximum increase of 9800%, showcasing a "doomsday effect," but their value plummeted to 0.04 yuan shortly after, highlighting the speculative nature of such options [4][6]. - The majority of investors are unlikely to purchase deep out-of-the-money options due to their high probability of expiring worthless, similar to betting on an unlikely sports comeback [6][7]. Group 3: Long-term Gold Investment Logic - Gold is viewed as a robust asset for 2023, driven by factors such as inflation hedging, risk aversion, and the increasing accumulation of gold by central banks, with the share of gold in global reserves rising from 8.7% in 2001 to 18.3% by Q1 2025 [8]. - The article suggests that as long as the themes of inflation protection, risk aversion, and central bank purchases persist, gold remains a favorable investment, despite short-term volatility [8].