Group 1: Market Overview - The CPO sector currently shows no significant incremental funds[7] - Algorithm trading has become prevalent among institutional investors, indicating their participation level[9] - The relative participation of institutions in the CPO sector has fluctuated, with three distinct phases observed in 2025[15] Group 2: Phases of Institutional Participation - Phase 1 (May to July 2025): Institutional participation increased significantly, with relative participation consistently above 1[15] - Phase 2 (August 2025): Rapid influx of individual investors led to a decline in institutional participation below 1[15] - Phase 3 (September to November 21, 2025): Institutional participation stabilized but remained below the market average[15] Group 3: Withdrawal Analysis - During Phase 1, institutional withdrawal numbers rose, indicating strong buying intent[19] - In Phase 2, institutional withdrawal numbers fluctuated while individual withdrawals surged, altering the order book structure[19] - By Phase 3, institutional withdrawals remained stable while individual withdrawals decreased, suggesting a shift in market dynamics[19]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping to around $80,000, marking a decline of over 30% from its historical peak of $126,000 in early October, and reaching a seven-month low [1][3] Market Performance - Bitcoin's latest price is $86,161, with a daily increase of 2.91% but a weekly decline of 8.32% [1] - Ethereum is priced at $2,805, with a weekly drop of 10.12% and a monthly decline of 26% [3] - Other cryptocurrencies like SOL, BNB, and Dogecoin have also suffered losses exceeding 20% [3] Market Dynamics - The downturn is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, tightening liquidity, and a negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar index [3] - Institutional funds that previously supported Bitcoin's rise are showing signs of withdrawal, influenced by the post-US election environment and a cooling of pro-crypto policies [3] Investor Sentiment - The market is experiencing heightened fear, with significant liquidation events occurring, including over $1 billion in liquidations and 183,500 individuals affected [3] - Experts indicate that the drop below $80,000 is a significant marker of the current market's deep correction, leading to widespread panic and a substantial blow to market confidence [3] Risk Factors - Investors face various risks, including liquidation risk due to leveraged trading, market liquidity risk, and policy risk, which can exacerbate market volatility [4] - The effectiveness of the $80,000 support level is crucial for potential market recovery, with uncertainty surrounding the strength and sustainability of any rebound [4] Long-term Outlook - In the medium to long term, Bitcoin's price is influenced by macro liquidity, institutional participation, and regulatory policies [5] - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully, avoid high leverage, and stay informed about macroeconomic and policy signals to navigate the volatile market [5]