利率债、信用债、可转债及固收+年度策略 20260105 摘要 2025 年债市对基本面定价偏弱，央行收紧资金面致大行卖债，引发负 债荒。交易盘受低赔率影响，部分券商借券做空盈利。保险业分红险元 年，但新增资金对长期限债券边际影响较弱。 预计 2026 年通胀指标对债市影响增大，货币政策降息空间有限（约 10BP），建议选择中短期限品种波段操作，如 7-10 年国债或 5-7 年二 永债，控制风险。 2026 年债券供给预计不弱于 2025 年，负债荒或持续。股市相对乐观， 股债利差仍具性价比，跷跷板效应持续但不强于今年。关注三四季度监 管政策扰动，公募销售费率新规或落地。 信用风险整体可控，理财规模稳增，短端信用利差不必过虑。建议一季 度早配置早收益，适当延长久期至 4-5 年票息资产，关注信用 ETF 和参 与式基金机会。 推荐收益合适的配置原则，城投债是 2026 年置换债发行最后一年，发 行速度预计较快，总量约 2 万亿。推荐短久期和票息策略，优选 2 亿加 以上、三年及三年以内的城投债。 2026 年的利率债投资策略主要是追求"小而稳"的幸福。预计 2026 年市场 仍将保持波动状态，因此建议采取中 ...

如果说 2024 年是加密货币通过现货 ETF 叩开传统金融大门的一年，那么 2025 年则是这一资产类别正式登堂入室、重塑全球金融格局的"分水岭"。在这一 年里，加密市场彻底告别了过去由单纯情绪驱动的"巨震时代"，进入了由机构资本、监管政策和实际应用驱动的"主旋律时代"。 这不仅是一次价格的跃迁，更是一场深度的范式转移：加密货币已从边缘化的数字资产，演变为全球主权国家战略储备、企业财务配置以及全球跨境结算的 核心基础设施。 智通财经APP注意到，在比特币的带领下，加密货币总市值从年初约1.6万亿美元的基线出发，在史诗级叙事驱动下一度狂飙突进，突破4万亿美元的历史性 关口，最终在剧烈的波动中收官，刻画出一条足以载入金融史册的K线。 四万亿时代的降临 2025 年的全球加密市场总市值见证了历史性的跨越。年初，市场尚在 1.6 万亿美元的基石上徘徊，随着全球机构资金的常态化流入，市值在第三季度一度突 破 4 万亿美元大关。但在年末受全球宏观流动性周期性收紧的影响，市场出现了大幅的收官回撤。 截至12月29日，比特币价格在连续震荡后徘徊于8.9万美元附近，较10月创下的12.6万美元历史高点回落约25%，期间跌幅一 ...

现象描述 Sora2一经发布便在市场上掀起了轩然大波。据行业统计，发布后的短短一周内，其相关话题在社交媒体上的讨论量突破了10亿次，大量用户涌入体验。在 应用下载排名中，迅速攀升至榜首，日下载量超过62万次，成为现象级产品，引发了全球范围内对AI视频生成领域的高度关注。 战略解码 从商业层面来看，开发Sora2是企业构建内容生态闭环的重要战略布局。其盈利模式不再局限于传统的软件售卖，而是通过提供订阅服务、企业定制化解决 方案以及广告分成等多元化途径实现盈利。背后的资本运作也十分明显，为了研发Sora2，企业投入了巨额资金，面临着巨大的财务压力。有分析指出，研 发成本可能高达85亿美元，这也倒逼企业加速商业化进程，以尽快实现盈利。 风险与挑战 这场豪赌并非没有隐患。首先是版权问题，Sora2生成的内容可能涉及侵犯他人版权，引发法律纠纷。其次，监管方面也存在不确定性，随着AI技术的发 展，各国政府可能会出台更加严格的监管政策，限制其发展。此外，高额的研发成本和烧钱速度也对企业的财务可持续性提出了挑战。 数据流场 pa 22 图片→AI处理 0 现在评论区扣 视频创作革命已至,财富风口为你散开|现在 "风", 优先 ...

资本市场是信息市场，信息的质量直接决定着资源配置的效率与公平。然而，部分财经自媒体和所谓 的"大V"却将严肃的市场信息场，异化为追逐流量的名利场。 从上市公司到行业，再到监管政策，虚假"小作文"几乎无孔不入。打着独家爆料的旗号，一些虚假信息 在资本市场快速蔓延，造谣者收获了流量，却坑害了众多不明真相的投资者。 在资本市场里，市场情绪和信心至关重要，投资者对量化、股指期货等相关政策本就较为敏感，但个别 自媒体却为了高流量专门造谣"蹭热点"，诸如捏造股指期货等虚假信息，误导公众认知以博取投资者的 关注。 （来源：北京商报） 部分上市公司股价盘中突然闪崩、直线拉升，搞得投资者一头雾水，事后才发现是虚假"小作文"在作 怪。这种因虚假信息导致的股价异常波动，可能在短期内扭曲市场的定价逻辑，严重违背市场赖以生存 的公平、公正、公开三大原则。 近日，国家网信办会同中国证监会深入整治涉资本市场网上虚假不实信息，依法处置"八姐无敌""投行 那些事儿"等账号。 随着资本市场热度持续升温，个别财经大V、网红们打起了A股市场的主意，试图靠着虚假"小作文"博 眼球，目的无非是博取流量、收割韭菜。但A股从来都不是虚假"小作文"的流量场， ...

Core Insights - The Bitcoin MENA Conference will take place on December 8-9 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre, co-hosted by ADNEC Group and BTC Inc, expecting over 12,000 visitors [1] Group 1: Conference Focus - The conference will focus on topics such as Bitcoin, institutional capital, energy innovation, and regulatory policies [1] - It aims to showcase the UAE, particularly Abu Dhabi, as a leader in computing power infrastructure, mining layout, sovereign-level adoption, and digital asset regulation [1] Group 2: Regional Highlights - The event will highlight the rapidly developing energy system and the comprehensive regulatory environment in the UAE [1]

高层会议如何定调明年经济政策？对国内而言，12月中旬前后即将召开的政治局会议和经济工作会议无 疑是重中之重，对于2026年经济工作如何开展，经济增长目标如何设定，货币和财政政策如何发力，产 业政策如何接续等问题的定调，都将成为金融市场关注的焦点。我们认为，在十五五规划纲要的指引 下，2026年延续5%左右增速目标的概率较高，但考虑到目前有所加大的经济下行压力和上半年偏高的 基数，明年货币和财政政策的力度、节奏和抓手尤为关键。关注2026年赤字率预期，货币政策是否靠前 发力，以及"两重两新"到期后的促消费接续政策。 美联储是否如期降息？新任美联储主席花落谁家？随着四季度以来美联储降息预期有所降温，处于高位 的全球风险资产波动明显加剧，叠加政府关门等因素拖累下美国宏观数据出现走弱迹象，近期美联储官 员对12月可能降息的表态明显增多，推升12月降息预期，带动全球风险资产有所回暖。随着12月会期的 临近，美联储能否如期降息就成为了近期风险偏好回升能否延续的关键。除此之外，特朗普表示圣诞前 后就将确定下一任美联储主席人选，这对于未来美联储货币政策方向和独立性的影响，可能比单次会议 的利率决议更为关键，对市场的潜在扰动也 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国财政部长贝森特周二表示，总统特朗普预计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储 主席人选。他在接受专访时透露，仍有一场关键的二轮面试将在今天进行，因此暂不准备对最终人选作 出任何判断。他再次强调，特朗普可能在12月25日前公布提名决定。 贝森特透露，在面试候选人的过程中，一个核心主题就是"如何让美联储变得更简单"。他表示，如今的 美联储在管理货币市场时已变得过于复杂，"我意识到美联储已经演变成一个非常复杂的机构"，因此在 遴选标准中，他特别关注候选人对于美联储各类政策工具之间相互作用的理解。他说："我们在面试中 特别强调，这些工具之间的计算方式到底是怎样的，它们之间的关系是什么。" 外界普遍认为的最终候选名单包括：美联储理事沃勒、鲍曼，前美联储理事沃什，国家经济委员会主任 哈塞特，以及贝莱德高管里德尔。 贝森特指出，美联储目前采用所谓"充裕准备金"的操作框架，通过持有大量美国国债来控制政策利率， 并向银行在美联储的超额准备金支付利息，同时也向货币市场基金在临时放置现金时支付利息。他认为 这一框架正在出现"边缘松动"的迹象，"看起来系统内的准备金可能没有想象中那么'充裕'"。 为确保流动性充足，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping to around $80,000, marking a decline of over 30% from its historical peak of $126,000 in early October, and reaching a seven-month low [1][3] Market Performance - Bitcoin's latest price is $86,161, with a daily increase of 2.91% but a weekly decline of 8.32% [1] - Ethereum is priced at $2,805, with a weekly drop of 10.12% and a monthly decline of 26% [3] - Other cryptocurrencies like SOL, BNB, and Dogecoin have also suffered losses exceeding 20% [3] Market Dynamics - The downturn is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, tightening liquidity, and a negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar index [3] - Institutional funds that previously supported Bitcoin's rise are showing signs of withdrawal, influenced by the post-US election environment and a cooling of pro-crypto policies [3] Investor Sentiment - The market is experiencing heightened fear, with significant liquidation events occurring, including over $1 billion in liquidations and 183,500 individuals affected [3] - Experts indicate that the drop below $80,000 is a significant marker of the current market's deep correction, leading to widespread panic and a substantial blow to market confidence [3] Risk Factors - Investors face various risks, including liquidation risk due to leveraged trading, market liquidity risk, and policy risk, which can exacerbate market volatility [4] - The effectiveness of the $80,000 support level is crucial for potential market recovery, with uncertainty surrounding the strength and sustainability of any rebound [4] Long-term Outlook - In the medium to long term, Bitcoin's price is influenced by macro liquidity, institutional participation, and regulatory policies [5] - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully, avoid high leverage, and stay informed about macroeconomic and policy signals to navigate the volatile market [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, reaching a peak of $126,251 on October 6, only to drop below $94,000 by November 17, erasing all gains for the year due to tightening dollar liquidity and changing market conditions [1][2][3] Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of macro liquidity tightening, decreased market risk appetite, and cyclical factors within the cryptocurrency industry [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal and monetary policy has led to a cautious trading environment, affecting both risk and safe-haven assets [3][9] - Bitcoin's price drop has coincided with a decline in traditional safe-haven assets like gold, indicating a broader market liquidity crisis [1][9] Institutional Involvement - Institutional investors have been a key support for Bitcoin's price, but recent outflows have raised concerns about market stability [6][7] - The recent tightening of macro liquidity and increased political and policy uncertainties have prompted some institutions to withdraw from the market, contributing to Bitcoin's price decline [6][7] Future Outlook - Despite the current volatility, the long-term fundamentals for Bitcoin remain intact, supported by global asset diversification trends and increasing institutional participation [6][7] - The narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation still holds potential, but it requires a shift from a speculative tool to a value storage asset [7][8] - The need for a more robust regulatory framework and technological trust is critical for Bitcoin's future acceptance as a mainstream asset [7][8] Correlation with Other Assets - The simultaneous decline of risk assets like Bitcoin and safe-haven assets like gold suggests a systemic liquidity issue, where investors are forced to liquidate assets for cash [9][10][11] - The current market environment indicates that various asset prices are increasingly correlated, reflecting a deeper liquidity pressure test [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the expectation of an economic cycle recovery is the most important theme for asset pricing this year, despite various influencing factors such as liquidity, regulatory policies, monetary policies, and risk appetite [1] Group 1: Economic Cycle Indicators - The resistance to the recovery of the economic cycle is diminishing, as indicated by leading indicators [1] - The slope of fundamental changes may be more critical for short-term asset performance [1] Group 2: Policy and Liquidity - The characteristics of short-term policies include a high utilization rate of effective fiscal policies, while incremental policies may focus on small-scale policy financial tools and loose monetary policies [1] - There is a risk of slowing M1 expansion, which may affect the willingness of active funds to enter the market [1]