Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is debating the legality of President Trump's tariffs, which could have significant economic implications for the country if ruled against the administration [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Context - The core dispute revolves around whether Trump can invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on trade partners, a power not explicitly granted for tariff imposition [1][2]. - If the court rules against the Trump administration, it may have to rely on more limited tariff laws and could face refund claims amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars [2]. Group 2: Supreme Court Proceedings - Chief Justice John Roberts questioned the government's reliance on a precedent that does not pertain to tariffs, emphasizing Congress's core power over taxation [3]. - Justices Barrett and Gorsuch expressed skepticism about the government's arguments, particularly regarding the broad application of tariffs to numerous countries [4][5]. Group 3: Government's Defense - The government's chief lawyer argued that the tariffs are regulatory rather than revenue-generating, asserting that they are necessary to address significant economic issues [6]. - The government faced challenges from liberal justices who pointed out the historical context of the IEEPA and questioned the interpretation of its powers [6]. Group 4: Opposition's Argument - The opposing lawyers argued that tariffs are indeed taxes and that the IEEPA should not undermine the established global tariff framework [7]. - They highlighted the disproportionate tariffs imposed on certain countries, such as a 39% tariff on Switzerland despite a trade surplus, and projected that these tariffs could generate an additional $3 trillion for the U.S. by 2035 [7]. Group 5: Case Background - The case was brought by a group of small businesses and 12 states, challenging Trump's authority to impose tariffs under the IEEPA [8].

华盛顿即将上演为期两天的美联储"大秀"，这场会议看起来更像是一场政治裁判的重量级对决，而不是 单纯的货币政策讨论。市场早已写好开场剧本——25个基点的降息几乎板上钉钉，50个基点的"耳语"依 然萦绕场馆。但在场外的喧嚣声中，人们关心的不只是利率，而是谁才是真正掌控全球最强大央行的 人。 市场会立刻察觉，如此分裂的投票表明，美联储的"重心"已断裂——不再是稳定的指南针，而是一道横 亘其间的政治断层。结果虽然仍是25个基点，但其象征意义远大于实际行动。 DLSMARKETS分析美联储利率决议可能的分布结果： [1.0%] 意外加息（标普-2% 至-4%） 特朗普再次在棋盘上落子。他的亲信斯蒂芬·米兰就在会议开始前几个小时，成功进入美联储决策层。 十二张投票权中，如今至少一票（甚至可能再加两票）带有明显的白宫印记。另一边则是丽莎·库克， 她曾是鸽派，如今却能与鹰派同飞。特朗普试图解雇她的努力被法院驳回，这提醒人们总统权力也有边 界。这已不只是货币政策，而是一场"权力分立"的真人秀，每一次波折都让美联储独立性的光环蒙上阴 影。 目前市场表现得相对冷静。亚洲股市隔夜再创新高，油价小幅走高，投资者演练着俄罗斯炼油厂遭袭后 ...