Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Mingming, believes that the liquidity in China's equity market has remained abundant since the introduction of swap facilities and stock repurchase increases, significantly boosting market confidence and maintaining a high level of investor risk appetite [1] Group 1: Market Liquidity - The two capital market support tools have a strong effect on boosting market performance and strengthening investor confidence [1] - The People's Bank of China could further enhance its focus on equity market liquidity in the future [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy should maintain a "moderately loose" stance, utilizing tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to keep macro liquidity stable [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The equity market has supportive policies and reserved incremental funds, with expected abundant capital liquidity. In 2026, the equity market liquidity is expected to remain strongly supported due to continuous loose signals from regulatory authorities and sufficient remaining incremental funds in the market [1][8]. - The constant equity - bond ETF may inject more liquidity into the market. It has great development potential in the convertible bond market, and it is expected that in 2026, constant equity - bond ETF products will be launched more rapidly, bringing more incremental funds to both the equity and convertible bond markets [1][10][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2026: A Year Still Supported by Strong Liquidity - Since the second half of 2024, with frequent capital market supportive policies, the broad - based indices of the equity market have grown steadily, and the scale of public funds under management has increased rapidly. As of the end of Q2 2025, it has increased by 10.65% compared to the same period last year. Insurance funds have also significantly increased their investment in the stock market since H2 2025 [1][8]. - The proportion of stock investment in the available funds of insurance companies is only 10%, and the margin trading balance is still in a relatively neutral range. Regulatory authorities have continuously released loose signals, indicating that the equity market liquidity will remain strongly supported in 2026 [1][8]. - The constant equity - bond ETF has shown better performance than general equity/pure - bond indices in most indicators over the past 10 years. It has great potential in the convertible bond market, and it is expected to bring more incremental funds to the market in 2026 [10][15][16]. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Slightly Weekly, and Valuations Were Passively Lifted Weekly Market Conditions - Last week, major stock indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.26%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.86%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.09%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.11%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.08%. There are 400 issued but un - matured convertible bonds, with a balance scale of 541.56 billion yuan [17]. - In the equity market, sectors showed mixed performance. Non - ferrous metals, communication, national defense and military industry, machinery and equipment, and non - bank finance led the gains, while textile and apparel, computer, food and beverage, real estate, and media led the losses. In the convertible bond market, half of the sectors rose, with national defense and military industry, non - bank finance, petroleum and petrochemical, machinery and equipment, and electronics leading the gains [21]. Valuation Performance - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.28 yuan, a 0.11% decrease from the previous Friday. The closing prices of equity - biased, bond - biased, and balanced convertible bonds showed different trends. The proportion of convertible bonds in the 120 - 130 (including 130) price range decreased significantly [26]. - The premium rates of convertible bonds of most ratings and scales increased. Terms and Supply: Three Convertible Bonds Announced Forced Redemption, with a Total Pending Issuance Scale of Approximately 18.3 Billion Yuan Terms - As of December 5, Limin, Xinhua, and Nenghui convertible bonds announced early redemption; Huamao, Yake, and Yong 02 convertible bonds announced no early redemption; Hugong and Shouhua convertible bonds announced that they are expected to meet the forced redemption conditions [2][49]. - Last week, no convertible bond issued a board - proposed downward revision bill announcement, and no convertible bond announced the downward revision result. Six convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and 16 convertible bonds announced that they are expected to trigger downward revision [2][49]. Primary Market - Last week, Puxin convertible bonds were issued with a scale of 243 million yuan, and no new convertible bonds were listed [3][52]. - Last week, 2 companies added board proposals, 3 companies passed the general meeting of shareholders, 2 companies passed the approval of the issuance review committee, and no new company was approved by the CSRC. Compared with the same period last year, the changes were +0, +3, +0, - 2 respectively [3][53]. - As of December 5, 6 listed companies have obtained convertible bond issuance approvals, with a proposed issuance scale of 4.475 billion yuan. 8 listed companies have passed the issuance review committee, with a total scale of 9.81 billion yuan. Last week, Zuoli Pharmaceutical and Zhongding Co., Ltd. added board proposals, with a total scale of 4.056 billion yuan [3][60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The M1 growth rate is expected to peak in September, with various factors contributing to its fluctuations, including fiscal contributions and base effects from previous years [3][4]. - The analysis indicates that the current financial data suggests a cautious outlook for liquidity, with M1 and other liquidity indicators likely reaching their high points [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal policies and real estate stabilization trends for future M1 growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - M1 growth is primarily driven by fiscal contributions, with a notable increase of 5.5 trillion yuan year-on-year from September last year to August this year [2]. - The report highlights that M1's year-on-year growth has rebounded by 9.3 percentage points, largely due to fiscal and base effects [2][3]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the peak of social financing growth has passed, and fiscal strength is beginning to decline year-on-year [3]. - It notes that if fiscal budgets do not increase, the fourth quarter may see a negative contribution to M1 growth, indicating a potential peak in September [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to adopt a long-term perspective and balanced allocation, focusing on banks with superior free cash flow and asset quality [9]. - It suggests that the banking sector is expected to provide annualized returns and Sharpe ratios that exceed the overall market, making it a favorable investment area [9].