证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 2026 年依然是强流动性支撑的年份 ——可转债周报 20251209 ❖ 权益市场有呵护政策也有储备增量资金，预期资金流动性充裕。自 2024 年下 半年以来，资本市场呵护政策频出，权益市场各大宽基指数稳健增长，市场信 心逐渐积累。对应的则是公募基金管理规模快速增长，截至 2025Q2 末已较去 年同期增长 10.65%。此外，相对稳健的保险资金在 2025H2 也开始显著增加对 股票市场的投资，其中财险和人身险对股票投资额由 2024 年末的 2.43 万亿元 增加至 3.62 万亿元。 债券研究 展望 2026 年，一方面，险资（财险+人身险）可运用资金余额中股票投资仅占 10%；两融余额虽然看似已增长较多，但从担保比例及成交额占比看依然在相 对中性的区间内。另一方面，12 月 5 日国家金融监督管理总局发布通知，下 调保险公司相关业务风险因子；12 月 6 日，证监会主席吴清表示监管层面将 强化分类监管，对优质机构优化评价指标、适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限。监 管机构持续释放宽松信号且市场剩余增量资金也充足，预期 2026 年权益市场 流动性将延续强支撑。 ❖ 股债 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The M1 growth rate is expected to peak in September, with various factors contributing to its fluctuations, including fiscal contributions and base effects from previous years [3][4]. - The analysis indicates that the current financial data suggests a cautious outlook for liquidity, with M1 and other liquidity indicators likely reaching their high points [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal policies and real estate stabilization trends for future M1 growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - M1 growth is primarily driven by fiscal contributions, with a notable increase of 5.5 trillion yuan year-on-year from September last year to August this year [2]. - The report highlights that M1's year-on-year growth has rebounded by 9.3 percentage points, largely due to fiscal and base effects [2][3]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the peak of social financing growth has passed, and fiscal strength is beginning to decline year-on-year [3]. - It notes that if fiscal budgets do not increase, the fourth quarter may see a negative contribution to M1 growth, indicating a potential peak in September [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to adopt a long-term perspective and balanced allocation, focusing on banks with superior free cash flow and asset quality [9]. - It suggests that the banking sector is expected to provide annualized returns and Sharpe ratios that exceed the overall market, making it a favorable investment area [9].