Group 1: Macro Insights - The report indicates a positive outlook for the economy, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and growth [5][11] - The report highlights a shift in focus towards promoting stable economic growth as a key consideration for monetary policy, indicating that a weakening economic fundamental may trigger further monetary easing [5] - The report discusses the impact of "deposit outflow" on liquidity, noting that while it affects the structure of bank liabilities, it does not significantly alter the overall liquidity situation in the financial system [5] Group 2: Price Trends - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate fell to 0.2%, influenced by seasonal factors, while the core CPI showed improvement, reaching its highest level in six months [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, marking four consecutive months of growth [3] - The report anticipates a rebound in CPI readings for February, with an expected annual average around 0.7%, while core CPI is projected to remain strong, driven by factors such as gold prices and consumer services [3] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The average interest rate for new loans in Q4 2025 was reported at 3.15%, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous quarter, indicating a continued downward trend in overall interest rates [8][11] - The report suggests that the banking sector will experience a significant repricing of deposits in 2026, which is expected to optimize funding costs and support a narrowing of interest margins [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of financial support for key sectors to stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on maintaining a stable lending environment [11] Group 4: Industry Performance - The report identifies the top-performing industries in January, with the oil and petrochemical sector leading at 17.3%, followed by construction materials at 14.5% and basic chemicals at 7.7% [1] - Conversely, the report notes the underperforming sectors, including defense and military, which saw a decline of 12.7% in January, and the computer sector, which fell by 8.2% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the strategy differentiation of major financial institutions will reshape the bond market landscape. The trading attributes of banks will be enhanced, and the pressure to exchange floating profits will be reduced. If the regulatory constraints on interest - rate sensitivity indicators are relaxed, it may provide long - term bond allocation space for banks. Securities firms' proprietary trading will continue the aggressive strategy of "bond foundation, equity enhancement" with regulatory support. Wealth management will fully enter the "true net - value" era, with product closure and defensive allocation becoming the mainstream. Public funds are expected to repair the liability side through the new fee regulations, the duration strategy may be reopened, and the use of hedging tools will increase. Insurance institutions will focus on long - term allocation, increasing their allocation of long - duration interest - rate bonds and high - dividend assets. The overall trading attributes of the market will be enhanced, and the allocation strategies will gradually diversify [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bank - Overall, it shows the characteristics of "configuration adjustment and trading enhancement". In 2026, if China follows the Basel regulatory new rules, large banks are expected to release about 1 trillion yuan of government bond allocation space, and the ability to undertake long - term bonds will be marginally improved. The trading attributes of state - owned large banks are gradually strengthening, and they will continue to maintain high trading activity in 2026. If the cost - performance of inter - bank certificates of deposit rises in the future, the bond - allocation strength of rural commercial banks may moderately recover [15]. - Constrained by the deepening of the asset - liability term mismatch, the ability of large banks to undertake long - term bonds is limited. However, if China implements the adjusted international regulatory standards, it is estimated that about 1 trillion yuan of bond - allocation capacity will be added for large banks. In 2025, the AC account proportion of various banks decreased, and the OCI account proportion increased. In 2026, although the pressure on banks to make up for the performance gap by realizing floating profits will weaken, there are still incentives to realize floating profits [16][21]. - State - owned large banks' trading volume of 7 - 10Y treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds in 2025 increased, and the proportion of trading volume also increased compared with the previous two years, showing an active trading strategy. It is expected that this high trading activity will continue in 2026 [29]. - Since the beginning of 2025, affected by the new capital regulations and the decline in the cost - performance of certificates of deposit, the bond - allocation behavior of rural commercial banks in the secondary market has significantly shrunk. If the cost - performance of certificates of deposit recovers and the capital occupation pressure eases in 2026, the bond - allocation strength may moderately recover [32][33]. 3.2 Wealth Management - In 2026, wealth management will fully enter the "true net - value" operation mechanism. In terms of products, "fixed - income +", closed - end and minimum holding - period products will be used to deal with net - value fluctuations; in terms of operation, the management requirements for duration, leverage and liquidity will continue to increase, and the asset allocation will focus on stability and term matching [40]. - In 2026, in the context of low - interest rates and the full - completion of valuation rectification, the scale and number of "fixed - income +" products are expected to continue to grow. The proportion of "fixed - income +" products in fixed - income wealth management is expected to rise steadily [41][42]. - After the full - completion of valuation rectification, the net - value stability constraint of wealth management products has been significantly enhanced. The closed - end and quasi - closed - end operation characteristics of new products are expected to be further strengthened in 2026 [44]. - In 2026, wealth management institutions will pay more attention to the liquidity safety cushion. The proportion of high - liquidity assets in wealth management asset allocation is likely to remain relatively high [50]. - In 2026, wealth management drawdown is expected to be controllable and will change around interest - rate fluctuations. Wealth management institutions may deepen the application of multi - asset allocation strategies to reduce the impact of bond - market fluctuations on net value [52]. - In 2026, the allocation value of amortized - cost bond funds will be further highlighted. The re - investment demand of the expired funds of amortized - cost bond funds is expected to support the short - end credit - bond market [58]. 3.3 Public Funds - In 2026, with the implementation of the new fee regulations for public funds, the bond - market sentiment is expected to be moderately repaired, and the stability improvement of the liability side may create conditions for reopening the duration strategy. The development of innovative tools such as stock - bond constant ETFs is expected to introduce incremental funds, and the number of funds using the negative - duration strategy may increase. The supervision of customized funds and dividend mechanisms will continue to be optimized [65]. - In 2025, the leverage ratio of bond funds decreased, and the duration fluctuated greatly. In 2026, the liability - side and asset - side durations of public funds are expected to increase [66]. - The implementation of the new fee regulations for public funds in 2026 is expected to promote the moderate repair of the bond market and the internal optimization of the bond - fund pattern [71]. - In 2026, the pure - bond fund market may face product - pattern adjustment. The smooth development of stock - bond constant ETFs may bring incremental funds to the equity and interest - rate bond markets and weaken the traditional "stock - bond seesaw" effect in the short term [76]. - In 2026, the number of funds using the negative - duration strategy may increase to manage risk exposure in the context of low - interest rates and high volatility in the bond market [79]. - In 2026, there is still room for optimization of customized funds and dividend mechanisms in the public - fund industry. The regulatory authorities may put forward rectification requirements for customized funds with a high institutional - holding ratio and optimize the dividend mechanism [82][84]. 3.4 Insurance - In 2026, the investment strategy of insurance institutions is expected to shift from "trading" to "allocation - based". The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds such as treasury bonds has declined, and the asset - allocation structure will be further optimized [87]. - In 2025, affected by the regulatory reduction of the liability - side pricing ceiling, new - policy attractiveness weakened, and premium growth slowed down. Insurance funds preferred a Carry - based strategy, with a decline in the turnover rate of interest - rate bonds and a stable or rising allocation weight [88]. - As of Q3 2025, bonds still accounted for more than 50% of insurance - fund asset allocation, but the growth rate of equity investment was relatively fast. In 2026, if the new fee regulations weaken the cost - performance of bond funds, some insurance funds may shift to equity assets, but it will not significantly affect their bond - market allocation [94]. - In 2026, under the dual - system drive of the new asset - liability regulations and new accounting standards, insurance institutions will significantly increase their allocation of long - duration interest - rate bonds and high - grade general credit bonds and reduce the allocation of bank Tier 2 capital bonds. The proportion of participating insurance is expected to continue to increase, and the equity - asset allocation will focus on high - dividend and low - valuation stocks [100][101]. 3.5 Securities Firms' Proprietary Trading - In 2026, the bond - allocation of securities firms' proprietary trading will continue to focus on interest - rate bonds and high - grade credit bonds, and the equity - allocation is expected to achieve "both quantity and quality improvement" under regulatory encouragement, with a preference for standardized products such as broad - based index constituent stocks and liquid ETFs [103]. - From March 2021 to November 2025, the bond - holding scale of securities firms' proprietary trading increased, and the proportion of interest - rate bonds rose. In 2026, the bond - holding scale is expected to continue to grow, and the credit - bond allocation will continue to concentrate on high - grade bonds [104][105]. - In 2025, the floating - profit scale of securities firms' proprietary trading turned from negative to positive, and they showed advantages in stop - profit operation and holding - cost control [109]. - Regulatory support for securities firms' proprietary trading to increase equity - asset allocation has increased. In 2026, securities firms may further increase their equity - asset allocation, with a possible preference for standardized products [114].

主要内容 股债恒定指数有哪些? ■ | 不无限 | 12.2 | Carl | 11-8-14 | 77 | 中证件值股價值; | 中国外国际管理会组合 | 沪漫300 | 中证 50 债券登数 | 無十年的家家以以我便應 | 日正的值段感情 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证或长股份值; | 中正成长胶骨值走组合 | 中文500 | 中证 50 债券指数 | 本年就知量不可能感想 | 中证模长胶做值) | 中区汇利股價值 | | | | | | 中正汇到服债场变进台 | 中运足彩金收照教 | 就在家庭到激烈便是我都能在年50日世 | 国区域中国 | 中证汇制服务位 | 中证汇利股價值 | 上述到的感情 | | | | | | 上正式制度假面定组会 | 上证定利金收益有资 | 上述 0-5年要到設計學學生生活教 | 表示是平衡 | 上述如何度值; | 上证汇利股價值; | 中区汇利低波股债债 | | | | | | 中国汇别低波度假值危险合 | 中证 800 汇利低波动金收壁指数 | 中运国债券数 ...

Group 1 - The bond ETF market experienced significant growth in 2025, with total market size reaching 829 billion yuan, an increase of over 655 billion yuan from the end of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 377% [7][10] - The average weekly trading volume of bond ETFs exceeded 150 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 311% [7] - By the end of 2025, the sizes of credit bond ETFs, interest rate bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs were 615.2 billion yuan, 152.8 billion yuan, and 61 billion yuan, respectively [10][14] Group 2 - In 2025, the majority of bond ETFs were trading at premiums, with local government bond ETFs generally trading at discounts, indicating varying demand dynamics [18][21] - The credit bond ETF market saw a transition from premium to discount, particularly after the introduction of the first batch of sci-tech innovation bond ETFs, which diverted funds from the market [21][28] Group 3 - The performance of interest rate bond ETFs was under pressure in 2025, with overall returns declining compared to 2024, and the maximum drawdown for various products increased [30][32] - Short-duration products outperformed long-duration ones, with the best annualized return for short-duration government bond ETFs reaching 0.86% and a maximum drawdown of only 0.91% [30][31] - The annualized returns of three existing credit bond ETF products decreased, but the decline was less severe compared to interest rate bond ETFs [33]

www.swsresearch.com 2 ◼ 指数化投资买入多资产时代：2025年1月26日，中国证监会正式印发《促进资本市场指数化投资高质量发展行动方案》（以下简称《行动方案》），明确将"稳慎推进指数产品创新"作为重点 任务，其中"研究推出多资产ETF"被列为创新方向之一。中证、中债、国证等指数公司在相关指数上早有储备，涵盖恒定比例、目标风险、目标日期、风险控制、风险平价等多资产指数，并 在2025年年内发行较多股债恒定比例指数。 ◼ 股债恒定指数的基本特征：股票部分聚焦传统宽基+红利低波/自由现金流指数；债券部分主要是利率债指数，其中中证国债指数、中债新综合指数久期较长；以2025年以来发布的股债恒定指 数为样本，跟踪其近三年的收益风险特征表现，整体上看大幅优于二级债基指数，但是不同权益仓位的股债恒定指数所对应的风险等级差异较大，权益仓位10%及以内的产品可以做到回撤控制 在1.5%以内、年化收益在3%-5%之间，类似低波固收+的特征，而不同系列中现金流类股债恒定指数的calmar比较高，吸引力更强。 ◼ 股债恒定ETF的优势：1）管理费率优势：股债恒定ETF主要用以替代固收+基金，目前主流的固收+产品 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 股债恒定ETF增强策略创新 ——泛固收资产配置研究系列之一 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 栾强 A0230524110003 2026.1.25 主要内容 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 风险提示：模型计算可能存在误差，指标选取可能不够全面，历史回测不代表未来 ◼ 从理论模型和期权定价例证角度出发，都可以印证再平衡策略的波动率空头属性。 ◼ 基于此，我们设计了一个基于波动率敞口的再平衡择时策略，根据波动率变化规律调整组合的做空波动率敞口。 • 做空波动率策略在训练样本（2016-2020年）表现较好，收益、回撤、波动的表现都要更优；但是在测试样本（2021-2026.01）表现并 不理想，尽管降低了回撤和波动，但收益有所损失。 • 原因可能在于股债再平衡策略占优的假设依赖，有时候可能与实际市场环境并不一致。 • 股债再平衡的优势，依赖于股债之间大部分情况下呈现的"此消彼长"关系，因此，可以在此基础上开展"高抛低吸"操作。但是，如果 这一假设条件变得并不稳定，股债再平衡策略的表现也会打折扣。 ◼ 因此，需要考虑到股债两类资产可能产生的趋势性差 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The fixed income strategy is facing challenges due to increased interest rate volatility, leading to the ineffectiveness of single-duration strategies and limited space for credit spreads. The fixed income plus strategy is gaining attention, but the traditional fixed income plus sector is limited in capacity and facing a contraction issue [1][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Mixed Investment Strategy**: A mixed investment strategy combining stocks and bonds can optimize risk and return. International experiences, such as the Morningstar Core Plus Bond fund, suggest that increasing equity assets can enhance returns. The long-term return of China's equity market is promising, but it is characterized by high volatility. The National Social Security Fund has achieved an average annual return of 7.39% through mixed investments [1][5]. - **Policy Guidance for Long-term Funds**: Policies guiding long-term funds into the market are encouraging institutions to increase equity allocations. Large insurance companies are expected to invest 30% of new premiums into A-shares annually. By the end of 2025, the proportion of stock and fund investments by life insurance companies is projected to reach about 15%, resulting in an estimated annual inflow of over 100 billion yuan into the A-share market [1][6]. - **Impact of Incremental Funds**: Incremental funds are expected to have a rapid corrective effect on undervalued assets. For instance, the banking sector is favored by insurance funds due to its low valuation and high dividends, with the price-to-book ratio expected to recover from 0.52 to 0.74, indicating a cumulative increase of nearly 64% from 2024 to 2025 [1][7]. - **Valuation Comparison**: As of November 2025, the PE TTM of the CSI 300 index is 13.92, significantly lower than the S&P 500 index at 28. This indicates that Chinese equity assets offer high cost-performance compared to global markets [1][8]. - **Concentration in Growth Sectors**: The ChiNext board focuses on high-end manufacturing, with the top seven constituent stocks being leading blue-chip companies. The dynamic PE for 2026 is expected to be around 25 times, reflecting an increase in concentration and a slow bull market similar to the Nasdaq 100 index [1][4][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Challenges for Traditional Fixed Income Strategies**: The traditional fixed income strategies are challenged by increased interest rate volatility and limited credit spread expansion, making it difficult for investors to find yield [2][3]. - **Emerging Tools in Fixed Income Plus Market**: New tools in the fixed income plus market include convertible bond ETFs and a focus on fixed proportion stock-bond ETFs, which are expected to attract long-term capital due to their low fees and high transparency [1][13][14]. - **Rebalancing Strategy Benefits**: Implementing a rebalancing strategy can significantly reduce the volatility of an asset portfolio, enhancing overall stability by adjusting asset proportions based on market movements [1][18]. - **Future of Multi-Asset Allocation**: The trend towards multi-asset allocation is characterized by high transparency and liquidity, which will lower the entry barriers for individual investors and promote innovation among institutions [1][25]. - **Performance of Dividend Low Volatility Index**: The dividend low volatility index has shown stable historical performance, with a 5-year annualized return of 4% and a volatility of only 1%, indicating its robustness compared to other indices [1][24]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the fixed income and equity markets, as well as the implications of policy changes and investment strategies.

Core Insights - The event held by Jiufang Zhituo focused on investment opportunities and challenges in the context of China's economic landscape as it transitions into the 14th Five-Year Plan's conclusion and the 15th Five-Year Plan's initiation [1][2] Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to maintain a growth rate of 4% to 5% in 2026, supported by fiscal policies and technological advancements [1][4] - The global economy is projected to continue its stable recovery, with the U.S. economy growing around 3% and Europe experiencing moderate recovery [4] Policy and Market Dynamics - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes stabilizing economic growth, enhancing consumption rates above 50%, and driving industrial upgrades through technological innovation [4][6] - The capital market is shifting from a "financing main channel" to a "capital allocation hub," focusing on innovation and balanced investment [11] Investment Opportunities - High-end manufacturing, technology consumption, and artificial intelligence are identified as key sectors for structural investment opportunities [1][4] - The A-share market is expected to see a growth range of 10% to 20% in 2026, with a focus on technology, resources, and consumer sectors [10][12] Sector-Specific Insights - The AI sector is anticipated to shift from upstream computing power to downstream applications, with significant investment opportunities in mobile technology and AI healthcare applications [14][19] - The precious metals market is expected to remain strong, with gold and silver benefiting from ongoing demand and market dynamics [15][21] Technological Advancements - The fourth technological revolution, characterized by AI, green energy, and quantum information, positions China to potentially lead in new technological arenas during the 15th Five-Year Plan [7][19] - The nuclear fusion sector is highlighted as a strategic focus, with significant investment opportunities in companies involved in core equipment and large scientific projects [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the diversified financial sector [2] Core Insights - The public fund industry is undergoing a systematic and high-quality transformation, shifting from a scale-oriented approach to a focus on long-term returns, driven by regulatory reforms and market dynamics [4][13] - By 2030, the total AUM (Assets Under Management) in the industry is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, with growth primarily fueled by deeper financial asset allocation by residents and the acceleration of long-term capital inflows [8][16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The public fund industry has seen a significant transformation since 2023, with reforms focusing on fee reductions, performance benchmarks, and management practices, leading to a restructuring of the operational logic from scale to long-term returns [4][5] Reform Progress - The reforms initiated in 2023 have transitioned from cost constraints to a comprehensive restructuring of the investment research, sales, assessment, and product logic, with a focus on investor returns [5][17] Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue of the public fund industry decreased from 262.5 billion yuan in 2021 to approximately 200 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 21% decline due to fee reductions and changes in trading behavior [6][27] - The average management fee and trading commission rates have significantly declined, with management fees remaining the core revenue source but showing a decreasing contribution from actively managed equity funds [6][15] Asset Growth and Structure - As of Q3 2025, the total net asset value of public funds reached 36.09 trillion yuan, a 12% increase from the beginning of the year, with the proportion of public funds to GDP rising from 7% in 2014 to 27% in 2025 [7][36] - The growth in the industry is primarily driven by equity and money market funds, with a notable increase in the share of industry and thematic ETFs [7][14] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that passive investment, particularly through ETFs, will continue to dominate the industry, while active management will focus on boutique strategies to achieve sustainable alpha [8][16] - The integration of AI technology across the investment research, trading, sales, and risk control processes is expected to enhance the competitive advantages of leading firms [8][16]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the fixed income market, particularly focusing on the bond market dynamics and the implications for various financial institutions, including banks and insurance companies [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Supply and Demand Pressure**: The supply-demand structure for bonds is under pressure, with local government bond issuance at historical highs and major banks nearing their issuance limits. This situation raises concerns about potential supply-demand gaps [1][2][5]. 2. **Long-term Bond Selling**: Funds have been continuously selling long-term bonds, with a net sell-off of approximately 60 billion, bringing the duration of medium to long-term interest rate bonds back to levels seen in early April [1][3][4]. 3. **Projected Financing Needs**: For the upcoming year, the net financing volume is expected to increase to between 6.76 trillion and 6.8 trillion, indicating a significant rise in overall financing needs [1][5]. 4. **Insurance Sector Adjustments**: The insurance sector is expected to see a decrease in demand for ultra-long-term bonds by about 200 billion due to a shift towards higher dividend insurance products in a low-interest-rate environment [1][6][7]. 5. **Banking Sector Trends**: If banks maintain their current bond purchase ratios, their share in the market may decrease by approximately 100 billion [1][7]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Volatility**: The bond market is anticipated to experience volatility, particularly in the long-term segment, as the demand from funds and insurance companies is expected to weaken [1][3][6]. 2. **Credit Bond Market Performance**: The credit bond market has shown a lackluster performance, with credit spreads widening as funds continue to favor short-term credit bonds [3][12][13]. 3. **Investment Strategies**: Recommendations for investment strategies include waiting for favorable conditions before making significant investments in long-term bonds and focusing on short to medium-term bonds for better liquidity and stability [11][16]. 4. **Impact of Regulatory Changes**: Regulatory adjustments, such as changes in fund sales fees and customized fund regulations, are expected to influence demand for bonds with maturities of 4-5 years, potentially increasing volatility [15][16]. 5. **Market Sentiment and Future Outlook**: The sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations that the supply-demand gap could reach approximately 700 billion, necessitating measures such as relaxing central bank liquidity indicators to alleviate pressure [8][10]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the fixed income market and its participants.