货币政策宽松预期受限，市场担忧政府债供给放量，山东债单日供给近 千亿，引发市场对筹码结构不稳固的担忧，空头力量未完全消退。 2026 年初债市预计震荡，十年国债利率波动区间 1.75%-1.85%，30 年国债利率约 2.3%。社融增速预计小幅上升 0.1%，政府债净融资预计 超万亿，银行杠杆票息策略空间有限。 通胀方面，小金属和贵金属价格上涨对 PPI 影响有限，因有色金属在 PPI 权重较低。预计 2026 年一季度 PPI 不会连续为正，明年 2 月 CPI 同比 预计达 1.5%，受春节错位和技术问题影响。 股市春节躁动对债市压力可控，单周涨幅超 10%才会对债券收益率产生 明显压力。央行通过流动性宽松和买入操作维稳市场，大型银行和保险 公司积极配置，无需过度担心政府债供给。 当前阶段应注重空间选择而非时间选择，十年国债利率区间 1.75%- 1.85%，30 年国债约 2.3%。银行杠杆票息策略舒适，调控空间有限， 应关注具体投资品种及其位置。 Q&A 2025 年债券市场在年底出现了较大调整，主要原因是什么？ 固收- 1 月债市展望 20251229 摘要 2025 年年底债券市场的调整主要有两个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed trading of government bonds, leading to a stable performance in the bond market, with yields showing mixed movements across different maturities [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Bond Market Performance - On November 11, the bond market saw a general decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to 1.8040%, down 0.1 basis points from the previous trading day [1][3]. - The 30-year government bond yield increased by 0.6 basis points to 2.1525%, while the 5-year yield decreased by 0.25 basis points to 1.5250% [3]. PBOC's Actions and Market Impact - The PBOC's resumption of government bond trading is aimed at supporting year-end fiscal liquidity and enhancing control over the yield curve, with a net purchase of 20 billion yuan in October [4][5]. - The scale of PBOC's bond purchases is relatively small, which limits its impact on market supply and demand, resulting in a stable interest rate environment [4]. Market Expectations and Future Outlook - Analysts expect the bond market to experience a range-bound fluctuation for the remainder of the year, influenced by regulatory policies, capital flows, and spillover effects from the stock market [1][6]. - The market's reaction to the PBOC's bond trading resumption has been muted, as expectations were already well-formed prior to the actual implementation [4][6]. Liquidity and Interest Rates - On November 11, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) saw an increase across various maturities, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [6]. - The PBOC's recent operations, including a 403.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase agreement, reflect ongoing efforts to manage liquidity in the market [5][6].