Pepperstone研究主管Chris Weston表示，"市场高度关注每位美联储票委的立场及其对12月降息的看法。 鉴于市场（和美联储）尚未拿到通常会影响其政策决定的数据，这是合理的。也许最大的未知数是鲍威 尔本人的观点，但总的来说，人们可以假设他会投票支持12月降息。"到目前为止，降息押注的突然转 变对美元的影响有限。美联储官员对下一步可能采取的行动仍存在分歧，因为该行仍没拿到全套数据。 Weston说："在劳动力市场脆弱、美国短期和长期通胀预期都在下降的情况下，12月维持利率不变将是 一种脱节，市场可能反应不佳。" 4. 瑞穗证券："哈塞特"效应或令美元承压 瑞穗证券分析师瓦拉坦说，由于美联储降息的可能性大幅上升，美元保持稳定，但随着哈塞特被提名为 下一任美联储主席的可能性大幅上升，美元汇率出现下跌。市场似乎并未质疑美联储的独立性，美联储 威廉姆斯、沃勒和戴利都支持12月降息。不过，瓦拉坦指出，投资者正在消化哈塞特可能导致美联储政 治化的因素。他说，"哈塞特效应"可能会给美元蒙上阴影，并补充说，只要美联储主席任命的这种政治 上顺从的看法没有消除，美元的贬值风险仍然很高。 国外 1. 瑞银资管：中国股票 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a rare six-month consecutive rise, leading investors to face a dilemma of whether to take profits or continue to invest heavily [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has remained above the 50-day moving average for 125 consecutive trading days, marking the longest streak since 2011 [1][4] - The index has increased by 38% since early April, adding $17 trillion to its market capitalization, resulting in high valuations and increased market positions [1] - Historical data suggests that the best six months for U.S. stocks typically begin in November, raising questions about whether the current gains have already been priced in [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Dan Vantrobuski, a technical strategist, warns that the S&P 500 is in a precarious position and could drop by up to 10% before the end of December [1][5] - The current streak of 125 days is close to the second-longest in this century, which was 149 days in February 2007 [5] - The upcoming days are critical as major tech companies will report quarterly earnings and the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision [5] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Concerns are growing regarding the valuations of large tech companies, with the 200-day moving average appearing stretched, indicating potential sell-offs [6] - Despite the high valuations, market sentiment remains slightly pessimistic due to ongoing trade war concerns and fears of a potential credit crisis [9] - The average increase for the S&P 500 in November over the past 30 years is approximately 2.5%, making it the strongest month for stock performance [9]