华尔街股票分析师向来以看涨立场著称，但他们对 2026 年的乐观程度，眼下正引发部分市场观察人士 的担忧。 彭博社整理的数据显示，各大机构的卖方策略师发布的标普 500 指数年终目标位，出现了近十年来最集 中的情况。其中奥本海默公司给出的最高目标位为 8100 点，斯蒂菲尔・尼科拉乌斯公司给出的最低目 标位为 7000 点，全年预期的差距仅为 16%。 "这种预期的高度统一和集中，让我感到担忧。" 盈透证券首席策略师史蒂夫・索斯尼克表示，"如果所 有人都预期同一种结果，那么从定义上来说，这种预期已经反映在当前的市场价格中了 —— 尤其是当 这些共识预期的依据，往往都建立在降息、减税以及人工智能持续领跑等相似的逻辑基础之上。" 奥本海默和德意志银行预计，到 2026 年 12 月底，标普 500 指数将突破 8000 点大关。即便是斯蒂菲尔 和美国银行给出的相对保守的 7000 点和 7100 点目标位，相较于上周五的收盘价，也意味着一定的上涨 空间。 分析师的看涨立场，主要基于经济增长将带动企业盈利回升的判断。乐观派认为，减税和放松监管的政 策将提振经济活动，同时美联储预计还将实施两次 25 个基点的降息。而 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 华尔街的股票预测者向来以乐观著称，但他们目前对2026年的乐观程度之高，已引起部分市场观察人士 的担忧。 根据彭博社汇总的数据，各大机构的卖方策略师对标普500指数年底目标的预测值正处于近10年来的最 紧密水平。其中，奥本海默给出的最高预测值为8100点，而Stifel给出的最低预测值为7000点，年度展 望的差距仅为16%。 通常情况下，这种整齐划一的观点被视为反向指标——当所有人的预期都趋于一致时，市场的失衡往往 会自我修正。与此同时，市场风险依然显而易见：通胀仍高于美联储的目标，这使得货币政策宽松的预 期极易受到打击；失业率在最近几个月稳步上升；此外，大规模的人工智能（AI）支出尚未转化为实 际收益。 华尔街对2026年的股市预测一致看好且高度趋同。 盈透证券首席策略师索斯尼克（Steve Sosnick）表示："预测的高度一致和趋同令我感到不安。如果所 有人的预期都一样，那么从定义上讲，这种预期已经反映在市场定价中了。尤其是当共识展望的逻辑往 往建立在降息、减税和人工智能持续领先等类似基础上时，情况更是如此。" ...

Group 1 - Current spot gold trading is around $4,191.59 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.28% from earlier levels, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - A significant long-term market forecast predicts gold prices will reach $10,000 per ounce by the end of 2029, with the S&P 500 index also expected to hit 10,000 points [2] - The report highlights that gold prices have surged past $3,000 this year, with expectations to stabilize above $4,000, and a potential rise to $5,000 by the end of 2026 [2] Group 2 - Gold is currently experiencing narrow fluctuations while attempting to gain bullish momentum, with a key resistance level at $4,225 [3] - The price movement is supported by trading above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), reinforcing the stability of the short-term bullish trend [3] - The relative strength index (RSI) indicates an extreme oversold level, suggesting a potential bullish wave if positive technical signals emerge [4]

Group 1 - Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, predicts that gold prices will reach $10,000 per ounce and the S&P 500 index will hit 10,000 points by the end of 2029 [1][4] - Key factors driving this bullish outlook include economic instability and geopolitical events, leading to increased demand for gold [1] - Central banks are continuously buying gold, with 95% planning to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, and 43% intending to actively raise their gold allocation, the highest level since 2019 [1] Group 2 - Yardeni notes that gold prices are in an upward channel, with the next price surge expected to begin in mid-2026, targeting $5,000 per ounce by the end of next year [1] - The S&P 500 index is currently at 6,849.72 points, having increased by 0.3% as of the latest market close [4] - The relationship between gold and the S&P 500 is typically negative in the short term, but their long-term trends are nearly identical [4] Group 3 - Yardeni expresses no opinion on Bitcoin, referring to it as "digital gold" and previously likening it to "digital tulips," indicating uncertainty in its valuation [5] - The company highlights the growing role of cryptocurrency ETFs and regulated investment tools in the market [5] - The impact of the Genius Act, signed by President Trump, is noted, as it establishes new rules for issuing stablecoins backed by U.S. liquid assets, which may reduce demand for Bitcoin trading [5]

从世界末日到狂欢：一个月内策略师完全转向，华尔街大型投行集体"认错"。 随着特朗普关税政策的戏剧性转向，华尔街分析师被迫快速修改其股市和经济预测，呈现出前所未有的 频繁变动。 摩根大通、高盛双双回撤衰退预测 摩根大通的首席经济学家Michael Feroli昨日宣布，他正在放弃一个月前做出的经济衰退预测。 在中美在经贸领域达成重要共识后，Feroli连夜"改报告"，将全年GDP增长预期从0.2%上调至0.6%， 并将衰退风险评估下调至"远低于50%"，同时将2025年首次降息预期从9月推迟至12月。 短短一个月前，由于特朗普对全球发起关税战并引发了股市抛售潮，华尔街策略师们以疯狂的速度下调 了对标普500指数和美国经济的预测。 但本周"画风突变"——特朗普政府改变方向，最近甚至与中国达成了暂时降低双方关税的协议。这迫使 同一批策略师不得不对其预测进行180度大转弯。 华尔街资深专家、Yardeni Research创始人Ed Yardeni对此表示： "这确实是一次疯狂的旅程，我很少改变我的预测，但这次我告诉客户，我保留根据总统改 变主意的频率来改变我的预测的权利。" 讽刺的是，这不是Feroli第一次"错判 ...