Industry Insights - The U.S. government, under President Trump, is reportedly discussing measures to restrict Chinese pharmaceuticals, including drafting an executive order aimed at limiting the entry of innovative Chinese drugs into the U.S. market [1] - Goldman Sachs' latest report indicates that this situation could introduce "headline risk" to the Chinese biotech and pharmaceutical sector, potentially increasing stock price volatility [1] Company Specifics - Shares of 基石药业-B (2616.HK) experienced a significant drop of 22.88%, reaching a low of 9.1 HKD, marking the lowest point since August 25 [1] - Recent disclosures from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reveal that non-executive director 胡正国 sold 223,000 shares at an average price of 12.007 HKD per share on September 5, totaling approximately 2.678 million HKD. Following this transaction, his ownership percentage decreased from 0.18% to 0.17% [1]

高盛发表报告表示，纽约时报报道称，美国总统特朗普的政府正讨论限制中国药品，并草拟一份行政命 令(EO)，旨在通过多项措施限制中国原创新药进入美国市场。虽然该行对任何行政命令或提案的最终结 果没有立场，亦无法预测其潜在下步行动、实施方式及途径(尤其文章提到美国大型药企正在积极游说 反对该行政命令)，但认为这将为中国生物科技/医药板块带来"标题风险"(headline risk)，并加剧股价波 动，需继续密切关注特朗普政府未来数月的医药政策动向。 就潜在短期股价风险而言，该行分为三类企业分析。第一类是已具备全球布局的企业(如百济神州、传 奇生物)：预计影响有限，因这类公司已在美国等市场建立稳固根基，市场对其新增交易预期较低。第 二类是已有强劲全球合作伙伴的企业(如科伦博泰生物、三生制药、翰森制药、恒瑞医药)：由于行政命 令主要针对新授权交易，已达成授权的资产影响较小。第三类是对外授权预期高但尚未落地的企业，可 细分为两类——计划推进全球临床的企业(如信达生物、再鼎医药、石药集团)：这类公司有机会通过全 球临床产生差异化数据，提升管线临床价值，对全球合作伙伴仍具吸引力；无意或无法开展全球临床的 企业(如歌礼制药、德 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid rebound in global stock markets is characterized as a typical bear market rally, indicating that investors will face pain regardless of market direction [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - High volatility in stock prices is primarily driven by short-term news headlines and speculation regarding the evolving U.S. tariff policies and their impact on corporate earnings and valuations [1] - The current risk-reward ratio for stock investments is deemed unfavorable, with significant uncertainty prevailing among investors regarding long-term bullish or bearish consensus [1][6] - Historical data shows that bear market rallies typically last an average of 44 days with an average gain of 14%, while the recent rebound since April 7 has seen an 18% increase [3][4] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Market participants are caught in a dilemma of either chasing a fading rally or missing out on potential gains, leading to increased difficulty in decision-making [3] - Many investors have been forced to reduce risk exposure due to unclear tariff prospects, only to be compelled to buy at higher prices later [3][6] - Retail investors have significantly increased their risk exposure, with record buying intensity observed in individual stocks and ETFs [9] Group 3: Systematic and Macro Investors - Systematic macro investors have increased their buying scale, reaching $51 billion last week, with expectations to hit $57 billion this week, although the rapid fluctuations may slow down the inflow of funds [8] - Macro investors are reducing their stock exposure despite recent market gains, indicating a divergence between stock market performance and investor sentiment [6][8]