Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single - supply source, and the trend depends on Sino - US trade relations and supply - side variables [3]. - The palm oil market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy, low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations and high near - term production [10]. - The sugar market is likely to see a price decline in the future, considering increased import supply, high import profit, and expected increase in domestic planting area [12]. - The cotton market is bearish in the short - term, as the Sino - US economic and trade agreement is not finalized, downstream consumption is weak, and the basis is strengthening [15]. - The egg market has a large supply, and the spot price in the peak season is underperforming. The near - month contract may see short - selling, while the mid - term strategy is to short after a rebound [19]. - The pig market's supply - surplus logic is being restructured due to policy intervention. There are different trading opportunities in the near - term and far - term contracts, and more attention should be paid to the spread [22]. 3. Summary by Categories Soybean/Meadow - **Important Information**: US soybean prices fell slightly on Tuesday night. Sino - US trade negotiations did not benefit US soybean exports, and good weather in North America also put pressure on prices. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose slightly, and the transaction volume increased. Last week, 2.2539 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and this week, 2.213 million tons are expected [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and it is recommended to go long at low cost intervals and pay attention to the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data shows a decline in June, while production increased in July. The government plans to increase the palm oil replanting project budget from 2026 to 2030 [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fats and oils market is supported by fundamentals but has limited upside. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter, but it should be viewed as oscillating [10]. Sugar - **Important Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly oscillating on Tuesday. Spot prices in different regions were stable. As of the end of July, sugar sales and inventory data in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The sugar price is likely to decline in the future due to increased import supply and expected increase in planting area [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly oscillating on Tuesday. The US cotton growth data showed good conditions [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market is bearish in the short - term due to the unfinalized Sino - US agreement and weak downstream consumption [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Domestic egg prices mainly declined, with sufficient supply and weak demand [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg market has a large supply. Near - month contracts may see short - selling, and mid - term short - selling after a rebound is recommended [19]. Pigs - **Important Information**: Domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with sufficient supply and weak demand [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The pig market's supply - surplus logic is being restructured. Different trading opportunities exist in near - term and far - term contracts, and more attention should be paid to the spread [22].

2025年08月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，低位布多为主 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡，关注中美贸易协议 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆冲高回落，连粕跟随回落 | 4 | | 豆一：跟随豆类，回落震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：弱势运行 | 6 | | 白糖：印度恢复性增产 | 7 | | 棉花：注意外部市场影响 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货看涨预期落空 | 9 | | 生猪：近端现货压力略超预期 | 10 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，低位布多为主 豆油：高位震荡，关注中美贸易协议 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,064 | 涨跌幅 2.56% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,996 | 涨跌幅 -0.75% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...