Core Viewpoint - The October housing price data for 70 cities indicates a significant decline across both new and second-hand housing markets, reflecting a cooling market sentiment. New Housing Market - In first-tier cities, new housing prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month, with the decline accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Second-tier cities experienced a 0.4% month-on-month decrease, also showing an increased decline of 0.1 percentage points from last month [1] - Third-tier cities saw a consistent decline of 0.4% month-on-month [1] - Even high-end improvement projects, which were previously expected to support prices, are now unable to withstand market pressures, indicating a shift in overall market expectations [4] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market is experiencing even steeper declines, with first-tier cities seeing a 1% month-on-month drop, maintaining the same decline as the previous month [5] - Second and third-tier cities recorded month-on-month decreases of 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively, with declines continuing to widen [5] - First-tier cities have entered a phase of "accelerated correction" since June, moving quickly towards their true market value, which significantly impacts overall market confidence [5] Market Heat - Nationwide, only 5 cities reported month-on-month increases in new housing prices in October, a stark contrast to 24 cities in March during a brief market upturn [7] - In the second-hand market, all 70 cities reported declines in October, compared to 10 cities experiencing price increases in March [7] - This dramatic shift illustrates the increasing market pressure in the second half of the year compared to the first half [7] Underlying Reasons and Future Outlook - The effects of earlier housing market easing policies have diminished, leading to market "antibody" development [8] - Anticipated stronger stimulus policies have not materialized, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remaining unchanged [8] - The current price adjustments may be a deliberate strategy by higher authorities to allow housing to return to its residential purpose, eliminating past bubbles [11] - The market requires supportive policies to boost confidence, but there are no signs of such measures being implemented yet [11]

Core Insights - The overall real estate market returned to a low point in Q3 2025, with both new home supply and demand declining year-on-year and month-on-month. New home supply decreased by approximately 20% in Q3, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 18% [1][2]. - New home transactions showed a steady decline, entering a period of weakness after the mid-year surge, despite favorable policies introduced in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen since August [1][9]. - The forecast for Q4 suggests a potential stabilization in new home transactions, with an expected year-on-year decline of around 10% for the entire year [1][28]. Supply Analysis - In Q3 2025, the supply of new homes in major cities saw a seasonal decline, with a year-on-year drop of 21% in July and August, and a cumulative decline of about 20% for the first three quarters [2][5]. - The supply in first-tier cities showed relative resilience, with a total supply area of 529 million square meters in Q3, a month-on-month decline of 15% but a year-on-year decline of only 3% [7]. - Second and third-tier cities continued to face pressure, with some cities like Chengdu and Tianjin showing signs of stabilization, while others like Wuhan and Nanjing experienced significant declines [7][15]. Transaction Insights - New home transaction volumes reached a near five-year low, with a total transaction area of 2,867 million square meters in Q3, reflecting an 18% year-on-year decline [9][12]. - The first-tier cities maintained a slight positive growth of 4% year-on-year in cumulative transactions, while second-tier cities saw a decline of around 10% [12][14]. - The second-hand housing market showed a relative stability with a cumulative transaction area of 5,225 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2% [17][20]. Price Trends - In August 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities continued to decline month-on-month but showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, indicating a trend of marginal improvement [22][23]. - The price index for new homes in first-tier cities decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with Shanghai experiencing a 5.9% increase, while other cities like Beijing and Guangzhou saw declines [22][27]. - The overall price trends suggest that while first-tier cities maintain higher price points, second and third-tier cities are experiencing a steady price correction due to previous oversupply [27][28]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to see a weak recovery in Q4 2025, driven by favorable policies and increased marketing efforts from real estate companies, although the overall transaction volume is likely to remain below previous highs [1][28]. - The differentiation between cities and projects will continue to intensify, with core urban areas likely to maintain higher demand while peripheral projects may struggle [29]. - The second-hand housing market is anticipated to attract more first-time buyers due to price advantages, further impacting the dynamics between new and second-hand homes [29].

8月以来已有多地出台新一轮楼市优化政策。 临近楼市传统的"金九银十"，各地再一次祭出楼市优化政策。 8月25日，上海接棒北京楼市新政，出台了涉及限购、公积金、信贷、税收等多项新政，整体导向与北 京类似，即"核心区严控、郊区松绑"，挖掘住房购买力、降低置业门槛，为势头有所减弱的市场注入一 针"强心剂"。 在当前楼市节点，一线城市带头松绑楼市调控，有切实的行业必要性。今年二季度开始，全国楼市出现 新情况，新盘去化率下滑，即便是京沪内部分化也很明显，郊区库存压力较高。对此业内人士称，"再 保持强压政策意义不大"。 而京沪步调一致的新政将有何效果？专家表示，在"金九银十"关键节点到来前，一线城市发布利好政 策，有利于楼市止跌回稳巩固成效。 一线城市"放房票" 作为全国楼市的"高地"，北京、上海调控政策松动备受关注。 半月前，楼市调控一向最严格的北京，打响了新一轮政策"第一枪"。以五环为分界线，京籍居民家庭、 连续缴纳社保或个人所得税满2年及以上的非京籍居民家庭，购买五环外商品住房，将不再限套数。成 年单身人士和居民家庭执行同样的限购政策。 这一重磅政策，成为近年来北京优化调控之路上，松绑力度最大的一次。 除了与北京步 ...