以下文章来源于莱言维语 ，作者莱言维语 莱言维语 . 不定期分享对于投资的一些碎碎念 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：莱言维语 来源：雪球 大多数人初入市场时 ， 都默认一个前提 ： 交易=预测 。 买股票前 ， 要有理由 ， 比如公司基本面好 、 国家政策利好 、 行业热点正热 ， 或者干脆我觉得要涨 。 预测准确率 ， 仿佛是交易者能力的直接体现 。 那么下面用一个经典的抛硬币游戏来打比方 ， 想象你和Nick玩游戏 ： 硬币正面 ， 你赢100元 ； 背面 ， 你亏50元 。 正反概率各50% ， 你 会参加吗 ？ 近期与朋友Nick进行了一期访谈栏目 ，文章不打算复述全部内容，只从我个人感兴趣的角度切入， 本文会从两个命题展开 ： 第一 ， 不预测 ， 真的能做好交易吗 ？ 第二 ， 分散投资到底是一种保守策略 ， 还是一种结构性的红利 ？ 我们一块一块来拆 。 01 不预测 ， 能否做好交易 ？ 一开场就抛出一个极具挑战性的问题 。 如果你彻底放弃预测 ， 你还能不能把交易做好 ？ 答案显然是肯定的 。 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：羽界之家 来源：雪球 前两天，我经历了一件并不愉快、但让我思考了很久的事情。朋友突然找我，说能不能"帮帮他"。 他说他之前在茅台上割了三次，现在又买了紫金矿业被套牢，内心非常痛苦，完全无法原谅自己。他反复追问我，能不能跟着我投资。 我跟他说， 短期被套是投资里的常态 ，没有人能做到买入就涨、卖出就跌。我也跟他说，我写过很多文章，你如果能看懂、学会，其实就是在"跟 着我投资"。 但他接着说了一句话，让我非常无语，也让我警惕： "有些文章我看不懂。" 他并不是在问问题，而是在反复痛恨自己的投资失误，情绪已经完全失控，甚至说出了一些让我必须立刻拉开边界的话。 我只能明确告诉他： 如果你在一个高频犯错、情绪主导的状态里，还不断放大仓位、放大期待，那结果往往不是"学会了投资"，而是被市场反复惩罚。 二、合格的投资者，永远把风险放在第一位 我很同情他的处境，但 我帮不了他 。不是因为标的，而是因为 他的投资心态本身，就不是任何人能"带"的状态 。 而且，说得直白一点——我们只是萍水相逢，对陌生 ...

Group 1 - The securities market is viewed as a probability game with a win-loss distribution of approximately seven losses, two draws, and one win, which raises questions about why many are drawn to it despite low winning odds [1] - The disparity in winning probabilities leads to significant potential returns, influencing participants' beliefs and behaviors in the market [1] - The article discusses two schools of thought regarding probability: frequentism, which views probability as an objective and unchanging reality, and Bayesianism, which sees it as a subjective belief that can be adjusted based on new evidence [1][2] Group 2 - Frequentism is characterized as a conservative approach that emphasizes safety margins, utilizing extensive data to extract objective rules and minimize risk, while Bayesianism is more intuitive and flexible, updating conclusions based on prior knowledge and current evidence [2] - The article suggests that no participant in the stock market is purely a frequentist or Bayesian; rather, individuals blend both approaches, adjusting their strategies based on varying frequencies of data and personal beliefs [2] - The integration of both frequentist and Bayesian thinking is essential for navigating the complexities of the market, allowing for the recognition of patterns while remaining adaptable to uncertainties [2][3] Group 3 - The analogy of chess is used to illustrate the combination of frequentism and Bayesianism, exemplified by AlphaGo's success in defeating top human players through a blend of data analysis and real-time strategy adjustments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The investment essence of the innovative drug industry is a "high risk, high return" technology game, with value realization highly concentrated in the window of "emergence of potential blockbuster drugs → successful commercialization during patent period" [2] Group 1: Nature of Innovative Drug Investment - Innovative drug investment combines "stage-based value investment" and "probability game" due to the industry's unique characteristics [3] - The overall R&D return rate in the industry is close to zero, with a 90% failure rate in clinical stages, leading to a valuation paradox [3] - The value of companies is highly dependent on single blockbuster drugs, and without replacement products post-patent cliff, valuations can collapse [3] Group 2: Redefining Value Investment - Traditional value investment standards are difficult to apply to pure innovative drug companies due to low R&D returns and high failure rates [4] - Value creation in innovative drug companies is concentrated in the window of "potential blockbuster validation → approval → successful commercialization" [4] - The core of evaluating a drug company is the discounted cash flow of existing products and future pipelines, with blockbuster potential being a key variable [4] Group 3: Probability Game - Drug development is a high-risk process, with early pipeline value being low but exponential increases in value upon successful key clinical trials [6] - Excellent platforms and management can significantly improve success probabilities and efficiencies, although they do not guarantee success [6] - The role of platforms includes improving success rates, increasing the number of attempts, and maximizing the value of successful projects [6] Group 4: Investment Decision Framework - Investment decisions should revolve around the value verification and release cycle of potential blockbuster drugs [8] - Early-stage investments focus on companies with disruptive technology platforms or unique scientific insights, with high risk but potentially huge returns [9] - Key value inflection points occur when core pipelines enter critical clinical stages, significantly increasing success probabilities [11] Group 5: Timing and Exit Strategies - Timing is crucial; knowing when to invest is often more important than which company to invest in [19] - Investors should exit when core value drivers are disproven, growth expectations peak, or when nearing patent cliffs [17] - Continuous tracking of pipeline progress, competitive landscape, clinical data, regulatory dynamics, and sales performance is essential [19] Group 6: Final Conclusion - Innovative drug investment focuses on identifying and investing in companies experiencing non-linear value growth driven by breakthrough drugs [20] - Successful investment requires scientific insight, business judgment, probability thinking, and strict timing discipline [20]