上次聊了《 关于如何提高突破交易的成功率 》这个话题，有关追涨好还是低吸好，其实早以前也有类似的文章：《 当天干还是等回调 》《 回撤买入的 正确思路，陶博士蓝钻买点又被形态拟合 》《 如何把握回撤之后的买点 》 ■ 分时 1分钟 5分钟 15分钟 30分钟 60分钟 日线 周线 月线 10分钟 45日线 零线 年线 5秒 15秒 多周期 更多 > 短収 叠加 标记 -自选 返回 仕佳光子 688313 KR 仕佳光子(日线,等比前复仪,时数) ● M6(10,20,50,150,200,13) VWA50.29.1 VWA150. 22.8 VWA200. 21.9 HOLD: 32.8 : 21.9 PWOLINE: - RSUNE: 45. -0.09 -0.25% 35.88 英 泰石 35.9 35.93 35.90 35.89 35.87 35.86 35.85 35.8 35.82 北京 43.16 涨停 - 20.51 37.57 35.82 最高 反低 15.74 - 18.72 现最 120321 外盘 4.99% 财群 2.82 0.210 @ VOL 金(5,25) VVOL: 166 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that achieving a high success rate in trading is not solely dependent on technical methods, but rather on personal understanding and expectations of success, particularly in the context of breakthrough trading strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Breakthrough Trading Insights - Historical data shows that most breakthrough mechanical trading systems have a success rate below 50%, with many under 43%, indicating the inherent challenges of this trading approach [1]. - Achieving a success rate above 50% is rare, with even renowned traders like Mark Minervini only reaching 55%, suggesting that traders must be mentally prepared for the difficulties of breakthrough trading [1]. - The article suggests that if a trader desires a higher success rate, they should consider abandoning breakthrough trading strategies in favor of low-buy models, which historically yield higher success rates [1]. Group 2: Risk Management and Control - Alexander Elder's perspective highlights that after a stock price breaks a resistance level, the key differentiator for successful traders is their risk control and management, rather than the trading strategy itself [2]. - The article stresses that breakthrough trading focuses on the expected risk-reward ratio rather than the success rate, and emphasizes the importance of minimizing mistakes through disciplined trading practices [2]. Group 3: Key Trading Strategies - The article outlines several key strategies for successful breakthrough trading: - First, identifying the main trend and leading stocks is crucial, as only a small portion of industries and leading stocks have a high probability of successful breakthroughs [2]. - Second, traders should observe and accumulate favorable stocks for breakthrough trading, waiting for the optimal trading moment while adhering to strict discipline [2]. - Third, traders should avoid being swayed by market emotions and popular sayings, ensuring that the tools used for trading are validated and backtested [3]. - Lastly, it is advised to act on significant volume breakout points early in the base reversal phase, as the risk increases with delayed actions [3].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) shows a stable upward trend, with the stock price reaching 401.2 HKD, reflecting a 1.42% increase, and technical indicators suggest a potential for further gains despite being in the overbought zone [1][9]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has broken through all major moving averages, with the 10-day moving average at 393.4 HKD and the 30-day moving average at 372.1 HKD indicating a bullish alignment [1]. - The MACD indicator remains in a golden cross state, suggesting a strengthening mid-term trend [1]. - The RSI has reached 70, indicating an overbought condition, and the upper Bollinger Band is at 406 HKD, which coincides with current resistance levels, suggesting a possible short-term technical adjustment [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 384 HKD and a stronger support at 360 HKD, while resistance is seen at 406 HKD, with a potential challenge at 418 HKD if broken [1]. Derivative Products Performance - Recent trading data from June 2 to June 4 shows that while HKEX's stock rose by 0.66%, related derivative products exhibited varying degrees of leverage effects, particularly bull certificates [3]. - HSBC bull certificate 53712 increased by 11% over two days, while Societe Generale bull certificate 54739 rose by 10%, highlighting the advantages of bull certificates in a moderate upward market [3][4]. - Call options such as Barclays call option 27807 and HSBC call option 29547 recorded an 8% increase, demonstrating significant leverage effects [4]. Investment Strategies - For bullish investors, HSBC call option 29547 offers a leverage of 8.9 times with a strike price of 450.2 HKD, while Barclays call option 27807 provides a leverage of 9 times with a strike price of 450 HKD, both suitable for medium-term holding [6]. - For bearish investors, HSBC put option 16951 offers a leverage of 9.4 times with a strike price of 333.68 HKD, and UBS put option 16913 provides a leverage of 9 times with the same strike price, both having the lowest premiums and implied volatilities [7]. - UBS bear certificate 52551 has a leverage of 16.2 times with a recovery price of 420 HKD, while JPMorgan bear certificate 53686 offers a leverage of 15.9 times, suitable for bearish market conditions [7].