Report Overview - Report Name: Rubber Industry Data Daily - Date: August 21, 2025 - Author: Ye Haiwen from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of ITG Futures [2][5] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The rubber market shows a volatile performance. With the cooling of the commodity market sentiment, the rubber futures盘面 has declined. The market is approaching the September delivery, returning to the fundamental logic, and the previous "anti - involution" trading expectation has cooled, resulting in a bearish commodity sentiment. Rubber may follow a weak - volatile trend. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the arbitrage strategy of going long on RU2509 and short on RU2601 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Disk - **Domestic Futures**: RU主力 dropped from 15875 to 15675 (-200), NR主力 from 12690 to 12525 (-165), and BR主力 from 11840 to 11715 (-125) [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: Tocom RSS3 decreased from 318.1 yen/kg to 313.8 yen/kg (-4.3), while Sicom TF remained unchanged at 172.4 cents/kg [3]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: RU2601 - RU2509 decreased from 995 to 955 (-40), RU2605 - RU2601 increased from 85 to 105 (+20), NR主力 - 次主力 decreased from 60 to 50 (-10), and BR主力 - 次主力 remained at 10 [3]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: RU - NR decreased from 3185 to 3150 (-35), RU - BR from 4035 to 3960 (-75), and NR - BR from 850 to 810 (-40) [3]. - **Inter - market Spreads**: RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) increased from 56 to 58 (+2), and NR - Sicom TF ($) decreased from 43 to 21 (-22) [3]. 2. Raw Material Prices - **Thailand (THB/kg)**: The price of smoked sheet rubber decreased from 60.85 to 59.60 (-1.25), the price of latex remained at 54.70, and the price of cup lump decreased from 49.80 to 49.35 (-0.45) [3]. - **Hainan and Yunnan (CNY/ton)**: Hainan latex for concentrated latex increased from 14000 to 14400 (+400), Hainan latex for whole - milk remained at 13400, Yunnan latex for concentrated latex remained at 14500, and Yunnan rubber block for whole - milk decreased from 14200 to 14100 (-100) [3]. 3. Factory Costs and Profits - **Whole - milk Rubber Delivery Profits**: Hainan remained at 479, Yunnan remained at - 301, and Thailand decreased from 955 to 875 (-81) [3]. - **Concentrated Latex Production Profits**: Hainan decreased from 1000 to 640 (-360), Thailand smoked sheet rubber remained at 2779 [3]. - **Smoked Sheet and 20 - grade Rubber Gross Margins**: Thailand 20 - grade rubber remained at - 189, and domestic 9710 remained at 250 [3]. 4. Domestic Spot - **Light - colored Rubber**: Old whole - milk decreased from 14900 to 14750 (-150), Vietnam 3L from 14900 to 14850 (-50), Thai mixed from 14650 to 14530 (-120), and Malaysian mixed from 14600 to 14480 (-120) [3]. - **Dark - colored Rubber**: Thai standard decreased from 12916 to 12813 (-103), and domestic standard II from 13900 to 13850 (-50) [3]. - **Other Types**: Domestic 9710 decreased from 14250 to 14150 (-100), Shanghai: Huangchunfa bulk from 11750 to 11600 (-150), Shanghai: Hainan bulk from 11300 to 11200 (-100), synthetic rubber (cis - J BR9000) from 11750 to 11600 (-150), styrene - butadiene SBR1502 from 12350 to 12150 (-200), and styrene - butadiene SBR1712 from 11350 to 11200 (-150) [3]. 5. Overseas Spot - **Mixed Rubber**: Thai mixed CIF decreased from 1810 to 1795 (-15), Malaysian mixed CIF from 1800 to 1785 (-15) [3]. - **Standard Rubber**: Thai standard CIF decreased from 1810 to 1795 (-15), Malaysian standard CIF from 1800 to 1785 (-15), and Indian standard CIF from 1735 to 1720 (-15) [3]. 6. Futures - Spot Spreads - **RU Spreads**: RU - Thai mixed decreased from 230 to 190 (-40), RU - old whole - milk from - 20 to - 30 (-10), and RU - Vietnam 3L from - 20 to - 130 (-110) [3]. - **NR Spreads**: NR - Thai standard delivery profit decreased from - 451 to - 511 (-60), NR - Indian standard delivery profit from 88 to 64 (-24), and NR - Malaysian standard delivery profit from - 379 to - 439 (-60) [3]. 7. Spot Spreads - **Variety Spreads**: Thai standard - Thai mixed ($) decreased from 10 to 5 (-5), Vietnam 3L - Thai mixed increased from 250 to 320 (+70), domestic standard II - Thai mixed increased from - 750 to - 680 (+70), old whole - milk - Vietnam 3L decreased from 0 to - 100 (-100), and domestic 9710 - Thai mixed increased from - 400 to - 380 (+20) [3]. 8. Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index remained at 98.2790, the US dollar/Chinese yuan increased from 7.1359 to 7.1384 (+0.002), the US dollar/Japanese yen remained at 147.6755, and the US dollar/Thai baht remained at 32.5550 [3]. - **Interest Rates**: SHIBOR - overnight increased from 1.464 to 1.473 (+0.009), and SHIBOR - seven - day from 1.517 to 1.534 (+0.017) [3]. 9. Supply, Inventory, and Demand - **Supply**: In Thailand, the price of raw material latex is 54.7 THB/kg, and the price of cup lump is 49.35 THB/kg. In Yunnan, the price of latex for whole - milk is 14100 CNY/ton, and for concentrated latex is 14500 CNY/ton. In Hainan, the price of latex for whole - milk is 13400 CNY/ton, and for concentrated latex is 14400 CNY/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 17, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.75 million tons (0.6%). The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 80.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%, and the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 47.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points [3].