橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-05 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | | | 1. 2025年12月3日-12月9日期间，天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期小幅增加，赤道以北高降水区域主要集中在 越南北部、泰国南部等地区，其余大部分区域降水处于偏低状态，对割胶工作影响增强；赤道以南高降水区域主要分 布在印尼中西部、马来西部等地区，其他大部分区域降雨量处于中等状态，对割胶工作影响增强。 本周天然橡胶维持震荡偏弱态势，交易重心有小幅下移，合成橡胶周二受原料端影响，出现明显上涨，但之后随着需求端 提振有限，跟随整体橡胶板块走弱。从天然橡胶基本面看，国内外的天然橡胶原料市场呈现分化走势，海外主产区随着洪 水消退，割胶与生产活动恢复，原料供应增加导致价格出现回落，海外端成本支撑偏弱；而国内产区目前逐步进入停割期， 市场供应收紧，原料价格因此表现坚挺，国内端橡胶成本端仍存支撑。但下游需求有限，仍未改变天然橡胶总库存缓慢累 积的趋势。从合成橡胶基本面看，原料丁二烯受部分货源出口成交带动，市场在周中一度迎 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, while the rating for BR is also neutral [11] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of rubber is strongly supported as domestic and foreign natural rubber raw material prices remain at a year-on-year high. With the gradual increase in recent arrivals in China and no obvious highlights in demand, there is expected to be some inventory accumulation space in the later period. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later period, which will be conducive to the further expansion of the price difference between RU and NR. The supply of BR is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term due to maintenance support, and it mainly follows the price fluctuations of upstream butadiene raw materials. The upstream butadiene is still in a weak situation, and the inventory accumulation pattern may continue [11] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,295 yuan/ton, a change of -20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,345 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,505 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan-produced full latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Indonesian 20 standard rubber was 1,740 US dollars/ton, a change of -5 US dollars/ton. The ex-factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,400 yuan/ton, with no change [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports from January to October 2025 reached 8.03 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 5.8664 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [2] - The ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a decrease of 1% from the previous month; the consumption of natural rubber was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - According to data released by China's General Administration of Customs on November 7, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in October 2025 totaled 667,000 tons, an increase of 1.2% compared with 659,000 tons in the same period in 2024 [2] - From January to September 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export of natural rubber to China was 759,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19%; the total export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 330%; the total export of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 70% [3] - On November 10, the latest market data released by the Passenger Car Association showed that the retail sales of the national passenger car market in October reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, ending the previous two consecutive months of "double growth" trend. However, from the cumulative performance of the whole year, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars from January to October were 19.25 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, still maintaining a relatively stable growth rhythm [3] - According to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the sales volume of the EU passenger car market in September 2025 increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 18, 2025, the RU basis was -445 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 695 yuan/ton (+30), and the NR basis was 763.00 yuan/ton (+17.00); the full latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (+0), the mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (-50), and the 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between the full latex and the 3L was -350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between the mixed rubber and the styrene-butadiene rubber was 3,800 yuan/ton (-150) [4][5] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.55 Thai baht/kg (+0.22), the price of Thai glue was 56.70 Thai baht/kg (+0.10), the price of Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [6] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all-steel tires was 64.29% (-1.08%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 72.99% (+0.10%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 452,589 tons (+3,134), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,357 tons (+345), the RU futures inventory was 108,470 tons (-10,500), and the NR futures inventory was 49,695 tons (+1,109) [7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 18, 2025, the BR basis was -155 yuan/ton (-50), the ex-factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,000 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,400 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,050 yuan/ton (+50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was -1,556 yuan/ton (+433) [8] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high-cis butadiene rubber was 69.92% (+3.91%) [9] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,970 tons (+1,450), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,850 tons (+80) [10] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. Due to the strong cost support and the expected increase in supply later, the supply-demand drive is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread between RU01 and 05. For BR, also maintain a neutral stance. The supply is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and it mainly follows the price fluctuations of upstream butadiene raw materials [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [5][6] Core Viewpoints - This week, Thai raw materials stabilized with a slight rebound, and domestic raw material prices remained strong, leading to a recovery in the cost - side support for rubber. However, as rainfall decreases in major production areas at home and abroad, raw material supply will increase again. With the peak - season supply, raw material prices are expected to decline later. The supply pressure of full - latex corresponding to RU is currently not significant due to the higher production profit of concentrated latex. But as the production profit of domestic concentrated latex continues to improve and Thai raw material supply increases, domestic latex imports are expected to rise, which is also beneficial for the recovery of full - latex. The expected arrival volume in August is still low, and the inventory accumulation at ports will be limited. However, the continuous entry of alternative indicators in Yunnan recently has supplemented the dark - colored rubber, and it is expected that the dark - colored rubber will continue to accumulate inventory. Without obvious purchasing intentions from downstream factories, it is difficult for natural rubber prices to rise. For BR, the supply may decrease due to the expected short - term maintenance of some devices and the restart of others. Some tire factories have maintenance plans, and the finished - product inventory of tire factories has slightly decreased, but factory orders have not improved. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and the downward space of BR mainly follows upstream butadiene. Recently, domestic butadiene devices have restarted, supply may increase, demand has no bright spots, and butadiene continues to be weak [5][6] Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,545 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,300 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,320 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton; the price of Thai grade 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,770 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian grade 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,715 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Import and Production Data - In June 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - classified, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47%. The ANRPC's June 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in June would decrease by 1.5% to 119,100 tons, a 14.5% increase from the previous month; consumption would increase by 0.7% to 127,100 tons, a 0.1% increase from the previous month. In the first half of the year, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.1% to 607,600 tons, while the cumulative consumption increased by 1% to 771,500 tons. QinRex data showed that in the first half of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 138,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 80,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%; the export of smoked sheets was 19,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%; the export of latex was 37,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. Thailand's exports of natural rubber to China in the first half of the year totaled 55,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China was 35,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%; the export of smoked sheets to China was 5,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 307%; the export of latex to China was 14,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 77% [2] Vehicle and Tire Market Data - In June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. On July 28, the European Tyre and Rubber Manufacturers Association (ETRMA) released market data showing that in the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57.044 million pieces [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spread - On August 5, 2025, the RU basis was - 45 yuan/ton (- 30), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 225 yuan/ton (- 40), the import profit of smoked sheets was - 4,366 yuan/ton (+ 0.74), the NR basis was 332 yuan/ton (- 2); the price of full - latex was 14,500 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,320 yuan/ton (+ 220), the price of 3L spot was 14,650 yuan/ton (+ 150); the STR20 was quoted at 1,770 US dollars/ton (+ 20), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,420 yuan/ton (+ 220) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheets was 59.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.83), the price of Thai rubber latex was 54.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0), the price of Thai cup lump was 47.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.30), and the spread between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 6.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.30) [4] Operating Rate - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.26% (- 2.97%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.98% (- 0.08%) [4] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,702 tons (+ 4,602), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 631,770 tons (- 8,614), the RU futures inventory was 177,630 tons (- 4,390), and the NR futures inventory was 39,716 tons (+ 2,318) [4][5] Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber (BR) Spot and Spread - On August 5, 2025, the BR basis was - 65 yuan/ton (+ 30), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,200 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of private - owned cis - polybutadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,350 yuan/ton (+ 100), and the import profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,250 yuan/ton (+ 272) [5] Operating Rate - The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 72.46% (+ 4.73%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,520 tons (+ 50), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,800 tons (- 1,050) [5]

Report Summary - The rubber market rebounded this week due to improved macro - sentiment, but the rebound was limited by fundamental pressures. The raw material cost support weakened, and the downstream tire demand was expected to be weak. The price was supported below by short - term macro - sentiment improvement, and future focus should be on weather and tire demand changes [6]. Market Focus Positive Factors - In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.93 million, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.802 million, a year - on - year increase of 9%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 2.329 million, a year - on - year increase of 14% and a month - on - month increase of 6%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 10.797 million, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The auto consumption index in May 2025 was 81.6, slightly higher than the previous month, and the market in June was expected to be basically flat or slightly increase compared with May [7]. - The weekly rainfall in the world's main natural rubber producing areas decreased, and the rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas in the next two weeks would also decrease, reducing the impact on rubber tapping [7]. - The call between Chinese and US leaders improved the macro - atmosphere [7][10]. - The probability that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June was 97.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 2.5%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 67.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 32.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 0.8% [7]. Negative Factors - The price of natural rubber raw materials weakened [7]. - The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly [7]. - The price of butadiene, the raw material of butadiene rubber, was weakly stable [7]. - Butadiene rubber traders reduced their inventory slightly, while factories showed a trend of inventory accumulation [7]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of tires declined [7]. Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The call between Chinese and US leaders improved the macro - atmosphere [10]. Bearish Factors - The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises was weak [10]. - The expectation of rubber tapping recovery weakened the support of natural rubber raw materials [10]. Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Price - As of June 5, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, the cup - lump price was 44.7 Thai baht/kg, and the glue price in Yunnan, China was 12,700 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials at home and abroad decreased compared with the previous week, and the cost support of rubber weakened [12]. Qingdao Inventory - As of the week of May 30, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 86,887 tons, a decrease of 3,607 tons, and the general trade spot inventory was 522,778 tons, a decrease of 1,312 tons. The downstream restocked before the Dragon Boat Festival, driving a slight reduction in inventory [13]. Butadiene Price - This week, the domestic butadiene market fell slightly and then stabilized. The demand side dragged down the market, but some device overhauls and limited imports supported the market. As of June 5, the delivered price in the central Shandong region was about 9,400 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank price in the main ports of East China was about 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 934.2857 yuan/ton, and the price decline increased the loss of production enterprises [15]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of the week of June 6, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 5,800 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from the previous week. The downstream restocking enthusiasm was not high [17]. Tire Capacity Utilization - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 55.65%, a decrease of 5.15% from the previous week, and the available inventory days in Shandong factories were 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 64.05%, a decrease of 8.46% from the previous week, and the available inventory days in Shandong factories were 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days. Affected by the Dragon Boat Festival, the capacity utilization rate decreased. The replacement demand for all - steel tires may increase with rising temperatures, but the space was limited due to low freight prices. The inventory structure of all - steel tire enterprises improved compared with last year, while the inventory reduction of semi - steel tire enterprises was still difficult [19]. Contract Spread - As of June 5, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract showed a convergence trend, and the spread of the "NR - BR" September contract fluctuated within a range [21]. Market Outlook - The future tire demand is expected to be weak, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is difficult to reach the high level of the same period last year. The cost support of raw materials has weakened, but the macro - sentiment has been improved by the call between Chinese and US leaders. Overall, the downstream demand is weaker than last year, limiting the upside of prices. The raw material support has weakened in the short term, but the prices are supported below by short - term macro - sentiment improvement. Future focus should be on weather and tire demand changes [25].