高硫稳定弱势，低硫供应预期波动 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 低硫关注各地炼厂装置变化对供应的扰动影响。Dangote炼厂汽油装置检修计划再次变动，检修时间延后同时检修时长缩短，近端低 硫供应增量少于预期。Al-Zour炼厂装置延迟回归继续给低硫市场以一定支撑。南苏丹消息，已恢复油田正常运营及原油正常出口， 低硫供应缺口扰动消退。低硫重质原料Dar Blend在8月苏丹与阿联酋矛盾后几乎全部流往泛新加坡地区。泛新加坡地区低硫供应减少 不如预期，马来西亚RFCC装置回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of PetroNeft's liquidation marks the end of an era for the Russian oil industry, highlighting the significant impact of Western energy companies' withdrawal since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][3][8]. Group 1: Withdrawal of Western Energy Companies - Major Western energy companies, including BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil, have collectively exited the Russian market, resulting in losses exceeding €100 billion for European firms [3][4]. - BP's divestment of its 19.75% stake in Rosneft led to a loss of $25.5 billion, while other companies followed suit within days, abandoning projects like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline [3][4]. Group 2: Reasons for Withdrawal - The withdrawal is driven by three main pressures: severe political conditions due to sanctions, significant economic losses from asset nationalization, and a critical shortage of technology that has crippled Russian oil production [4]. - The Russian government has nationalized foreign assets, leading to ExxonMobil's $4 billion Sakhalin project being seized, and TotalEnergies' $14.8 billion investment becoming worthless overnight [4]. Group 3: Consequences for the Russian Oil Industry - The lack of essential components has led to widespread shutdowns in Russian refineries, with projections indicating a historic low in petrochemical production capacity by 2025 [4]. - Oil production has been severely impacted, with a 30% reduction in output from the Sakhalin-1 project due to the withdrawal of deep-water drilling technology [4]. Group 4: Financial Crisis in Russia - The EU's embargo has resulted in 1.5 million barrels of oil per day being unsold, with India purchasing at discounted rates but complicating repatriation of funds due to currency issues [4][6]. - The Russian central bank has raised interest rates to 20% to stabilize the ruble, which has depreciated to 114 rubles per dollar, with inflation exceeding 15% [4]. Group 5: Limited Support from Other Markets - Attempts to sell overseas assets, such as the $20 billion offer for Nayara Energy, have been met with rejection from Indian firms and caution from Saudi Aramco due to potential secondary sanctions [6]. - Domestic companies are struggling with funding shortages, and even state-owned Rosneft, with over 80% debt, is unable to provide financial support [6]. Group 6: China's Role - China has emerged as a partial lifeline, with PetroChina agreeing to purchase 500,000 barrels of oil daily, but under unfavorable terms for Russia, including a 30% discount on international prices [8]. - Russian upstream exploration projects are stalled due to technology restrictions, with Chinese firms unwilling to invest directly in oil fields [8].