高硫稳定弱势，低硫供应预期波动 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 低硫关注各地炼厂装置变化对供应的扰动影响。Dangote炼厂汽油装置检修计划再次变动，检修时间延后同时检修时长缩短，近端低 硫供应增量少于预期。Al-Zour炼厂装置延迟回归继续给低硫市场以一定支撑。南苏丹消息，已恢复油田正常运营及原油正常出口， 低硫供应缺口扰动消退。低硫重质原料Dar Blend在8月苏丹与阿联酋矛盾后几乎全部流往泛新加坡地区。泛新加坡地区低硫供应减少 不如预期，马来西亚RFCC装置回 ...

| = 2 S 5/4 V 1 | 1 | | --- | --- | | D | | | 1 | | | . 9 = . 1 15 1 | | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月03日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 API数据显示美国成品油及原油库存增加。俄罗斯里海管道联盟表示自11月中旬起进行维护的SPM-3预计将在未 来七天内恢复运行,恢复进度快于原计划。此前地缘局势升温导致油价反弹定价完成后今日有回吐部分地缘溢 价的迹象,基本面供需盈余扩大仍决定油价中枢存下行压力。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 当前燃料油市场核心驱动仍集中于供应端。高硫方面,短期因中东发货回落及地缘冲突持续获得支撑,前期焦 化利润与配额紧张亦提振其进料需求。展望后续，国内原油配额提前下发或对该需求形成分流。她缘方面，虽 俄乌谈判释放积 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current peak season for asphalt has not shown better - than - expected performance. Short - term external disturbances have increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term or look for pressure levels after the price rises to arrange short positions. The supply of asphalt remains stable, the demand is weak due to weather and other factors, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline, and the South China region is still the price depression [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.25%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 15.91% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short - sell asphalt futures (bu2512) with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 3650 - 3750. They can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a ratio of 20% at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory, to prevent rising procurement costs, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 3300 - 3400. They can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a ratio of 20% at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The news of a possible US military strike on Venezuela has led to a rise in crude oil and asphalt prices. Since Venezuelan crude oil accounts for over 20% of China's asphalt refinery feedstock, the market is worried about raw material supply disruptions. However, the accuracy of the news needs to be verified by tracking Venezuelan crude oil shipments and China's imports [3]. - The refinery's production is stable, and the overall asphalt supply has little change. The demand is weak after the National Day holiday, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure has improved, with stable and low - pressure factory inventories and a declining social inventory. The problem of raw material shortage has not been fundamentally resolved, so the asphalt cracking spread remains high. The cost of crude oil is expected to decline as OPEC continues to increase production. The price of crude oil has dropped rapidly due to the escalation of Sino - US tariffs. The South China region remains the price depression due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions [3]. 3.4利多解读 - The pressure on asphalt factory inventories is low, providing a basis for manufacturers to support prices [6]. - In Shandong, Shengxing has resumed asphalt production, while Qicheng and Fengli have switched to producing residual oil. In the East China region, some major refineries have reduced production [6]. - There is an atmosphere of anti - cut - throat competition, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a document to resist disorderly price wars [6]. - There is a possibility of an escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela [6]. 3.5利空解读 - The escalation of US tariffs on China has weakened the overall sentiment in the risk market [7]. - The recent increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil and the continued production increase by OPEC+ in November are negative factors for asphalt prices [12]. 3.6 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Price**: On October 22, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3330 yuan/ton, 3470 yuan/ton, 3330 yuan/ton, and 3400 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous day, the prices in Shandong and North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in the Yangtze River Delta and South China remained unchanged [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract decreased by 56 yuan/ton, 46 yuan/ton, 56 yuan/ton, and 46 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous day [7]. - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spread of Shandong spot to Brent decreased by 1.7329 yuan/barrel compared with the previous day, while the cracking spread of the futures main contract to Brent increased by 15.9425 yuan/barrel [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The international oil price continued to rise overnight and weakened after the opening today. The SC08 contract rose 1.36% intraday. The geopolitical concerns have eased slightly, but the supply risks related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exist. Crude oil is still judged to be oscillating strongly, and investors can continue to hold low-cost call options. The spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise [2]. - The fuel oil futures followed the crude oil to rise and then fall. The Israel-Iran conflict has boosted the geopolitical premium of high-sulfur fuel oil. The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the FU cracking is weak. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is still abundant, and the LU cracking continues to decline [3]. - Asphalt followed the oil price to rise and then fall. The increase in asphalt production is expected to be limited. The terminal demand is expected to increase, and the inventory data continues to decline. However, the BU cracking is under pressure before the upward risk of oil price caused by geopolitical risks is lifted [4]. - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is still fermenting, and the international market is running strongly. The domestic chemical demand has rebounded, but the profit margin is under pressure. If the geopolitical risks are relieved, the supply pressure will bring a strong downward drive. The fundamentals still have certain loose pressure, and the disk is oscillating strongly [5]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price continued to rise overnight and weakened after the opening today, with the SC08 contract rising 1.36% intraday [2]. - Trump postponed the decision on whether to attack Iran for two weeks, and the geopolitical concerns have eased slightly [2]. - The supply risks related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exist before the return to the negotiation table [2]. - Crude oil is still judged to be oscillating strongly, and investors can continue to hold low-cost call options [2]. - The spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise due to the direct impact of geopolitical risks on the supply of medium-sulfur crude oil and the support of tanker freight rates [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil futures followed the crude oil to rise and then fall [3]. - The Israel-Iran conflict has boosted the geopolitical premium of high-sulfur fuel oil, and the high-sulfur fuel oil has been supported since the conflict broke out [3]. - The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep processing is low, and the demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is greatly reduced due to the high cracking valuation [3]. - The FU cracking is weak under the strong crude oil, and the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is still abundant, while the demand for low-sulfur marine fuel is insufficient, and the LU cracking continues to decline [3]. Asphalt - Asphalt followed the oil price to rise and then fall [4]. - The increase in asphalt production is expected to be limited due to the consumption of crude oil quotas and the planned increase in the operation of deep processing equipment by major refineries after the maintenance peak [4]. - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has continued to increase month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers has increased significantly year-on-year from January to April, indicating that the terminal demand is expected to increase [4]. - As of June 19, the weekly inventory data of refineries and society has continued to decline. However, the BU cracking is under pressure before the upward risk of oil price caused by geopolitical risks is lifted [4]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is still fermenting, and the international market is running strongly [5]. - The domestic chemical demand has rebounded, but the profit margin is under pressure due to the increase in import costs [5]. - The arrival volume in the middle of the month and the release of refinery gas have both increased. If the geopolitical risks are relieved, the supply pressure will bring a strong downward drive [5]. - The fundamentals still have certain loose pressure, and the disk is oscillating strongly under the support of strong crude oil and political risks [5].