Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The trading focus of the current soybean meal futures lies in whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decline, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases announced by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory level remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will continue to fluctuate around the cost line. The domestic soybean meal lacks a clear single - sided driver. In the near - term, it will price in the seasonal de - stocking logic and be stronger, while the far - term will be pressured by Brazilian supply and remain weak, with the long - near positive spread logic continuing [4]. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There is an expectation of additional negotiations between China and Canada, and Australian rapeseed will arrive after November. The subsequent demand increase is limited, and supply is expected to recover. The coastal and oil - mill rapeseed meal inventories remain high, and it is generally regarded as weak. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.1%. The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 24.4% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Trade merchants with high protein inventory can short 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans can short 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on the supply - side yield adjustment and the realization of Chinese purchases in the balance sheet. The domestic market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern due to seasonal de - stocking in the near - term and Brazilian supply pressure in the far - term [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It remains in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There are additional negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and Australian rapeseed arrivals will limit demand growth and increase supply expectations. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration after November [4]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices. The external market's strength in pricing US soybean purchases and the inability of the domestic market to purchase commercial US soybeans maintain the firmness of the domestic market. The centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in the near - month eases the pressure [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in the near - term, and the seasonal decline in soybean meal inventory. The smooth planting in Brazil and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America suppress the far - month prices. The supply gap in the far - term is repaired under the background of Sino - US negotiations and purchases [6][9]. 3.4 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices, daily changes, and price change rates of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as CBOT yellow soybeans and the offshore RMB, are provided [10]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, as well as the basis and spot - futures spreads, are presented [11]. - **Import Costs and Profits**: The import costs, daily and weekly changes, and import profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, as well as the import profits of Canadian rapeseed, are given [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is that the external market of US soybeans is mainly driven by export demand under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention is paid to whether the ending inventory in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the tariff implementation, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and long-term weakness. [4] - The current focus of rapeseed meal futures trading is that the supply and demand will remain weak in the fourth quarter. After the Chinese government's decision to resume group tours to Canada on November 3rd, there is an additional expectation of negotiations. Considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal remains high, limiting the rebound space. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. [3] 2. Hedging Strategy Table - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] - For feed mills with low regular inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] 3. Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3054, down 9 (-0.29%); soybean meal 05 is 2836, up 7 (0.25%); soybean meal 09 is 2952, up 9 (0.31%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2500, down 27 (-1.07%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2421, down 7 (-0.29%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2494, down 2 (-0.08%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1127.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1232, up 0.0018 (0.03%). [7][10] 4. Price Spreads and Import Costs/Profits - The price spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, along with the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. [11] - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are presented, including daily and weekly changes. [11] 5. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors include that the Brazilian export premium supports the far-month contract prices from the cost side, the external market strengthens under the background of US soybean procurement, and the pressure on the near-month contracts is relieved during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts. [9] - Bearish factors include that the current near-month supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills remains high, Brazilian planting is progressing smoothly with a high-yield expectation in South America, and the far-month supply gap is filled under the background of China-US negotiations. [9]