Group 1 - The supply of live pigs remains relatively loose, and due to policy guidance from the National Development and Reform Commission, large pig enterprises are reducing the weight of their marketings, which increases short-term supply pressure and leads to a significant decline in pork prices during the month [1][2] - The industry is experiencing expanded losses, with the number of breeding sows in the country entering a de-stocking phase since July, and the de-stocking trend accelerating in October, which may further elevate the price center for pigs in 2026 [1][2] - The cash flow of "low-cost+" pig enterprises is expected to improve significantly, continuously enhancing their intrinsic value [1][2] Group 2 - In October 2025, the total number of live pigs marketed by 15 listed pig enterprises reached 17.52 million heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 23%, primarily due to the release of capacity by leading pig enterprises [3] - The average marketing weight of pigs from nine listed enterprises decreased to 121 kg, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.9% and a month-on-month decline of 1.5% [3] - The number of piglets marketed in October 2025 was 1.44 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 144%, with the proportion of piglets in total marketings rising by 0.4 percentage points to 20% [3]

招商证券主要观点如下： 出栏同环比明显增长，出栏体重环比回落。从出栏量上看，2025年10月，15家上市猪企合计出栏生猪 1752万头，同比+30%、环比+23%，主要系龙头猪企产能释放所致，整体仍处产能释放期。15家上市猪 企出栏量同比均实现正增长，其中新五丰、正邦科技、中粮家佳康、巨星农牧、神农集团、傲农生物、 金新农出栏量同比增幅均超50%，分别为57%、67%、82%、68%、65%、73%、67%。从出栏结构上 看，2025年10月，上市猪企合计出栏仔猪144万头，同比+144%，占生猪出栏比重提升0.4个百分点至 20%。从出栏体重上看，2025年10月，主要上市猪企出栏体重继续回落，9家上市猪企出栏均重121kg， 同比-1.9%、环比-1.5%。 风险提示：农产品价格波动超预期，突发大规模不可控疾病，重大食品安全事件，上市公司销量/成本 不达预期。 生猪供给端仍较为宽松，同时受产能调控影响，集团猪企降重出栏，增加短期供给压力，拖累猪价月内 明显下行，带动行业亏损扩大，10月全国能繁母猪产能环比去化幅度扩大至1.1%。上市猪企产能仍处 释放期，10月出栏量同环比明显增长。反内卷&行业亏损双管齐下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for several companies, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [2][53]. Core Insights - The swine industry is experiencing a significant decline in pig prices due to an oversupply and seasonal demand weakness, leading to increased losses in the sector [6][10]. - The production capacity of breeding sows is rapidly decreasing, with a notable reduction of 1.1% in October, indicating a shift towards a more balanced supply-demand dynamic in the future [10][14]. - The report highlights a substantial increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, with a 30% year-on-year growth in October, driven by the release of production capacity from leading companies [10][33]. - The report suggests that the cash flow for low-cost pig farming companies is expected to improve significantly, enhancing their intrinsic value [10][53]. Summary by Sections Industry Losses and Production Capacity - The report notes that pig prices have declined significantly, with the national average price at 11.6 yuan/kg in October, down 34% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month [10][14]. - The losses in pig farming have expanded, with self-breeding and purchased piglets showing average losses of 155 yuan and 281 yuan per head, respectively [10][14]. - The production capacity of breeding sows is in a rapid decline, with the number of breeding sows falling below 40 million for the first time since June 2024 [10][14]. Slaughter and Weight Trends - The report indicates a significant increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, with 17.52 million pigs processed in October, reflecting a 30% increase year-on-year [10][33]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased, with the average weight recorded at 121 kg, down 1.9% year-on-year and 1.5% month-on-month [10][49]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with strong cost advantages and performance reliability, recommending Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group as key investment targets [10][53]. - Other companies to watch include Shennong Group, Dekang Animal Husbandry, Dongrui Co., and COFCO Joycome, which are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [10][53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for several companies in the pig farming industry, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [2]. Core Insights - The pig price is experiencing a downward trend due to seasonal demand weakness and government policies aimed at reducing sow production capacity, which may support prices as consumption enters a peak season [1][6]. - The report highlights that the industry is in a capacity release phase, with significant increases in the number of pigs being marketed, while the sales of piglets are seasonally declining [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost advantages and strong performance capabilities of leading companies, recommending specific firms for investment [1][6]. Summary by Sections Pig Price Fluctuations and Production Capacity - Pig prices are on a downward trend, with the average price in August 2025 at 13.8 CNY/kg, down 32% year-on-year and 5.6% month-on-month [10]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs in August 2025 is reported at 36.8 CNY per head, a significant decline of 94% year-on-year and 64% month-on-month [14]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a trend of capacity reduction in the industry [14]. Market Supply and Demand - In August 2025, 15 listed pig companies collectively marketed 15.21 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 23% [32]. - The sales of piglets decreased to 1.21 million heads, reflecting a seasonal decline [32]. - The average weight of marketed pigs fell to 121 kg, down 0.5% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month [48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear cost advantages and strong performance, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, while also suggesting to monitor other companies like Shennong Group and DeKang Agriculture [1][6]. - The report anticipates that the supply-side reforms in the pig farming industry may lead to improved cash flow for leading companies, enhancing their intrinsic value [1][6].