招商证券主要观点如下： 出栏同环比明显增长，出栏体重环比回落。从出栏量上看，2025年10月，15家上市猪企合计出栏生猪 1752万头，同比+30%、环比+23%，主要系龙头猪企产能释放所致，整体仍处产能释放期。15家上市猪 企出栏量同比均实现正增长，其中新五丰、正邦科技、中粮家佳康、巨星农牧、神农集团、傲农生物、 金新农出栏量同比增幅均超50%，分别为57%、67%、82%、68%、65%、73%、67%。从出栏结构上 看，2025年10月，上市猪企合计出栏仔猪144万头，同比+144%，占生猪出栏比重提升0.4个百分点至 20%。从出栏体重上看，2025年10月，主要上市猪企出栏体重继续回落，9家上市猪企出栏均重121kg， 同比-1.9%、环比-1.5%。 风险提示：农产品价格波动超预期，突发大规模不可控疾病，重大食品安全事件，上市公司销量/成本 不达预期。 生猪供给端仍较为宽松，同时受产能调控影响，集团猪企降重出栏，增加短期供给压力，拖累猪价月内 明显下行，带动行业亏损扩大，10月全国能繁母猪产能环比去化幅度扩大至1.1%。上市猪企产能仍处 释放期，10月出栏量同环比明显增长。反内卷&行业亏损双管齐下 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 11 月 27 日 猪价旺季回落，母猪产能去化明显提速 生猪养殖行业 202510 月报点评 消费品/农林牧渔 生猪供给端仍较为宽松，同时受产能调控影响，集团猪企降重出栏，增加短期 供给压力，拖累猪价月内明显下行，带动行业亏损扩大，10 月全国能繁母猪产 能环比去化幅度扩大至 1.1%。上市猪企产能仍处释放期，10 月出栏量同环比明 显增长。反内卷 & 行业亏损双管齐下，10 月起母猪产能加速去化趋势明显， 或进一步抬升 26 年猪价中枢，"低成本+"猪企现金流或大幅改善，持续提升 内在价值。我们重点推荐牧原股份、温氏股份，建议关注神农集团、德康农牧、 东瑞股份、中粮家佳康等。 ❑ 风险提示：农产品价格波动超预期，突发大规模不可控疾病，重大食品安全 事件，上市公司销量/成本不达预期。 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 24EPS | 25EPS | 25PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海大集团 | 002311.SZ | 93.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for several companies in the pig farming industry, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [2]. Core Insights - The pig price is experiencing a downward trend due to seasonal demand weakness and government policies aimed at reducing sow production capacity, which may support prices as consumption enters a peak season [1][6]. - The report highlights that the industry is in a capacity release phase, with significant increases in the number of pigs being marketed, while the sales of piglets are seasonally declining [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost advantages and strong performance capabilities of leading companies, recommending specific firms for investment [1][6]. Summary by Sections Pig Price Fluctuations and Production Capacity - Pig prices are on a downward trend, with the average price in August 2025 at 13.8 CNY/kg, down 32% year-on-year and 5.6% month-on-month [10]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs in August 2025 is reported at 36.8 CNY per head, a significant decline of 94% year-on-year and 64% month-on-month [14]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a trend of capacity reduction in the industry [14]. Market Supply and Demand - In August 2025, 15 listed pig companies collectively marketed 15.21 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 23% [32]. - The sales of piglets decreased to 1.21 million heads, reflecting a seasonal decline [32]. - The average weight of marketed pigs fell to 121 kg, down 0.5% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month [48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear cost advantages and strong performance, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, while also suggesting to monitor other companies like Shennong Group and DeKang Agriculture [1][6]. - The report anticipates that the supply-side reforms in the pig farming industry may lead to improved cash flow for leading companies, enhancing their intrinsic value [1][6].