Core Viewpoint - The pork market is experiencing a significant decline in prices, with both live pig and pork prices dropping sharply, leading to challenges for vendors and producers [2][3][4]. Price Trends - The price of white strip pork has fallen to 13.8-15.3 yuan/kg, while the national average price for live pigs is 12.50 yuan/kg, down 0.7% from the end of September and over 20% from the end of 2024 [2][5]. - The average price of live pigs from January to September 2023 was 15.1 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% [3]. - Pork wholesale prices have also dropped below 19 yuan/kg, reaching a new low of 18.85 yuan/kg on October 10 [6]. Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by an oversupply, with live pig prices dropping below 13 yuan/kg and pork prices continuing to decline [5][6]. - The futures market for live pigs has seen a significant drop, with a cumulative decline of about 9% in September and over 8% in the first two trading days of October [6]. Producer Challenges - Producers are facing substantial losses, with self-breeding operations losing over 50 yuan per pig and those purchasing piglets facing losses of around 150 yuan [7]. - The decline in prices has led to a slowdown in the sales of pigs, with some producers delaying their selling plans due to anticipated further price drops [7][8]. Company Performance - Major companies like Muyuan Foods reported a significant drop in sales prices and revenues, with September sales averaging 12.88 yuan/kg, down 30.94% year-on-year [3][8]. - New Hope and Wens Foodstuff Group also reported declines in sales revenue and average prices, indicating a broader trend across the industry [8]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to maintain a state of oversupply in the fourth quarter, limiting the potential for price recovery [9]. - Government policies aimed at regulating production and stabilizing prices are being implemented, including the storage of frozen pork and adjustments to breeding practices [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for several companies in the pig farming industry, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [2]. Core Insights - The pig price is experiencing a downward trend due to seasonal demand weakness and government policies aimed at reducing sow production capacity, which may support prices as consumption enters a peak season [1][6]. - The report highlights that the industry is in a capacity release phase, with significant increases in the number of pigs being marketed, while the sales of piglets are seasonally declining [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost advantages and strong performance capabilities of leading companies, recommending specific firms for investment [1][6]. Summary by Sections Pig Price Fluctuations and Production Capacity - Pig prices are on a downward trend, with the average price in August 2025 at 13.8 CNY/kg, down 32% year-on-year and 5.6% month-on-month [10]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs in August 2025 is reported at 36.8 CNY per head, a significant decline of 94% year-on-year and 64% month-on-month [14]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a trend of capacity reduction in the industry [14]. Market Supply and Demand - In August 2025, 15 listed pig companies collectively marketed 15.21 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 23% [32]. - The sales of piglets decreased to 1.21 million heads, reflecting a seasonal decline [32]. - The average weight of marketed pigs fell to 121 kg, down 0.5% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month [48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear cost advantages and strong performance, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, while also suggesting to monitor other companies like Shennong Group and DeKang Agriculture [1][6]. - The report anticipates that the supply-side reforms in the pig farming industry may lead to improved cash flow for leading companies, enhancing their intrinsic value [1][6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in national pork reserves and declining pig prices indicate a critical phase for the pork industry, with the government intervening to stabilize prices while promoting the transition to higher quality production capacity [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The national average price for frozen pork was auctioned at 19.90 to 20.00 yuan per kilogram, translating to a live pig price of approximately 13.6 to 13.8 yuan per kilogram, marking a potential bottom for current pig prices [1]. - The pig-to-grain ratio has fallen below the warning line of 6:1, indicating a concerning trend for the industry [1]. - The overall pig inventory as of mid-2025 was reported at 42.447 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, while the total number of pigs slaughtered in the first half of the year was 36.619 million, up 0.6% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Production Adjustments - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has mandated the elimination of inefficient sows and control over secondary fattening and slaughter weights to alleviate overcapacity in the industry [1]. - In July, the number of sows eliminated increased by 2.1% month-on-month, while the total breeding sow inventory decreased by 10,000 heads to 40.42 million heads [2]. - Major enterprises are leveraging technological and managerial advantages to accelerate capacity consolidation, while smaller farms are gradually exiting low-efficiency production under policy guidance [1][2]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The profitability of pig farming has been maintained for about a year and a half, with leading companies reducing costs to around 12 yuan per kilogram, while others hover around 13 yuan per kilogram [3]. - Companies are optimizing sow structures and improving production efficiency, which has become a significant barrier to capacity reduction due to sustained profit realization [3]. - The average weight of pigs at the end of August was reported at 127.83 kilograms, an increase of 1.1 kilograms year-on-year, indicating a trend towards heavier pigs in the market [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to face increased supply pressure in the second half of the year, with a predicted rise in the number of market-ready pigs due to higher birth rates in April and May [4]. - Short-term price increases are anticipated due to seasonal factors and market sentiment, but the overall price increase potential remains limited [5]. - The market is likely to experience a demand lull post the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, which may suppress pig prices as supply recovers [5].

Core Viewpoint - The pork prices in China are experiencing a prolonged period of low levels despite seasonal expectations for an increase, with recent government interventions having limited impact on price recovery [2][4]. Price Trends - As of August 29, the average pork price in wholesale markets was 19.94 yuan per kilogram, showing a slight increase from 19.82 yuan per kilogram the previous day [2]. - The pork prices at Xinfadi market were reported at 19 to 23 yuan per kilogram for pork belly and 15.8 to 17 yuan per kilogram for whole pigs, reflecting a significant decline of 22.36% compared to the average price of 20.35 yuan per kilogram from the previous year [4]. - The overall trend indicates that pork prices have fluctuated but remain low, with a notable drop from 16.57 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of January to a low of 14.58 yuan per kilogram in mid-June [4][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The northern farming sector is holding back on sales to maintain prices, while the southern regions are experiencing a decline in prices, leading to a disparity in the national market [2]. - Factors such as school holidays and high temperatures are negatively impacting demand, contributing to an oversupply situation [2][8]. - Predictions suggest that the fourth quarter will see ample supply, limiting the potential for significant price increases, with only minor upward adjustments expected [2][6]. Government Interventions - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans for central frozen pork reserves to stabilize market expectations and ensure reasonable returns for farmers [7]. - Recent policies have been implemented to control production, including reducing the number of breeding sows and managing the weight of pigs at slaughter [8][9]. Industry Outlook - The pork industry is expected to undergo structural adjustments, with a focus on sustainable development and the promotion of medium-sized family farms [10]. - The industry is moving towards a balanced development model, with leading enterprises playing a crucial role in capacity regulation and market stabilization [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in pig prices indicate a downward trend, with prices dropping from a high of 8 yuan to a low of 6.4 yuan per kilogram, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the pig market [2] Group 1: Price Trends and Government Actions - The central government announced a pork reserve of 10,000 tons to stabilize the market, marking the second such action this year, with the first occurring in June [2] - The pig-to-grain price ratio fell to 5.94 in the second week of August, entering a warning zone for excessive price declines, although the first reserve action in June occurred when the ratio was above 6:1 [4] - The early initiation of the reserves aims to promote a stable landing for pig prices rather than simply preventing further declines [4][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a strong supply and weak demand scenario, necessitating a reduction in production capacity and weight of pigs, leading to increased slaughter rates [7][13] - Despite potential increases in pork consumption due to seasonal factors in September, the overall growth in demand is expected to be limited [8][9] - Farmers are under pressure from rising feed costs, which may lead to a rush to sell pigs if consumption does not meet expectations, potentially causing a sharp price drop [10][11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The pig price is expected to continue a downward trend characterized by fluctuations rather than a steep decline, as seen from June to August [14] - The government aims to maintain prices within a micro-profit range to avoid significant losses for farmers, indicating a prolonged period of low prices and market adjustments [15]