1月13日，近期加密货币市场的剧烈波动引发了投资者对比特币是否已经"利好出尽"的担忧。 EasyMarkets易信认为，通过对历史数据的深度复盘可以发现，当前的震荡行情更倾向于牛市进程中 的"周期中段修正"，而非趋势性的全面反转。虽然比特币从10月初12.6万美元的高位回落，但这种调整 节奏在过往的强力牛市中并不罕见。 市场分析中存在一种观点，认为比特币每四年一次的减半周期决定了其见顶时间，空头据此预测熊市已 至。然而，EasyMarkets易信表示，事实数据提供了不同的维度：在2013、2017及2021年的周期顶点 后，价格在最初90天内的跌幅分别高达71%、70%和51%；相比之下，本次从10月8日见顶至今的90天 内，比特币仅回撤了36%。这种相对温和的跌幅特征与2024年ETF上市后的中段调整极为相似，显示出 市场底部支撑依然坚韧。 责任编辑：陈平 波动特性，使其逐渐摆脱过去那种"暴涨暴跌"的极端循环。若能维持在关键支撑位上方，市场风险偏好 有望随着流动性的改善而再度抬升。 综合来看，虽然宏观环境的不确定性依然存在，但数据指向的周期尚未终结。EasyMarkets易信总结认 为，投资者不应被短期的价 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant price drop after reaching a peak of over $126,000 in October, erasing all gains for 2025, despite a year that was expected to solidify its authority in the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Wall Street has entered the cryptocurrency space, with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bringing cryptocurrencies into mainstream investment portfolios, and the Trump administration fully embracing cryptocurrencies [2] - Despite these developments, Bitcoin's total market capitalization has plummeted by approximately $600 billion from its October peak, indicating a rapid loss of market confidence without clear reasons [2] - The cryptocurrency market is characterized by volatility, but the current situation is marked by a swift decline in confidence among traders, leading to anxiety and a search for buyers [2] Group 2: Historical Patterns and Future Outlook - Bitcoin's supply increase is designed to halve approximately every four years, with the next halving event expected in April 2024, which historically has led to speculative booms followed by painful crashes [2] - The recent peak in Bitcoin prices in October aligns with historical patterns, but the influence of financially strong buyers raises questions about whether past trends will repeat [2] - Retail sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is currently very poor, with concerns about a repeat of the four-year cycle leading to early withdrawals from the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's price has sharply declined after reaching a historical high in October, erasing all gains for 2025 and dropping below $93,714, which is lower than its closing price at the end of 2024, indicating a loss of over 30% in annual gains [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's total market capitalization has evaporated by approximately $600 billion compared to its peak in October, leading to a rapid and unexpected market downturn [1] - The current decline is characterized by a swift evaporation of market confidence, occurring in a year that was expected to solidify Bitcoin's legitimacy with the approval of spot ETFs and support from the Trump administration [1] - Market participants are reverting to familiar models, such as the four-year "halving" cycle, which historically leads to speculative booms followed by painful downturns [2] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Concerns about a potential repeat of the four-year cycle are causing investors to preemptively withdraw from the market to avoid significant losses [4] - The recent downturn reflects market fatigue and disappointment, with retail investors suffering losses while chasing high-priced crypto stocks [5] - Analysts note that Bitcoin's trading behavior is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors and liquidity dynamics rather than predictable supply shocks [5] Group 3: Institutional Investment Trends - Institutional inflows into Bitcoin have stagnated, with some long-term holders cashing out, indicating a loss of market premium for holding Bitcoin [6] - The enthusiasm among institutional investors has cooled, as even the most steadfast supporters are no longer receiving market rewards for their holdings [6] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Bitcoin faces macroeconomic headwinds and competition from emerging speculative assets like AI, stablecoins, and prediction markets, which are gaining traction [8] - Despite a well-functioning market infrastructure, recent price drops have been a significant setback for investors who anticipated Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end [8] - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics may disrupt traditional cycles, with global liquidity potentially returning following the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown [8]

Core Insights - Standard Chartered's report predicts significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and corporate purchases in the second half of 2025, surpassing the second quarter's total of 245,000 Bitcoins [1][2][5] - Key drivers for the third quarter include potential changes in the Federal Reserve leadership and the passage of the U.S. stablecoin bill [1][13] - Bitcoin is expected to reach approximately $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and $200,000 by the end of the fourth quarter, indicating a shift away from previous price decline patterns post-halving [1][2][21] Inflows and Market Dynamics - In the second quarter, Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate purchases totaled 245,000 Bitcoins, with expectations for this figure to increase in the following quarters [2][5] - The second quarter saw Bitcoin reaching a historical high of $112,000, driven by strong inflows, including $12.4 billion from U.S. spot ETFs [5][6] - The trend of investors shifting from gold to Bitcoin is evident, with Bitcoin ETF inflows significantly exceeding those of gold ETFs [7] ETF Performance - The report anticipates that ETF purchases in the third quarter will exceed those of the second quarter, which recorded a net purchase of 120,000 Bitcoins [6][10] - Total net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs reached $48.7 billion by the end of the second quarter, with a notable increase in the second quarter alone [6][10] Corporate Purchases - Corporate financial departments are becoming a strong driver of Bitcoin inflows, with non-MicroStrategy entities purchasing 56,000 Bitcoins in the second quarter [10][11] - The overall corporate sector is expected to surpass second-quarter purchases in the third quarter, contributing positively to Bitcoin's market dynamics [11][21] Regulatory and Policy Factors - Potential changes in U.S. monetary policy, including the replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, are expected to positively influence Bitcoin prices [13][15] - The anticipated passage of the U.S. stablecoin regulation bill could further integrate digital assets into mainstream finance, benefiting Bitcoin [13][14] Halving Cycle Considerations - The upcoming halving event in April 2024 is projected to create volatility in Bitcoin prices, with concerns about historical price declines following previous halvings [16][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of increased ETF and corporate inflows to counteract potential sell-offs by long-term holders during the halving cycle [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is potentially entering a parabolic uptrend phase, supported by historical price cycles and technical indicators, suggesting further upward movement before reaching a peak around October 2025 [1][5][6] Bitcoin Price Cycle Analysis - Historical data indicates that previous Bitcoin cycles lasted approximately 1064 days, with the current cycle expected to reach this duration by October 2025, implying room for price increases [1] - The price trend from April to May shows a clear upward movement, with the RSI breaking above 50, indicating a new bullish trend [1] - The MACD is nearing a bullish crossover, which would further confirm the establishment of a new upward trend [1] Technical Patterns - Bitcoin appears to be breaking out of a bullish flag pattern, with the historical high of $109,000 serving as a critical resistance level [2] - The potential for a price pullback before testing the $109,000 level is noted, indicating market volatility [2] Economic Influences - The finalization of trade agreements could positively impact the stock market and, consequently, Bitcoin prices, as market uncertainties diminish [2] - Anticipation of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could enhance market liquidity, benefiting both Bitcoin and stock markets, although this depends on upcoming inflation data [2][4] Price Target and Projections - The expected peak price for Bitcoin in this cycle is projected to be around $150,000, based on Fibonacci levels, which is ten times the cycle's bottom price of $15,000 [5] - The parabolic uptrend phase is expected to last approximately six months, potentially starting in April and continuing until September 2025 [5][6]