来源|国际财闻汇 在交易柜台和社交媒体上，焦虑情绪正在蔓延。交易员们翻阅旧图表，重拾老理论，四处寻找买家。由于在华尔街上，比特币也没有什么传统章法 —— 既无某种稳定的相关性，也没有经验证的风险框架。一些人只能依赖他们最熟悉的模型：四年一轮的减半周期。 根据底层设计，比特币供应增幅每过四年左右就会减半一次。历史上，"减半事件"的发生往往会引发投机热潮，接着是痛苦的崩盘，而且这通常会有 滞后性，因为"矿工" ——维护比特币网络的强大计算机的运营商 —— 往往会在价格开始下跌时抛售他们持有的比特币。 在当前这个周期，"减半"发生在2024年4月。然后比特币价格在今年10月达到顶峰。这大致符合以往的节奏。但随着财力雄厚的买家开始左右市场， 这种剧情是否还能重演就成了未知数。 "加密货币市场的散户情绪非常差，市场可能仍有下跌空间，"Bitwise Asset Management首席投资官Matthew Hougan称；他认为明年价格还会上 涨。"人们担心四年周期重演，不想再经历一次50%的回调。所以人们正在提前撤退。" 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 比特币多头万事俱备 —— 华尔街的支持、政治利好、机构资金。唯独欠缺 ...

在今年10月创下历史新高后，近日比特币价格急转直下，一度抹去2025年的全部涨幅。 昨日，比特币价格一度跌破93714美元。这一价格水平已低于其2024年底的收盘价，意味着年内一度超过30%的年度涨幅已被"全部抹去"。 最新数据显示，与10月份的高点相比，比特币的总市值已蒸发约6000亿美元。这场快速、猛烈且缺乏明确触发因素的下跌，让整个市场措手不 及。 对于一个波动性本就是常态的资产而言，这次的不同之处在于市场信心的蒸发速度之快。这轮下跌发生在一个本应是比特币合法性得到巩固的年 份——现货ETF的获批将加密资产带入主流投资组合，而特朗普政府的公开支持更是为市场注入了强心剂。 加密数据公司Nansen的分析师Jake Kennis指出，"目前，比特币的交易方式更像是一种嵌入机构投资组合中的宏观资产，它对流动性、政策和美元 动态的反应，超过了对可预测的供应冲击的反应。" 尽管机构化的讨论不绝于耳，但市场交易在很大程度上仍受"氛围"驱动。而眼下，市场的氛围很糟糕，风险偏好已经逆转。 机构资金流入停滞，溢价消失 然而，现实却是预期的落空。焦虑情绪正在交易室和社交媒体上蔓延，交易员们重新审视旧图表，试图从历史中寻找答 ...

Core Insights - Standard Chartered's report predicts significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and corporate purchases in the second half of 2025, surpassing the second quarter's total of 245,000 Bitcoins [1][2][5] - Key drivers for the third quarter include potential changes in the Federal Reserve leadership and the passage of the U.S. stablecoin bill [1][13] - Bitcoin is expected to reach approximately $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and $200,000 by the end of the fourth quarter, indicating a shift away from previous price decline patterns post-halving [1][2][21] Inflows and Market Dynamics - In the second quarter, Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate purchases totaled 245,000 Bitcoins, with expectations for this figure to increase in the following quarters [2][5] - The second quarter saw Bitcoin reaching a historical high of $112,000, driven by strong inflows, including $12.4 billion from U.S. spot ETFs [5][6] - The trend of investors shifting from gold to Bitcoin is evident, with Bitcoin ETF inflows significantly exceeding those of gold ETFs [7] ETF Performance - The report anticipates that ETF purchases in the third quarter will exceed those of the second quarter, which recorded a net purchase of 120,000 Bitcoins [6][10] - Total net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs reached $48.7 billion by the end of the second quarter, with a notable increase in the second quarter alone [6][10] Corporate Purchases - Corporate financial departments are becoming a strong driver of Bitcoin inflows, with non-MicroStrategy entities purchasing 56,000 Bitcoins in the second quarter [10][11] - The overall corporate sector is expected to surpass second-quarter purchases in the third quarter, contributing positively to Bitcoin's market dynamics [11][21] Regulatory and Policy Factors - Potential changes in U.S. monetary policy, including the replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, are expected to positively influence Bitcoin prices [13][15] - The anticipated passage of the U.S. stablecoin regulation bill could further integrate digital assets into mainstream finance, benefiting Bitcoin [13][14] Halving Cycle Considerations - The upcoming halving event in April 2024 is projected to create volatility in Bitcoin prices, with concerns about historical price declines following previous halvings [16][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of increased ETF and corporate inflows to counteract potential sell-offs by long-term holders during the halving cycle [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is potentially entering a parabolic uptrend phase, supported by historical price cycles and technical indicators, suggesting further upward movement before reaching a peak around October 2025 [1][5][6] Bitcoin Price Cycle Analysis - Historical data indicates that previous Bitcoin cycles lasted approximately 1064 days, with the current cycle expected to reach this duration by October 2025, implying room for price increases [1] - The price trend from April to May shows a clear upward movement, with the RSI breaking above 50, indicating a new bullish trend [1] - The MACD is nearing a bullish crossover, which would further confirm the establishment of a new upward trend [1] Technical Patterns - Bitcoin appears to be breaking out of a bullish flag pattern, with the historical high of $109,000 serving as a critical resistance level [2] - The potential for a price pullback before testing the $109,000 level is noted, indicating market volatility [2] Economic Influences - The finalization of trade agreements could positively impact the stock market and, consequently, Bitcoin prices, as market uncertainties diminish [2] - Anticipation of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could enhance market liquidity, benefiting both Bitcoin and stock markets, although this depends on upcoming inflation data [2][4] Price Target and Projections - The expected peak price for Bitcoin in this cycle is projected to be around $150,000, based on Fibonacci levels, which is ten times the cycle's bottom price of $15,000 [5] - The parabolic uptrend phase is expected to last approximately six months, potentially starting in April and continuing until September 2025 [5][6]