基本面方面，近期海外矿端扰动带来阶段性情绪提振，不过未造成实质影响，供应端减产规模有限，反 弹高度与持续性受限。原料端，几内亚新矿发运量增加，进口矿价格承压；国内北方铝土矿复产且有新 矿投产预期，国产矿供应将增。成本端，烧碱价格下滑，削弱氧化铝成本支撑。上周贵州部分氧化铝产 能开始检修，供应端运行产能减少，过剩预期略有放缓。但氧化铝现货价格仍有下跌预期，理论亏损产 能扩大，后续或继续检修减产。消费端，电解铝产能受"天花板"限制扩张受限，对氧化铝需求提振不 足。不过，氧化铝仓单库存 13.9 万吨，周内减少 3.8105 万吨，限制了期货价格跌幅。现货市场，持货 商积极出货，下游加工厂及贸易商谨慎观望，按需接货量有限，今日交投活跃度较低、成交欠佳。 综合来看，氧化铝过剩格局短期难改，成本下移进一步弱化支撑。海外扰动对产量影响有限，且年内海 外还有 600 万吨新增产能待投放，供应增量影响不大。国内现有检修产能不足以扭转供需，预计短时氧 化铝区间震荡运行，后续反弹需关注更多减产动态。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 长江有色网1月27日讯，今日氧化铝涨跌博弈，主力月2605合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The alumina market is experiencing a supply surplus and rising inventory levels, leading to downward pressure on prices, although there are signs of stabilization in late October [1][9]. Supply and Production - In October, China's bauxite production was 4.7723 million tons, a slight decrease of 2.2% month-on-month and a 6.9% year-on-year decline; cumulative production from January to October reached 50.5155 million tons, up 5.2% year-on-year [2]. - Domestic bauxite inventory at alumina plants was 52.45 million tons, showing a slight decrease but remaining at a high level, indicating weak replenishment intentions [2]. - In October, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production was 7.7853 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; cumulative production from January to October reached 74.458 million tons, up 8.1% year-on-year [4]. Inventory Levels - As of last week, the total alumina inventory in China reached 4.732 million tons, continuing to rise, with electrolytic aluminum plants holding 3.269 million tons of alumina, indicating sufficient raw material reserves [5]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's total alumina inventory reached 248,000 tons, with warehouse receipts at 237,000 tons, both at relatively high levels [5]. Downstream Impact - In October, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7421 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.5% and a year-on-year increase of 1.1%; however, production is expected to decline to 3.62 million tons in November due to environmental factors affecting some enterprises [8]. - The operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum remained stable at 4.406 million tons, with a utilization rate of 96.1%, indicating limited room for production increases [8]. Price Dynamics - Alumina prices are under significant pressure, nearing the industry's average cost line, which may lead to increased expectations for production cuts among alumina producers due to compressed industry profits [4][9]. - The overall supply-demand balance for alumina remains loose, with high inventory levels, suggesting limited further downside for prices due to strong cost support [9].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in prices, but the overall supply-demand dynamics suggest a potential oversupply situation in the medium term [1][3][4]. Market Performance - As of July 4, 2025, the main aluminum oxide futures contract closed at 3024 CNY/ton, with a weekly price change of 1.54% [1]. - The weekly trading range was between 2980 CNY/ton and 3083 CNY/ton, with a decrease in open interest by 21,409 contracts compared to the previous week [1]. Inventory and Production - Domestic aluminum oxide inventory at ports reached 43,000 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from the previous week [2]. - The total built capacity for metallurgical-grade aluminum oxide in the country is 110.82 million tons/year, with an operational capacity of 88.63 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97% [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Xinyi Futures, the macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with concerns about ore disturbances persisting, but domestic bauxite inventory remains high, limiting short-term supply tightness [3]. - The overall aluminum oxide production capacity is still increasing, while downstream demand is not expected to grow significantly, leading to a challenging oversupply scenario [3]. - Newhu Futures indicates that the downstream electrolytic aluminum plants are cautious about purchasing due to expectations of price declines, while aluminum oxide producers are maintaining stable prices without inventory pressure [4]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for aluminum oxide production capacity is stable, with slight increases in consumption, but the overall market remains in a state of supply abundance [4]. - There are plans for new production capacity in the future, and previously shut-down capacities may resume, reinforcing the expectation of oversupply in the medium term [4].