Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the alumina futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 2677.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.69% [1] - In December 2025, China's alumina imports totaled 227,760 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.99% but a significant year-on-year increase of 1390%. The total imports for 2025 are expected to decline by 15.63% compared to 2024 [2] - The export volume of alumina in December 2025 reached 205,860 tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 22.56% and a year-on-year increase of 9.32%. The total exports for 2025 are projected to grow by 42.75% compared to 2024 [2] Group 2 - According to Yide Futures, the logic for alumina production cuts is weak, and the oversupply situation is unlikely to change soon. The negative basis is attributed to different leading logic between near and far-month contracts, with a significant increase in registered warehouse receipts [4] - Guoxin Guozheng Futures notes that domestic alumina enterprises have not significantly reduced production, maintaining high operational capacity and continuous high output, leading to persistent supply pressure. The demand side is weak due to the off-season, with aluminum plants facing inventory accumulation and reduced delivery efficiency [4] - The current market conditions show increased selling pressure from holders as inventory rises, while downstream demand remains limited to essential purchases, resulting in overall poor transaction performance and pressure on alumina prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of weak demand, high inventory levels, and macroeconomic factors, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 16, the main aluminum oxide futures contract (2605) closed at 2751 yuan, down 35 yuan, a decrease of 1.26% [1]. - The total trading volume for the day was 874,460 contracts, an increase of 184,381 contracts or 26.72% compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Open interest decreased by 20,054 contracts, a decline of 2.77%, totaling 703,197 contracts [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from Guinea is steadily increasing, while Australian shipments have decreased due to the rainy season; however, overall imports to China are rising, putting pressure on import prices [2]. - Domestic aluminum oxide production remains high, with no large-scale reductions in output, contributing to ongoing supply pressure [2]. - Demand is weak due to the off-peak season, with aluminum smelters facing high raw material inventories and logistical challenges, leading to reduced purchasing activity [2]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - As of January 15, China's aluminum oxide social inventory reached 5.393 million tons, an increase of 75,000 tons from the previous week [2]. - The accumulation of inventory is causing sellers to increase their willingness to sell, while downstream demand remains limited to essential purchases only [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with expectations of continued pressure on prices due to excess supply and rising inventories [2]. - Attention is required on potential production cuts expected from late January to February, which may influence market conditions [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [1][6][43] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2507 of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated between around 20,010 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 20,300 yuan/ton [3][10] - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price fluctuated between 2,430 - 2,497 US dollars/ton [14] 2. Spot Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 20,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,410 yuan/ton, 20,585 yuan/ton, 20,435 yuan/ton, and 20,400 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium of electrolytic aluminum remained at around a premium of 80 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [17] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - In March 2025, the alumina supply - demand surplus was 30,000 tons, compared with a supply - demand gap of 110,000 tons in the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years. In March 2025, the cumulative supply - demand surplus of electrolytic aluminum was 277,200 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at an average level compared to the past 5 years [23] - As of April 2025, domestic imports of bauxite were 20,684,045.16 tons, an increase of 4,225,390.6 tons from the previous month [29] 4. Inventory Situation - As of May 23, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 141,289 tons, a decrease of 14,791 tons from the previous week. As of May 22, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 386,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly to 15.99% [33] - As of May 22, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 519,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 36,000 tons, in Wuxi was 150,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 15,000 tons, in Foshan was 228,000 tons, in Tianjin was 21,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 56,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 7,000 tons [33] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The US Supreme Court made a ruling on a personnel appointment and removal appeal case of a federal independent agency, hinting that the status of Federal Reserve board members is special and will be specially protected from being dismissed by the president. The US bond yield curve steepened significantly, with the 30 - year Treasury yield breaking through 5%. The Japanese government bond yield continued to rise, and the 40 - year Treasury yield reached a new high. The global alumina supply - demand continued to be in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum market also showed a supply - demand surplus. China's bauxite imports increased rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased rapidly and was at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly [5][42] 6. Future Outlook - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [6][43]