资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货研究 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2528 780 2438 -91 2025 年 9 月 29 日 以山东地区为基准，9 月 26 日山东液碱局部维稳，小长假来临，多数企业急于去库，短期市场依旧偏 弱运行。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱山东 32 碱现货仍承压，但未来氧化铝投产带来的乐观预期短期又无法证伪。近期 50 碱反而因区 域套利，价格出现上涨，50 碱-32 碱价差扩张，厂家 50 碱库存压力大幅缓解，50 碱的支撑会导致现货短期 进一步下跌空间或有限。 从氧化铝方面看，氧化铝高产量、高库存格局，使得利润被持续压缩，边际产能供应未来可能受利润影 响。虽然广西地区年底到明年年初存在 560 万吨新增产能的备货需求，后期氧化铝备货将带动国内 50 碱货 源流转，但低利润的格局也可能使得其他氧化铝厂的备货水平下滑。在囤货未开启前，市场也难以判断囤货 带来的缺口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - The current situation of caustic soda is weak, but the future expectations are not pessimistic. The market may show wide - range fluctuations. The current upward pressure on caustic soda comes from exports and alumina. Although there is an optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future, the current situation of high inventory and low profit in the alumina industry restricts the rise of caustic soda prices. Before the start of alumina production and the improvement of exports, the upward driving force is insufficient [5]. 2.2 PVC - PVC is expected to show range - bound fluctuations. The high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to change in the medium - term. The export market is under policy interference, and the growth rate may slow down. Although there are some short - term positive factors, the overall trend still faces pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Overview 3.1.1 Caustic Soda - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. There are production cuts and shutdowns in Northwest, Central, East, and North China [5]. - Demand: In the alumina sector, high production and high inventory will continue to compress profits. Although the current production willingness is high, there is a problem of regional supply - demand mismatch. Non - aluminum demand has increased month - on - month, and there will be a phased peak - season restocking in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Exports have improved recently, but the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is still weak [5]. - Viewpoint: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is under pressure, but the optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future cannot be falsified in the short term. The futures market is in a game between reality and expectation, showing wide - range fluctuations [5]. - Valuation: The marginal device cost in Shandong is calculated to be 2,188 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, pay attention to downstream restocking in mid - to late September and pre - production restocking of alumina after October. Do not participate in inter - period and inter - variety trading [5]. 3.1.2 PVC - Supply: The high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term. The maintenance volume is lower than that in 2023, and there will be more new capacity put into production in the future, especially in September, which will bring greater supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased in 2025. Exports will still be affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification, and the growth rate of export demand may slow down in the second half of the year. Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak, and enterprises' willingness to restock is low [7]. - Viewpoint: The PVC market is expected to show range - bound fluctuations. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports are subject to policy interference, so the medium - term trend still faces pressure [7]. - Valuation: The basis is weak, the month - to - month spread is weak, and the number of warehouse receipts continues to rise. The valuation is moderately high [7]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, the 01 contract has an upper pressure range of 5,000 - 5,150 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 4,800 - 4,850 yuan/ton. Do not participate in inter - period and inter - variety trading [7]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Price: The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,500 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 01 is weakening, and the 11 - 1 spread is also weakening [12][14]. - Spread: In 2025, caustic soda exports are expected to increase by at least 30% year - on - year, with annual exports possibly exceeding 4 million tons. The export market still has support, and the export profit has expanded. The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong has increased, and the price difference between flake and liquid caustic soda is at a high level. However, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [16][23][31]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Market Structure: Production is declining, and inventory is rising. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 378,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.02% and a year - on - year increase of 18.22% [35][36][37]. - Planned Maintenance: Pay attention to the maintenance in Shandong and Hebei in October. Many enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect the supply of caustic soda [41]. - Capacity Expansion: In 2025, the actual capacity expansion of caustic soda will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2 - 3%. Although there are still many new capacities planned to be put into production, considering the continuous losses in chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production may be lower than expected [42][45]. - Profit: The weak price of liquid chlorine has led to a decline in the overall profit of caustic soda. The decline in electricity prices has a significant impact on the cost of caustic soda [46][49]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina: The alumina industry is operating at a high capacity, but inventory is rising, and profits are declining. At the end of the year, the production of new alumina plants will drive up the rigid demand and inventory of caustic soda, especially the tank - filling demand before production, which will lead to a significant increase in the short - term inventory demand for caustic soda [75][81]. - Pulp: The pulp industry is experiencing continuous capacity expansion, and demand is gradually shifting to the peak season. The operating rate of the finished paper industry has increased month - on - month [83][89]. - Other Industries: The operating rate of viscose staple fiber has increased, the printing and dyeing industry has recovered, and the short - term demand has increased month - on - month. The water treatment industry has stable operations, and the output of the ternary precursor industry has increased [94][96][98]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The basis of PVC fluctuates, and the 1 - 5 spread is weakly fluctuating [105]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has decreased month - on - month. There are still seasonal maintenance plans in September - October 2025. There will be 2.2 million tons of new PVC capacity put into production in 2025, with more concentrated production in the second half of the year [110][114][115]. - Profit: The integrated plants in the Northwest have acceptable profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain's long - term trend of using caustic soda to subsidize chlorine makes it difficult for PVC to significantly reduce production due to losses [117][119]. - Inventory: PVC production enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory is increasing [121]. - Demand: The terminal demand in the real estate industry has not significantly recovered, but the overall operating rate of PVC downstream industries has increased month - on - month [126][132]. - Export: The export expectation of PVC has weakened. Although the cumulative exports from January to July increased year - on - year, the future export may be affected by India's anti - dumping policy [138][141]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of PVC warehouse receipts continues to rise [142].

烧碱：短期偏弱 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2560 850 2656 96 2025 年 9 月 15 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，今日，省内液碱整体表现稳定，非铝高价抵触，部分商谈订单下滑。近期关注主力 下游送货量及碱厂库存的变化。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱目前上涨驱动不足，盘面交易山东地区现货降价，短期现货仍有压力。目前烧碱上涨的堵点主要来 自出口和氧化铝。从出口方面看，Vinythai 新增产能、日韩高供应使得东南亚供应充足，出口利润始终无 法扩张，出口签单未改善，50 碱-32 碱价差偏弱，导致烧碱上涨驱动不足。从氧化铝方面看，氧化铝高产 量、高库存格局，使得利润被持续压缩，边际产能供应未来可能受利润影响。虽然今年年底广西地区存在 360 万吨产能预期投产，明年年初也有东方希望 200 万吨产能预期投产，后期氧化铝备货将带动国内 50 碱 货源流转，但囤货未开启前，市场难以期现共振。 整体看 ...

【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 烧碱：不宜追空 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2576 870 2719 143 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，今日，省内液碱市场整体持稳，鲁西南地区部分企业报价下调，出货放缓。近期关 注主力下游送货量及碱厂库存的变化。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱目前驱动不足，盘面预期博弈，市场呈现宽幅震荡。目前烧碱上涨的堵点主要来自出口和氧化铝。 从出口方面看，Vinythai 新增产能、日韩高供应使得东南亚供应充足，出口利润始终无法扩张，出口签单 未改善，50 碱-32 碱价差偏弱，导致烧碱上涨驱动不足。从氧化铝方面看，氧化铝高产量、高库存格局，使 得利润被持续压缩，边际产能供应未来可能受利润影响。虽然今年年底广西地区存在 360 万吨产能预期投 产，明年年初也有东方 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Bullish with caution on near - month warehouse receipts" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market's core driver is the continuous expansion of demand. With rising alumina demand and strong export support, the market is expected to have upward - driven spot prices during the downstream peak season. However, the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries may limit profit expansion and cause potential passive production cuts. Overall, a bullish view is maintained, but near - month warehouse receipts need attention in the short term [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 11 - contract is 2700, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 850, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2656, and the basis is - 44 [1] Spot News - Based on Shandong, supported by a 20 yuan/ton increase in the procurement price of major downstream, local caustic soda plants raised prices to varying degrees. With low inventory pressure, the short - term market is expected to remain at a high level [1] Market Condition Analysis - Demand side: Alumina's rigid and stocking demand is rising, especially with 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity expected to be put into operation in Guangxi by the end of this year, leading to tight local supply and increased demand for 50% caustic soda. The 93 - parade affects transportation, and a Shandong alumina plant may raise its procurement price. Export support remains strong, but inventory - building rhythms affect domestic prices [1] - Supply side: The weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries like PVC limits profit expansion and may cause passive production cuts in the future [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is bullish [1][3] Core Viewpoint - The current core driver of the caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. With the increasing rigid demand and stocking demand for alumina, especially the expected commissioning of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi by the end of this year, the supply of caustic soda in Guangxi is tight. The subsequent alumina stocking will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. The export support remains strong, but the stocking rhythm will affect domestic prices. On the supply side, the weakness of chlorine-consuming downstream industries such as PVC restricts profit expansion, and there may be passive production cuts of caustic soda in the future. Overall, the replenishment during the peak season of caustic soda downstream is likely to drive the spot price up, so a bullish view is maintained [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 18, 2025, the futures price of the 11th contract was 2,674. The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 850, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 2,656, and the basis was -18 [1] Spot News - Starting from August 18, major alumina manufacturers in Shandong increased the purchase price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda by 30 yuan/ton, with an ex-factory price of 800 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - The demand side is the core driver, with alumina demand rising. There is an expected 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity to be put into operation in Guangxi by the end of this year, leading to tight supply in the region. The high price difference between flake and liquid caustic soda will drive the circulation of 50% caustic soda. The 93rd parade affects transportation, and the purchase price of a Shandong alumina plant may be raised. Export support is strong, but stocking affects domestic prices. The weakness of chlorine-consuming downstream industries restricts profit expansion and may lead to passive production cuts. Downstream peak-season replenishment is likely to drive the spot price up [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a relatively bullish view within the [-2, 2] range [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and high warehouse receipts, the main contract of caustic soda futures declined significantly this week. The purchase price of Shandong alumina enterprises decreased, leading to a drop in the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong. Next week, there are many planned maintenance devices in the Northwest, East, and North China, which may cause a slight decline in the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda. The weak trend of Shandong liquid caustic soda prices may continue. In terms of futures, the decline of the SH2509 contract may be restricted by the delivery logic, and SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Price**: As of August 8, 2025, the SH2509 contract closed at 2,446 yuan/ton, down 3.66% from last week's close. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to 2,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply side, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 1.2% week - on - week to 85.1%. Demand side, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.13% week - on - week to 85.58% last week; the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 84.97% this week, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 0.38% week - on - week to 59.28%. Inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 8.84% week - on - week to 46.17 tons. The profit of Shandong chlor - alkali increased by 45 yuan/ton to 278 yuan/ton compared with last week [8]. - **Outlook**: Next week, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda may decline slightly. The alumina industry is expected to operate stably, while the non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season with weak demand. The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda may continue to be weak. In the futures market, the decline of SH2509 may be restricted, and SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main contract of caustic soda futures declined significantly this week, and the position of the 09 contract decreased slightly [9]. - **Spot Market - Shandong 32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The benchmark price is 800 yuan/ton, and the converted - to - 100% price is 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot decline is less than that of futures, and the market is slightly at a discount [14][20]. - **Spot Market - Other Regions' 32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The market price in Henan is 912 yuan/ton, with a converted - to - 100% price of 2,850 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 880 yuan/ton, with a converted - to - 100% price of 2,750 yuan/ton [25][30]. - **Spot Market - Shandong 99% Flake Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine**: The ex - factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong is 3,350 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine is - 150 yuan/ton [35]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream - Raw Salt**: The prices of raw salt in the Northwest and Shandong remained stable [41]. - **Upstream - Steam Coal**: The price of Qinhuangdao 5500K steam coal rose to 678 yuan/ton [46]. - **Industry Chain - Supply**: In July, the caustic soda output was 3.5833 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.88%. This week, the operating rate rose to 85.1% [49]. - **Industry Chain - Demand - Alumina**: In July, the alumina output was 8.0662 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 85.58% [54]. - **Industry Chain - Demand - Non - Aluminum Downstream**: This week, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 84.97%. The prices of alumina and viscose staple fiber were basically stable [58][61]. - **Industry Chain - Import and Export - Import**: In June, the caustic soda import volume was 0.09 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 0.42 million tons [67]. - **Industry Chain - Import and Export - Export**: In June, the caustic soda export volume was 35.05 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.0304 million tons [73]. - **Industry Chain - Inventory - Liquid Caustic Soda Sample Inventory**: The weekly enterprise sample inventory was 46.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.84% [78]. - **Industry Chain - Profit - ECU Profit**: This week, the chlor - alkali profit in Shandong increased week - on - week [81]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 27.93%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 24.57% [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The upside space for caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2800 price level. The supply of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain high, downstream demand is weak, and inventory has increased. The price of caustic soda has been falling due to weak demand in the Shandong region and a downward adjustment in the purchase price of alumina, the main downstream product. [3][6] - For different market participants, corresponding option trading strategies are recommended to manage inventory and procurement risks. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications, including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has been adjusted downward, with poor trading for high - concentration caustic soda. [11] - The report provides price data for different regions and specifications of caustic soda, including 32 - alkali in Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan; 50 - alkali in Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan; and 99 - flake caustic soda in Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. [12][20][27] 2. Spread 2.1 Model Spread - The report shows the price spreads between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99 - flake caustic soda and 32 - alkali in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong. [37] 2.2 Regional Spread - It presents the regional price spreads of 32 - alkali (Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong, Jiangsu - Shandong), 50 - alkali (Jiangsu - Shandong, Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong), and 99 - flake caustic soda (Shandong - Shaanxi, Shandong - Inner Mongolia). [37] 3. Supply 3.1 Load and Output - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. This week, the domestic caustic soda production is expected to be 828,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,600 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04%. [55] 3.2 Maintenance Situation - Many enterprises' chlor - alkali plants have completed maintenance or are in the process of maintenance. This week, the impact of maintenance on production is smaller than last week. The report lists the maintenance situations of multiple chlor - alkali plants, including those in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, Hubei, and Gansu. [55][60] 3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operation - The report details the operation status of flake caustic soda plants of various manufacturers, including normal operation, reduced load, and maintenance. [64] 4. Downstream Demand 4.1 Alumina - This week, the supply of alumina has changed little. The supply - demand imbalance in different regions still exists. As of August 7, the installed capacity of alumina in China is 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity is 94.4 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.23%. [67] 4.2 Viscose Staple Fiber - From August 1 to August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 84.97%, the same as last week, and the domestic viscose plants are operating stably. [67] 4.3 Printing and Dyeing Industry - As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry in the Yangtze River region is 69.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The market demand is still weak, and it is expected that the demand will gradually pick up after mid - September. [67] 5. Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda plants is 376,930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%, and the inventory of flake caustic soda plants is 23,555 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.65%. [80] 6. Valuation 6.1 Cost - The cost of caustic soda production mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. This week, the domestic industrial salt market has declined slightly, and the domestic thermal coal market price has risen. [84] 6.2 Profit - This week, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the spot market has been compressed, with a slight increase in the cost side and a weakening of the liquid caustic soda market price. [85] 7. Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report provides data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, and the production profits of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, etc. [97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic manufacturing PMI index declined in July, and the new round of US tariff policies put pressure on the market. The supply in the East China region remained stable this week with no planned device maintenance, resulting in sufficient supply. Non - aluminum demand did not improve significantly, and the off - season continued. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong Province may decline. Although caustic soda has strong downward support, market sentiment has cooled recently, with sharp price fluctuations. The near - month contracts will face certain warehouse receipt pressure. It is recommended to focus on the 9 - 11 reverse spread. The upper reference pressure level for the caustic soda 2509 contract is 2650 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2350 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong showed a weak trend, and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong widened. From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the price of 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and the price difference between different regions were presented. During the period from July 25th to July 31st, 2025, the prices of sea salt, 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, and 98% flake caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of liquid chlorine increased by 42.86% to - 200 yuan/ton, the price of alumina increased by 0.63% to 3215 yuan/ton, the price of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.79% to 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 1.46% to 69500 yuan/ton [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the futures closing prices of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, PVC, and the number of warehouse receipts were presented [15]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate**: From January to July 2025, the average operating rate of sample caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 83.9%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period. The operating rates in North China, South China, and East China increased, while those in the Northwest and Northeast decreased. Shandong's operating rate increased by 0.5% to 87.9%. It is expected that the operating rate will be around 83.6%, and the weekly production will be about 808,600 tons. Multiple enterprises in different regions have planned maintenance, such as Leshan Fuhua in Sichuan from August 1st to August 16th, and Shandong Hualu from August 8th with the restart date to be determined [23][24]. - **Downstream: Alumina**: As of July 31st, 2025, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.8 million tons. The supply of alumina increased, with a significant increase in the north and tight supply in the south due to roasting furnace maintenance [27]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31st, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 424,200 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.37% compared to the previous period. The inventory trends varied in different regions, with an upward trend in North China, a decline in South China and Central China, an increase in East China and Southwest China, and a decrease in the Northwest [33]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of July 31st, 2025, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 30.36% to - 279 yuan/ton. As of August 1st, 2025, the operating rate of PVC in China was 76.84%, an increase of 0.05% compared to the previous period, and it is expected to reach 78.39% this week. The average weekly profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 233 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 71.02% [37][38].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - This week, caustic soda futures prices fluctuated and consolidated, while spot prices rose slightly in some areas. The supply shortage situation has been alleviated to some extent due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled plants. There is no significant boost from the demand side, and the off - season of non - aluminum demand continues. Traders and downstream users are resistant to high - priced caustic soda. It is expected that caustic soda prices may fluctuate weakly next week. Attention should be paid to the changes in the liquid chlorine subsidy price in North China and the operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises in the future [10]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Futures Market - This week, the caustic soda futures price reached a high and then declined, with narrow fluctuations during the week. The closing price of the main contract was 2469 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from last week. The trading volume and open interest both decreased. The trading volume was [X] million lots, a decrease of [X] million lots from last week, and the open interest was [X] million lots, a decrease of [X] lots from last week [2][4][8]. b) Spot Market Analysis - **Supply**: As of July 17, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.2%. The capacity utilization rates in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China increased to varying degrees, while that in Central China decreased due to the low price of liquid chlorine [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 38.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.56% [4]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Some viscose staple fiber plants in Shandong restarted this week, increasing the capacity utilization rate. The comprehensive operating rate in the printing and dyeing industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged [6]. c) Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot price of liquid caustic soda strengthened slightly in some areas, with price increases in North China and East China, and remained stable in other markets [8]. - **Futures Market**: This week, the caustic soda futures price reached a high and then declined, with narrow fluctuations during the week, and both trading volume and open interest decreased [8]. d) Associated Product Analysis - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of raw salt and electricity remained stable, and the production cost remained basically unchanged [8]. - **Downstream Products**: The recent start - up of alumina has increased, mainly to replenish previous long - term contracts. The overall spot market is tight, and some enterprises and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. There is no significant change in non - aluminum downstream demand. The subsidy for the by - product liquid chlorine decreased this week, and the overall chlor - alkali profit increased [8].