Group 1 - The domestic aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract trading at 3053.0 CNY/ton and a decline of approximately 3.10% [1] - Supply from mining sources remains normal, with Guinea and Australia maintaining steady shipping volumes, leading to a situation of oversupply [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide inventory is decreasing, but the pace of reduction is slowing down, while the current price is significantly higher than the futures price, indicating a standard backwardation structure [1] Group 2 - Overseas aluminum oxide transactions have been relatively quiet, with minor price fluctuations, while domestic prices are rising, turning imports from losses to profits [2] - The aluminum oxide spot price remains firm due to concentrated maintenance and production cuts, with the 2509 contract expected to stabilize around the 3000 CNY mark [2] - Despite the current balance in supply and demand, medium-term expectations of oversupply pressure still exist [2]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market has experienced a significant rebound after a nearly 50% decline since early December, with recent price increases attributed to supply-side adjustments and market sentiment improvements [2][3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent reports indicate a reduction in aluminum oxide inventory, suggesting a potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics, driven by production cuts and maintenance activities in the industry [4][5]. - The supply-side disruptions include a halt in production at certain facilities due to compliance reviews and mining license issues, which have contributed to a tightening of supply and a subsequent price rebound [3][4][5]. - Despite the recent positive trends, the overall supply situation remains precarious, with excess capacity still a concern, as evidenced by the high operating rates of aluminum oxide plants [5][6]. Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for aluminum oxide remains cautious, with expectations of continued oversupply due to planned capacity expansions and the potential for resumed production from recently idled facilities [6][7]. - The industry is closely monitoring regulatory developments regarding new capacity approvals, particularly in regions like Hebei, which could impact future supply levels [3][6][7]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term sentiment may be bullish, the fundamental oversupply conditions are unlikely to change significantly in the near term, keeping upward price pressures limited [6][7].