Industry Overview - The aluminum hydroxide industry in China is experiencing rapid growth driven by increasing market demand and economic development, with production expected to rise from 2.11 million tons in 2022 to 3.43 million tons by 2024 [1][6] - In March 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to limit new alumina production capacity and set a target for recycled aluminum production to reach 15 million tons by 2027 [1][6] - As a result of these policies, companies are shifting focus from "scale expansion" to "quality efficiency," leading to a slight decline in production, with a 0.90% year-on-year decrease in the first half of 2025 [1][6] Industry Chain - The upstream of the aluminum hydroxide industry includes raw materials such as bauxite, caustic soda, and hydrochloric acid, as well as production equipment like pressure leaching systems and fluidized roasting furnaces [4] - The midstream involves the production and manufacturing of aluminum hydroxide, while the downstream applications include flame retardants, pharmaceuticals, electrical cables, insulation materials, coatings, and environmental protection [4] Market Dynamics - The price of alumina reached a nearly ten-year high in 2024 due to resource constraints and environmental regulations, which supported the aluminum hydroxide market [8] - In the fourth quarter of 2024, aluminum hydroxide prices exceeded 3,600 yuan per ton, marking a peak, but by June 2025, prices fell to 1,948 yuan per ton, a 20.33% decrease year-on-year [8] - The industry's gross profit margin fell to -13.24 yuan per ton in late June 2025, a 102.03% year-on-year decline, reflecting the transition pains from scale expansion to quality efficiency [10] Import and Export Trends - In the first half of 2025, China imported 31,900 tons of aluminum hydroxide, a 7.32% increase year-on-year, with an import value of 467 million yuan, up 26.19% [12] - Exports reached 238,600 tons, a 26.69% increase year-on-year, with an export value of 924 million yuan, up 14.86%, driven by higher international prices compared to domestic prices [12] Key Enterprises - China Aluminum Corporation, as a leading player, focuses on high-purity and high-performance ultra-fine aluminum hydroxide, with a revenue of 55.784 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 13.95% increase year-on-year [16] - Luoyang Zhongchao New Materials Co., Ltd. is recognized for its advanced technology in ultra-fine aluminum hydroxide and has received approval for a project to produce 120,000 tons of high-purity aluminum hydroxide annually [18] - Hebei Wenfeng Industrial Group is facing regulatory risks due to unauthorized production of alumina, with a capacity of 4.8 million tons per year, exceeding market demand [16] Development Trends - The industry is transitioning from a "scale-oriented" to a "technology-oriented" model, with high-end product demand driving growth [20] - Environmental policies and carbon tariffs are pushing companies towards green technologies, with significant energy and carbon emission reductions being achieved by leading firms [21] - The import dependency for high-end aluminum hydroxide products remains high, but domestic companies are accelerating technological breakthroughs to reduce reliance on imports [20][22]

Group 1: Industry Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals for copper prices still provide some support, and Shanghai copper is expected to remain range - bound before the holiday [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as inventory changes and export incentives [2]. - Nickel is expected to have limited downside due to cost support but is likely to experience weak and volatile trading in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus [4]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, and range trading is recommended, with attention on supply and demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - As of May 27, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract fell 0.01% to 77,900 yuan/ton. Macro - disturbances have weakened, but Sino - US trade issues remain uncertain. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the cost pressure on smelters limits price decline. Consumption in May is weaker than in April but better than the same period. Social inventory is at a low level with slight accumulation. The price is expected to be range - bound before the holiday [1]. - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices fell slightly, and the trading was sluggish [6]. - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,128 tons to 34,961 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 2,575 tons to 162,150 tons [15]. Aluminum - As of May 27, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.57% to 20,040 yuan/ton. Some mining licenses in Guinea were revoked. Alumina operating capacity is expected to recover gradually. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. The downstream开工 rate is weakening, but inventory has decreased unexpectedly. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - In the spot market, the trading was stable, and the downstream increased procurement [7]. - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 775 tons to 54,567 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 381,575 tons [15]. Nickel - As of May 27, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract fell 0.58% to 122,310 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and nickel downstream has limited acceptance of high - priced nickel ore. The refined nickel market has an oversupply situation. Nickel is expected to have limited downside due to cost but face long - term supply surplus and weak and volatile trading [3][4]. - In the spot market, nickel prices fell [12]. - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 130 tons to 22,120 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,362 tons to 199,998 tons [15]. Tin - As of May 27, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract rose 0.06% to 264,790 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and consumption in the semiconductor industry is expected to improve. Inventory is at a medium level. Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, and range trading is recommended [5]. - In the spot market, merchants maintained rigid - demand restocking [13]. - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 18 tons to 7,998 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2,660 tons [15]. Zinc - In the spot market, zinc prices rose, and downstream demand led to inventory reduction [9][10]. - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,774 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,350 tons to 151,150 tons [15]. Lead - In the spot market, lead prices fell, and the trading was dull [11]. - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,015 tons to 37,299 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 292,375 tons [15]. Alumina - In the spot market, alumina prices rose in different regions, and the trading was stable [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals still support copper prices, and Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a volatile pattern before the holiday [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as inventory changes and export incentives [2]. - Nickel is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus, although cost support limits the downside [3][4]. - Tin prices are expected to have greater volatility, and range trading is recommended, with attention to supply and demand changes [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basic Metals Copper - As of May 26, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract rose 0.57% to 78,270 yuan/ton. Macro disturbances are weakening, but Sino - US trade uncertainties remain. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the cost pressure of smelters limits price decline. Consumption in May weakened compared to April but is better than the same period. Social inventory is at a low level, and there may be some restocking sentiment before the Dragon Boat Festival [1]. Aluminum - As of May 26, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.05% to 20,155 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. Alumina operating capacity is expected to gradually recover, and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is increasing. The downstream开工率 is declining, but aluminum inventory has been unexpectedly depleted, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. Nickel - As of May 26, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.08% to 122,780 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the downstream nickel - iron industry has losses. The pure nickel is in surplus, and stainless steel demand is average. The cost of nickel is firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3][4]. Tin - As of May 26, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract fell 0.24% to 264,050 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and prices are oscillating. Production and imports have increased, and the semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are strong expectations of mine - end resumption. Prices are expected to fluctuate more, and range trading is recommended [5]. 2. Spot Transaction Summary Copper - Domestic spot copper prices rose. Due to limited restocking demand before the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream procurement was cautious, and only low - priced goods were purchased, with a slight increase in premiums [6]. Aluminum - The spot aluminum market was stable with a slight upward trend. Tight arrivals and inventory depletion supported sellers' price - holding sentiment, but some sellers increased shipments, and overall trading remained active [7]. Other Metals - For zinc, the spot market trading was mediocre, with high premiums due to pre - holiday restocking. For lead, the spot market trading was light. For nickel, the spot market trading was light due to the weekly effect. For tin, the spot market trading was average, and merchants were mainly in a wait - and - see mode [9][11][12][13]. 3. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while lead futures warehouse receipts increased, and zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. LME copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, and tin inventory remained unchanged [15].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market has experienced a significant rebound after a nearly 50% decline since early December, with recent price increases attributed to supply-side adjustments and market sentiment improvements [2][3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent reports indicate a reduction in aluminum oxide inventory, suggesting a potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics, driven by production cuts and maintenance activities in the industry [4][5]. - The supply-side disruptions include a halt in production at certain facilities due to compliance reviews and mining license issues, which have contributed to a tightening of supply and a subsequent price rebound [3][4][5]. - Despite the recent positive trends, the overall supply situation remains precarious, with excess capacity still a concern, as evidenced by the high operating rates of aluminum oxide plants [5][6]. Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for aluminum oxide remains cautious, with expectations of continued oversupply due to planned capacity expansions and the potential for resumed production from recently idled facilities [6][7]. - The industry is closely monitoring regulatory developments regarding new capacity approvals, particularly in regions like Hebei, which could impact future supply levels [3][6][7]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term sentiment may be bullish, the fundamental oversupply conditions are unlikely to change significantly in the near term, keeping upward price pressures limited [6][7].