Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The supply - side pressure of PVC is large, with production expected to rise due to restart of previous maintenance and new capacity. Demand is weak, with low downstream product start - up and reduced export orders. Social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and cost - side support is weak. For烧碱, the upstream supply is high, and there is short - term rigid demand support from the alumina industry. The profit of chlor - alkali has declined but is still above the neutral level in the same period [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of PVC futures main contract is 5010 yuan/ton (+17), the East China basis is - 150 yuan/ton (- 17), and the South China basis is - 110 yuan/ton (- 37). The East China calcium carbide method spot price is 4860 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method spot price is 4900 yuan/ton (- 20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The price of semi - coke is 595 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 14 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production is - 252 yuan/ton (- 231), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production is - 489 yuan/ton (- 10), and the PVC export profit is 8.8 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [1]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The in - plant inventory of PVC is 33.7 tons (- 0.8), the social inventory of PVC is 48.1 tons (+3.3), the calcium carbide method start - up rate of PVC is 77.83% (+3.41%), the ethylene method start - up rate of PVC is 77.55% (+7.31%), and the overall start - up rate of PVC is 77.75% (+4.49%). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 83.2 tons (- 2.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of SH futures main contract is 2492 yuan/ton (+46), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 8 yuan/ton (- 46). The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 645.8 yuan/ton (- 40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 483.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1618.15 yuan/ton (- 20.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 46.17 tons (+3.75), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.21 tons (+0.10), and the start - up rate of caustic soda is 85.10% (+1.20%). The start - up rate of alumina is 85.73% (+0.15%), the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 59.28% (+0.39%), and the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 84.97% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - **Supply**: The overall start - up has increased significantly month - on - month due to the return of previous maintenance and production resumption, and new production capacity is gradually being put into production, so the PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure is still large [3]. - **Demand**: The start - up of downstream products remains at a low level, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. Export orders have decreased month - on - month, and the export performance is still affected by India's PVC import policy and the rainy season [3]. - **Inventory and Cost**: PVC social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the absolute value of inventory is relatively high. The calcium carbide price is weak, and the ethylene price is mainly stable, so the cost - side support of PVC is still weak [3]. Caustic Soda - **Supply**: The upstream start - up has increased month - on - month to a high level in the same period, and enterprises have little willingness to reduce production due to profit support. Although the start - up in Shandong is also at a high level, some local enterprises have reduced their device loads, and Yantai Wanhua plans to carry out maintenance, so the start - up may decline slightly in the later period [3]. - **Demand**: The profit of alumina is good, the start - up continues to rise, and the delivery volume of the main downstream has increased month - on - month, with short - term rigid demand support. The start - up of non - aluminum sectors has not changed much and remains weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream products during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price of liquid chlorine continues to be weak, the cost support of caustic soda is strong, and the chlor - alkali profit has declined but is still above the neutral level in the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Cautiously short - sell for hedging. - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread of V09 - 01. - **Inter - variety**: None [4]. Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: None. - **Inter - variety**: None [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC market is weak with ample supply and sluggish demand, and the decline in social inventory has slowed down. The caustic soda market is also weak, with expected increased supply pressure and lack of positive drivers in the short term [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,844 yuan/ton (-52), the East China basis was -114 yuan/ton (+2), and the South China basis was -24 yuan/ton (+2) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (-50), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,820 yuan/ton (-50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit was -494 yuan/ton (+18), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit was -640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit was -11.4 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC was 40.2 million tons (+0.5), the social inventory of PVC was 35.5 million tons (+0.0), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 79.62% (-0.83%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall operation rate of PVC was 76.74% (-0.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.8 million tons (+1.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,274 yuan/ton (+2), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 164 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,446 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 783.3 yuan/ton (+39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 91.28 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 36.65 million tons (-3.88), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.85 million tons (+0.00), and the operation rate of caustic soda was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The operation rate of alumina was 80.74% (-0.13%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 60.73% (-0.63%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.80% (+0.24%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The easing of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the weak macro - sentiment have dragged down the PVC price. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The supply is abundant, the cost support is weak, the domestic demand is sluggish, and the export is increasing but has uncertainties [3] Caustic Soda - The operation rate of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is expected to intensify. The market transaction is weak, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has declined, and the demand side is also weak. The factory inventory is still at a high level [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish, pay attention to macro - export policies and the recovery of downstream demand [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral, the price has limited downward space in the short term, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali still has room to compress [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Both PVC and caustic soda are rated as neutral [11] Core Viewpoints PVC - Supply side: New device overhauls increased during the week, and the PVC operating rate decreased slightly. Supply reduction and stable export delivery led to continuous destocking of PVC social inventory. Future supply pressure may be alleviated. However, downstream demand is weak, and the cost - side support has weakened, with prices moving down. Export uncertainties remain, and the high absolute inventory still drags down prices [8] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Two new chlor - alkali enterprises carried out overhauls, and future overhauls are still numerous, so supply may be tightened. Demand side: Non - aluminum industries and downstream traders increased replenishment, leading to a significant decline in upstream inventory and a price rebound. But overall non - aluminum demand is weak, and the upward trend of prices is still under pressure [10] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - As of April 18, the average operating load rate of calcium carbide was 60.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58%. The overall operating load of PVC was 74.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08%. The loss due to parking and overhauls was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.40 tons from last week. Warehouse total inventory was 41.38 tons, a decrease of 0.85 tons from last week [3][4][5] Caustic Soda - As of April 18, the operating rate of caustic soda was 82.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.50%. The output was 79.20 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons from last week. The upstream inventory was 42.92 tons, a decrease of 5.31 tons from last week [6][7] Strategy - PVC: It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the implementation of overhauls and the recovery of downstream demand [11] - Caustic Soda: Although supply is expected to tighten slightly, the upward trend of prices is still under pressure. Pay attention to downstream procurement rhythm and the implementation of overhauls [11]