氯碱日报 | 2025-08-12 供需驱动不足，PVC走势承压 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5010元/吨（+17）；华东基差-150元/吨（-17）;华南基差-110元/吨（-37）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4860元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4900元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格595元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润14元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-252元/吨（-231）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-489元/吨（-10）；PVC出口利润8.8美元/吨（+1.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存33.7万吨（-0.8）；PVC社会库存48.1万吨（+3.3）；PVC电石法开工率77.83%（+3.41%）； PVC乙烯法开工率77.55%（+7.31%）；PVC开工率77.75%（+4.49%）。 PVC： 供应端，前期检修回归复产，氯碱利润支撑下整体开工环比大幅走高，叠加新投产能逐步量产，PVC产量预期继 续回升，供应端压力仍较大。需求端，下游制品开工延续低位，企业维持刚需采购；出口签单环比下降，出口端 受印度进口PV ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC market is weak with ample supply and sluggish demand, and the decline in social inventory has slowed down. The caustic soda market is also weak, with expected increased supply pressure and lack of positive drivers in the short term [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,844 yuan/ton (-52), the East China basis was -114 yuan/ton (+2), and the South China basis was -24 yuan/ton (+2) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (-50), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,820 yuan/ton (-50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit was -494 yuan/ton (+18), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit was -640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit was -11.4 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC was 40.2 million tons (+0.5), the social inventory of PVC was 35.5 million tons (+0.0), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 79.62% (-0.83%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall operation rate of PVC was 76.74% (-0.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.8 million tons (+1.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,274 yuan/ton (+2), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 164 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,446 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 783.3 yuan/ton (+39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 91.28 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 36.65 million tons (-3.88), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.85 million tons (+0.00), and the operation rate of caustic soda was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The operation rate of alumina was 80.74% (-0.13%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 60.73% (-0.63%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.80% (+0.24%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The easing of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the weak macro - sentiment have dragged down the PVC price. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The supply is abundant, the cost support is weak, the domestic demand is sluggish, and the export is increasing but has uncertainties [3] Caustic Soda - The operation rate of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is expected to intensify. The market transaction is weak, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has declined, and the demand side is also weak. The factory inventory is still at a high level [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish, pay attention to macro - export policies and the recovery of downstream demand [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral, the price has limited downward space in the short term, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali still has room to compress [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Both PVC and caustic soda are rated as neutral [11] Core Viewpoints PVC - Supply side: New device overhauls increased during the week, and the PVC operating rate decreased slightly. Supply reduction and stable export delivery led to continuous destocking of PVC social inventory. Future supply pressure may be alleviated. However, downstream demand is weak, and the cost - side support has weakened, with prices moving down. Export uncertainties remain, and the high absolute inventory still drags down prices [8] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Two new chlor - alkali enterprises carried out overhauls, and future overhauls are still numerous, so supply may be tightened. Demand side: Non - aluminum industries and downstream traders increased replenishment, leading to a significant decline in upstream inventory and a price rebound. But overall non - aluminum demand is weak, and the upward trend of prices is still under pressure [10] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - As of April 18, the average operating load rate of calcium carbide was 60.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58%. The overall operating load of PVC was 74.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08%. The loss due to parking and overhauls was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.40 tons from last week. Warehouse total inventory was 41.38 tons, a decrease of 0.85 tons from last week [3][4][5] Caustic Soda - As of April 18, the operating rate of caustic soda was 82.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.50%. The output was 79.20 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons from last week. The upstream inventory was 42.92 tons, a decrease of 5.31 tons from last week [6][7] Strategy - PVC: It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the implementation of overhauls and the recovery of downstream demand [11] - Caustic Soda: Although supply is expected to tighten slightly, the upward trend of prices is still under pressure. Pay attention to downstream procurement rhythm and the implementation of overhauls [11]