证券研究报告·公司点评报告·环境治理 洪城环境（600461） 2025 年中报点评：降本控费业绩稳健，资本 开支持续下降 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 8,048 | 8,227 | 8,501 | 8,621 | 8,749 | | 同比（%） | 3.43 | 2.22 | 3.34 | 1.41 | 1.48 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,083 | 1,190 | 1,251 | 1,307 | 1,363 | | 同比（%） | 12.59 | 9.89 | 5.11 | 4.48 | 4.31 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.84 | 0.93 | 0.97 | 1.02 | 1.06 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 10.83 | 9.85 | 9.37 | 8.97 | 8.60 | [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 08 月 2 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Yuehai Investment Company Overview - **Industry**: Water Supply Industry - **Core Business**: Supply of water to Hong Kong, contributing nearly 90% of profits [1][3][4] Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: The average annual increase in water supply prices to Hong Kong over the past decade is approximately 2.2%, significantly higher than many domestic cities [1][3] - **Valuation**: Current valuation is around 9 times earnings with a dividend yield of about 7%, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is below 1. The company is considered undervalued compared to overseas market valuations of 25-30 times [1][5] - **Dividend Policy**: Historically maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 65%, with expected dividends in 2025 likely to exceed 7% [1][6] Operational Focus - **Core Business Focus**: After divesting from Yuehai Land, the company will concentrate more on its water supply business, which is expected to enhance profitability [1][6] - **Debt Management**: The net financial debt to net asset value ratio is projected to decrease from 77% in 2023 to 31% in 2024, indicating improved financial health [1][9] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - **Free Cash Flow**: Expected to rise significantly to 7.3 billion HKD in 2024, a 29% year-on-year increase, with capital expenditures decreasing substantially [1][10] - **Cash Flow Stability**: The company has maintained a stable cash flow from its core operations, providing a solid foundation for high dividends [1][10] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - **Market Dynamics**: The water supply sector is characterized by stable performance due to the counter-cyclical nature of water demand and pricing reforms that link prices to costs [2][3] - **Core Asset Contribution**: The Dongjiang Water Project is a key asset, contributing significantly to overall profits, with a stable average water supply price of 6.11 HKD per ton in 2023 [3][11] Future Outlook - **Profit Recovery**: The company anticipates a recovery in net profit to over 4 billion HKD in 2025, primarily driven by its water resource business [1][7] - **Long-term Growth**: Expected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 4.274 billion, 4.357 billion, and 4.453 billion HKD respectively, indicating a strong recovery and stable growth trajectory [22] Investment Value - **Dividend Yield and Valuation Potential**: The company’s high dividend yield and undervaluation relative to its assets suggest significant investment potential, especially if market conditions favor high-dividend assets [5][25] - **Market Positioning**: The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing market reforms in water pricing, which could enhance profitability and cash flow [17][24] Additional Important Insights - **Debt Structure Improvement**: The company is gradually reducing its reliance on floating-rate loans and increasing its proportion of RMB loans to mitigate currency risk [1][9] - **Regulatory Environment**: The company has a favorable position regarding the renewal of its water supply contracts, which is expected to be negotiated with the provincial government [14] This comprehensive analysis highlights Yuehai Investment's strong market position, financial stability, and potential for future growth, making it a compelling investment opportunity in the water supply sector.