以下文章来源于快刀青衣 ，作者快刀青衣 快刀青衣 . 得到联合创始人，AI 学习圈主理人 产品经理出身，与罗胖脱不花创业十年 学习 AI， 使用 AI，只为解决问题 当时就有不少媒体猜测，他发警报的最终目的，其实是给这个新模型的宣传造势。但我们确实也能看 出，OpenAI在Gemini的强大攻势下，心态已经不像当初那么轻松了。 为什么这么说？从GPT-5.1到GPT-5.2，发布间隔只有30天。要知道，这可是OpenAI历史上迭代最快 的一次，以前这种级别的版本迭代，至少要一个季度才可以。 更关键的是，这次GPT-5.2主打的不是"通用智能""推理能力"这类高大上的概念，而是直截了当地 说：我们要强化"打工能力"。 什么是打工能力？就是你每天在办公室里干的活，比如做Excel表格、写PPT、改代码、回复客户邮 件。这次，OpenAI的很明确：先不谈理想和未来，先把大家手头的活干好再说。 一、30天迭代，为何这么急？ 从GPT-5.1到GPT-5.2仅用30天，你可能觉得，版本号才涨了0.1，能有多大变化？ 本文来自微信公众号： 快刀青衣 ，作者：快刀青衣，题图来自：AI生成 2015年12月11日，OpenA ...

用百万亿Token揭示今年AI发展趋势，硅谷的这份报告火了！ 无论是分析问题的角度，还是里面得出的一些结论，都被网友热烈讨论。 而且里面还公开肯定了中国开源模型，其每周Token用量占比一度高达30%。并且除了DeepSeek，编程领域的新秀MiniMax也被特意cue到。 这份报告由OpenRouter和a16z联合出品，标题为《State of AI：An Empirical 100 Trillion Token Study with OpenRouter》。 里面分析了自2024年11月至2025年11月，OpenRouter平台上300+模型的使用情况，涵盖GPT系列、Claude、Gemini、DeepSeek、Qwen、Kimi等国内外主 流开源与闭源模型。 而且统计的角度相当特别——不看各种基准得分，而是看模型的真实Token消耗量。 Token消耗量直接反映了模型被使用的方式和程度，因此比测试分数更能揭示其本质价值。 这一次，他们基于100万亿Token，在报告里得出了以下主要结论（省流版）： 预计到年底，开源模型的使用量将达到约1/3，与闭源模型形成互补而非零和博弈； 开源力量中，中国模型尤 ...

Core Insights - The report titled "State of AI: An Empirical 100 Trillion Token Study with OpenRouter" analyzes the usage of over 300 AI models on the OpenRouter platform from November 2024 to November 2025, focusing on real token consumption rather than benchmark scores [3][5][67] - It highlights the significant rise of open-source models, particularly from China, which saw weekly token usage share increase from 1.2% to 30%, indicating a shift towards a complementary relationship between open-source and closed-source models [2][10][74] - The report emphasizes the transition of AI models from language generation systems to reasoning and execution systems, with reasoning models becoming the new paradigm [18][83] Open-Source vs Closed-Source Models - Open-source models are no longer seen merely as alternatives to closed-source models; they have carved out unique positions and are often preferred in specific scenarios [6][70] - By the end of 2025, it is expected that open-source models will account for approximately one-third of total usage, reflecting a more integrated approach by developers who utilize both types of models [5][70] - The dominance of DeepSeek is diminishing as more open-source models enter the market, leading to a diversified landscape where no single model is expected to exceed 25% of token usage by the end of 2025 [13][77] Model Characteristics and Trends - The report identifies a shift towards medium-sized models, which are gaining market favor, while small models are losing traction [16][80] - The classification of models is as follows: large models (700 billion parameters or more), medium models (150 to 700 billion parameters), and small models (less than 150 billion parameters) [20][85] - The usage of reasoning tokens has surpassed 50%, indicating a significant evolution in how AI models are utilized for complex tasks [18][83] User Behavior and Model Utilization - AI model usage has evolved from simple tasks to more complex problem-solving, with user prompts increasing in length and complexity [27][92] - The concept of "crystal shoe effect" is introduced, where certain models lock in a core user base due to their unique capabilities, making it difficult for competitors to attract these users later [55][120] - Programming and role-playing have emerged as the primary use cases for AI models, with programming queries rising from 11% to over 50% [27][100] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the paid usage share of AI in Asia has doubled from 13% to 31%, while North America's share has fallen below 50% [129] - English remains the dominant language in AI usage at 82%, with Simplified Chinese holding nearly 5% [129] - The impact of model pricing on usage is less significant than anticipated, with a 10% price drop leading to only a 0.5%-0.7% increase in usage [129]

Core Insights - The report titled "State of AI: An Empirical 100 Trillion Token Study with OpenRouter" analyzes the usage of over 300 models on the OpenRouter platform from November 2024 to November 2025, focusing on real token consumption rather than benchmark scores [3][6][8]. Group 1: Open Source vs. Closed Source Models - Open source models (OSS) have evolved from being seen as alternatives to closed source models to finding their unique positioning, becoming the preferred choice in specific scenarios [9]. - The relationship between open source and closed source models is now more complementary, with developers often using both types simultaneously [10]. - The usage of open source models is expected to reach approximately one-third by the end of 2025, with Chinese models experiencing significant growth from 1.2% to 30% in weekly usage share [12][13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Model Diversity - The dominance of DeepSeek as the largest contributor to open source model usage is diminishing as more models enter the market, leading to a diversified landscape [16]. - By the end of 2025, no single model is expected to maintain over 25% of token usage, with the market likely to be shared among 5 to 7 models [17][18]. - The report indicates a shift towards medium-sized models, which are gaining market favor, while small models are losing traction [20][21]. Group 3: Evolution of Model Functionality - Language models are transitioning from dialogue systems to reasoning and execution systems, with reasoning token usage surpassing 50% [22]. - The use of model invocation tools is increasing, indicating a more competitive and diverse ecosystem [29][31]. - AI models are evolving into "intelligent agents" capable of independently completing tasks rather than just responding to queries [43]. Group 4: Usage Patterns and User Retention - The complexity of tasks assigned to AI has increased, with users now requiring models to analyze extensive documents or codebases [35]. - The average input to models has quadrupled, reflecting a growing reliance on contextual information [36]. - The "glass slipper effect" describes how certain users become highly attached to models that perfectly meet their needs upon release, leading to high retention rates [67][70]. Group 5: Regional Insights and Market Trends - The share of paid usage in Asia has doubled from 13% to 31%, indicating a shift in the global AI landscape [71]. - North America's AI market share has declined to below 50%, while English remains dominant at 82%, with Simplified Chinese holding nearly 5% [80]. - The impact of model pricing on usage is less significant than expected, with a 10% price drop resulting in only a 0.5%-0.7% increase in usage [80].