上 市 公 司 公用事业 2025 年 10 月 31 日 长江电力 (600900) ——来水短暂影响发电量 秋汛保障今冬明春发电能力 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 10 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 28.10 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 31.19/26.78 | | 市净率 | 3.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.36 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 674,604 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,954.79/13,378.21 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 10-31 11-30 12-31 01-31 02-28 03-31 04-30 05-31 06-30 07-31 08-31 09-30 10-31 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 长江电力 沪深300指数 (收益率) 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company's hydropower generation in the third quarter reached 42.188 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.67%. Excluding the newly commissioned Tobar and Hard Beam Power Stations, the original hydropower generation still reached 38.272 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.35%. In addition to the growth in hydropower generation, the company's renewable energy projects also maintained rapid growth, with photovoltaic power generation reaching 1.295 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 58.70%. However, due to weak wind conditions, the generation from Xiangyun Wind Power was only 0.031 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 35.42%. Overall, despite some pressure from market electricity prices, the company's third-quarter performance outlook remains positive due to the year-on-year growth in electricity generation and continuous optimization of financial costs [2][13] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company completed a total electricity generation of 96.266 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 11.90%, with grid electricity reaching 95.490 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 12.02% [6] Hydropower and Renewable Energy Growth - The company benefited from abundant water supply in the Lancang River basin, with water supply in the first three quarters being 0.9 times higher year-on-year. The overall hydropower generation for the first three quarters was 96.266 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 11.90% [13] - The company is expanding its hydropower capacity with the construction of the RM Power Station, which is expected to significantly enhance the overall efficiency of the hydropower stations in the upper reaches of the Lancang River [13] Financial Projections - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.49 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.55 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19.87 times, 18.53 times, and 17.88 times respectively [13][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 36.698 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.056 billion yuan, up 14.86% year-on-year, which is in line with expectations [7] - The controlling shareholder, China Three Gorges Corporation, plans to increase its stake in the company through the secondary market within the next 12 months, with an investment amount between 4 billion and 8 billion yuan, indicating confidence in the company's long-term development [7] - The company has a strong dividend policy, having committed to a cash dividend of no less than 0.65 yuan per share from 2016 to 2020, and maintaining a payout ratio of no less than 70% of net profit from 2021 to 2025, with dividends consistently exceeding these commitments [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 89.766 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 35.561 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 9.4% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.45 yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 60.1% [6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 16.0% in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 [6]