汇率波动率
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毛里塔尼亚经济与发展部长预测2025年通胀率低于2%
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-12-19 04:41
毛里塔尼亚经济与发展部长西迪亚致辞表示,得益于宏观经济政策的实施以及中央银行持续吸收过剩流 动性,预测2025年毛通胀率将低于2%。西迪亚强调,专家已肯定毛经济韧性,2024年毛经济增长表现 强劲,增速达6.3%,中期经济前景总体乐观,通过推动经济多样化、提高非采掘业增长所采取的相关 措施,毛经济状况得以改善。尽管全球不确定性持续存在且地缘政治紧张局势加剧,中东、北非及撒哈 拉以南非洲的经济体仍展现出显著韧性。西迪亚还对毛逐步实施的改革予以赞扬,旨在构建强大、多元 化、包容且可持续的经济基础。 毛里塔尼亚中央银行行长达希比介绍了外汇系统演变,强调乌吉亚汇率通过银行间竞争性平台由供需自 动确定,提升了市场透明度与货币政策有效性。此外,2024-2025年汇率波动率稳定在1.6%,外汇储备 接近20亿美元,彰显2023年底以来货币方针的成效。 2025年12月18日,毛里塔尼亚《消息报》报道,毛里塔尼亚中央银行与国际货币基金组织(IMF)举办"区 域经济展望"高级别研讨会,并介绍IMF关于中东和北非地区的年度报告。 ...
汇率:中间价释放升值信号、资金押注补涨
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-28 15:26
Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB central parity rate has shown a gradual appreciation since July, with the rate breaking 7.14, indicating a strong upward signal[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate has fluctuated around 7.17, reflecting a "strong central rate, weak spot rate" dynamic[7] - The central parity rate has increased by 0.23% since July 1, 2025, reaching a low of 7.1385, the lowest since November 2024[7] Cross-Border Capital Flows - In the first half of 2025, the net inflow of foreign exchange was $30.89 billion, with a trade surplus of $43.57 billion from January to June[24] - The average active settlement rate for export enterprises was 47.13% in the first half of 2025, down from 48.37% in the same period of 2024[26] - The forward settlement scale increased by $44.33 billion from April to June 2025, indicating expectations of RMB appreciation[28] Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds reached a net increase of $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, reversing a two-year trend of net selling[34] - The net inflow from securities investment projects was $18.06 billion in the first half of 2025, with a surplus of $7.736 billion in June alone[38] Risk Factors - Potential risks include fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, unclear Federal Reserve interest rate paths, and the impact of non-U.S. currency movements on the RMB[40] - The average holding cost of the "waiting for settlement" funds is approximately 7.05, with a total scale of about $400 billion as of June 2025[32]