Workflow
汽油需求
icon
Search documents
东吴期货EIA周度数据报告-20250807
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 12:56
Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the EIA weekly data of the US oil market as of August 1, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Main Data Highlights - US commercial crude oil inventory was 423.662 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.029 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 600,000 barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 453,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 235,000 barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 400,000 barrels. Distillate inventory decreased by 565,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 800,000 barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day. Net imports decreased by 794,000 barrels per day to 2.644 million barrels per day, and processing volume increased by 213,000 barrels per day to 17.124 million barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed US crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 185,250 barrels per day to 20.61575 million barrels per day. Gasoline apparent demand decreased by 29,750 barrels per day to 8.912 million barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 55,000 barrels per day to 1.77675 million barrels per day. Distillate apparent demand increased by 13,000 barrels per day to 3.52275 million barrels per day [3] Group 3: Report Analysis - Last week, US commercial crude oil inventory declined more than expected. Refinery operating rate reached a new high of 96.9% this year, up 1.5%, driving an increase in crude oil processing volume. However, the processing volume was not a new high due to the decrease in refinery capacity from 18.347 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 18.089 million barrels per day. Export growth also contributed to the inventory decline [4] - Gasoline demand remained persistently low, with the four - week smoothed data below 9 million barrels per day for four consecutive weeks during the peak season. Compared with previous years, this year's gasoline demand was only better than that in 2020 and 2022, indicating that Americans are more inclined to short - distance travel and cut travel budgets. Distillate demand was stable, and the slight inventory decline was mainly due to increased exports [6] - This week's EIA report seemed bullish as crude oil and major refined product inventories declined. However, the gasoline apparent demand below 9 million barrels per day during the peak season weakened the positive impact. Overall, the US gasoline consumption market this year was disappointing compared with previous years at similar price levels. After the data release, oil prices were initially stable and then declined due to news of potential US - Russia - third - country leader talks [8]
EIA周度数据报告-20250807
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 09:11
Report Overview - The report is an EIA weekly data report released on August 7, 2025, focusing on the oil market in the United States [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The gasoline demand remains persistently low during the peak season, and the US gasoline consumption market this year is disappointing compared to previous years [1][6][8] - The EIA report seems bullish on the surface as both crude oil and major refined oil inventories have declined, but the weak gasoline demand undermines the positive impact [8] 3. Summary by Key Data Crude Oil Inventory - As of August 1, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 423.662 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.029 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 600,000 barrels. The Cushing inventory increased by 453,000 barrels, and the strategic reserve inventory increased by 235,000 barrels [2][3] Refined Oil Inventory - Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 400,000 barrels. Distillate oil inventory decreased by 565,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 800,000 barrels [2] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day. Net imports decreased by 794,000 barrels per day to 2.644 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume increased by 213,000 barrels per day to 17.124 million barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed US crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 185,250 barrels per day to 20.61575 million barrels per day. Gasoline apparent demand decreased by 29,750 barrels per day to 8.912 million barrels per day. Jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 55,000 barrels per day to 1.77675 million barrels per day. Distillate oil apparent demand increased by 13,000 barrels per day to 3.52275 million barrels per day [3] 4. Report Comments Crude Oil - Last week, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. The refinery utilization rate reached a new high this year, rising 1.5% to 96.9%, driving an increase in crude oil processing volume. However, the processing volume is not a new high due to the decrease in refinery capacity. In addition, increased exports also contributed to the inventory decline [4] Refined Oil - Gasoline demand is continuously weak, with the four - week smoothed data below 9 million barrels per day for four consecutive weeks during the peak season. This indicates that Americans are more inclined to short - distance travel and cut travel budgets this year. Distillate oil demand is stable, and the slight decrease in inventory is mainly due to increased exports [6] 5. Market Reaction - After the data release, oil prices remained stable initially and then declined as Trump announced productive US - Russia talks and the possibility of a face - to - face meeting among the three leaders as early as next week, leading to a retreat in risk premiums [8]
EIA周度报告点评-20250807
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 05:09
主要数据一览: 截止8月1日,美国商业原油总库存为42366.2万桶,环比下降302.9万桶,超过预期的减少60万桶,交割地库欣库存增加45.3万桶。战略储备库存 增加23.5万桶。 EIA周度数据报告 2025-08-07 09:52:10 摘要:汽油需求在旺季中持续性低迷 EIA周良 脂点评 成品油方面,汽油库存减少132.3万桶,超过预期的减少40万桶,馏分油库存减少56.5万桶,与预期的增加80万桶相反。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 7月25日 | 8月1日 | 变化 | 近三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 426691 | 423662 | -3029 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 22553 | 23006 | 453 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 402741 | 402976 | ટર્ક | | | 美国汽油库存 | 228405 | 227082 | -1323 - | | | 美国馏分油库存 | 113536 | 112971 | -262 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1660512 | 1662801 | ...
EIA周度报告点评-20250710
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 07:47
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report is relatively positive. Although the most important commercial crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased significantly, there was a one - time adjustment factor from EIA. The gasoline apparent consumption during the driving peak season remains strong, and the distillate oil inventory is continuously decreasing, which is expected to support refineries to maintain high operating rates and drive crude oil demand. After the report was released, oil prices rebounded slightly but then narrowed the gains, with little overall change [7] Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data Overview - As of July 4, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 426.021 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 7.07 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.1 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 464,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 238,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.658 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.5 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 825,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 300,000 barrels [2] - From June 27 to July 4, US crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day to 13.385 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 1.358 million barrels per day to 3.256 million barrels per day; processing volume decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.006 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for US crude oil increased by 275,250 barrels per day to 20.5635 million barrels per day [3] Report Review - Last week, the significant increase in US commercial crude oil inventory was not related to imports, exports, or the operating rate. The refinery operating rate dropped slightly by 0.2% to 94.7%, still at a high level in the same period, and net imports decreased significantly. The large inventory increase was mainly due to a data adjustment of 1.8 million barrels per day to reflect "unaccounted - for crude oil", which can be considered a one - time event [4] Product Oil Situation - Gasoline demand remained at a high level, causing gasoline inventory to decline more than expected despite the high refinery operating rate. Since the data was as of July 4 (US Independence Day, Friday), and the Independence Day long weekend is often the peak of the US driving season, the strong gasoline demand is likely to continue in next week's report. Distillate oil inventory is also significantly lower than in previous years, and the low inventory is conducive to supporting cracking and helping refineries maintain high operating rates [6]
EIA周度报告点评-20250626
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 05:25
Group 1: Report Summary - The EIA weekly data report shows that inventories decreased across the board, and the apparent demand for gasoline strengthened [1] Group 2: Key Data - As of June 20, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 415.106 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 5.836 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 800,000 barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 464,000 barrels, while strategic reserve inventories increased by 237,000 barrels [2] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.075 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 400,000 barrels. Distillate inventories decreased by 4.066 million barrels, also contrary to the expected increase of 400,000 barrels [2] Group 3: Data Changes - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.836 million barrels from June 13 to June 20 [3] - U.S. strategic reserve inventories increased by 237,000 barrels during the same period [3] - U.S. gasoline inventories decreased by 2.075 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.066 million barrels [3] - U.S. crude oil production increased by 4,000 barrels per day, and net imports increased by 531,000 barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume increased by 125,000 barrels per day [3] - The four-week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased by 67,750 barrels per day, and gasoline apparent demand increased by 59,000 barrels per day [3] Group 4: Report Analysis - Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell below the five-year seasonal low for the second consecutive week. Strong refinery demand and low net imports contributed to the decline [4] - The EIA report is relatively positive. Both surface and internal data are strong, with significant inventory decreases and improving demand [6] - Gasoline demand has recovered, leading to an unexpected decline in gasoline inventories despite high refinery utilization. Gasoline inventories are generally neutral [9] - Distillate demand has improved marginally but remains relatively low compared to the same period in previous years [9]
EIA周度报告点评-20250515
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 06:57
Report Summary - **Report Title**: EIA Weekly Data Report - **Report Date**: May 15, 2025 - **Report Author**: Xiao Huo (Z0016296) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Report's Core View - The EIA report for this week is relatively bearish, with the four - week smoothed weekly export data at a 4 - month low and 6 - month second - lowest, indicating a gradual weakening of global crude oil demand. Although falling oil prices have boosted US domestic gasoline demand before the driving peak season, overall demand remains mediocre, and the total inventory of the crude oil chain has increased more than the crude oil inventory, meaning refined products are still accumulating inventory [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Main Data Overview - As of May 9, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 441.83 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.454 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.1 million barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 1.069 million barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.528 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.022 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.56 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 3.155 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 0.13 million barrels [2] 2. Data Changes from May 2 to May 9 - US commercial crude oil inventory increased from 438.376 million barrels to 441.83 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory decreased from 24.961 million barrels to 23.892 million barrels; US strategic reserve inventory increased from 399.122 million barrels to 398.62 million barrels; US gasoline inventory decreased from 225.728 million barrels to 224.706 million barrels; US distillate inventory decreased from 106.708 million barrels to 103.553 million barrels; US crude oil chain total inventory increased from 1.612398 billion barrels to 1.617795 billion barrels; US crude oil production increased from 13.367 million barrels per day to 13.387 million barrels per day; US crude oil net imports increased from 2.05 million barrels per day to 2.472 million barrels per day; US crude oil processing volume increased from 16.071 million barrels per day to 16.401 million barrels per day; US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 19.756 million barrels per day to 19.8355 million barrels per day; US gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 8.92275 million barrels per day to 9.00575 million barrels per day; US distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 3.708 million barrels per day to 3.68775 million barrels per day; US jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 1.85725 million barrels per day to 1.755 million barrels per day [3] 3. Analysis of Crude Oil Inventory Increase - The unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventory last week was mainly due to the decline in export volume. The four - week smoothed export volume dropped to the lowest level since early January, suggesting a weakening of overseas demand. The weekly refinery utilization rate has increased for the fourth consecutive week, rising by 1.2% to 90.2%, breaking through the 90% mark, indicating that this year's slightly longer maintenance season may be gradually ending. US crude oil production has recently declined, mainly affected by falling oil prices. The Dallas Fed's energy survey report for the first quarter of this year shows that the average new well operating cost of US shale oil companies is WTI $65 per barrel [4] 4. Analysis of Product Oil Situation - In terms of refined oil, the apparent demand for gasoline has been continuously strengthening, perhaps boosted by the recent falling prices, resulting in an unexpected decline in gasoline inventory. Diesel inventory has also decreased significantly [6] 5. Impact on Oil Prices - After the release of this week's data, oil prices fluctuated downward. This morning, Iran's inner circle made its first concession on nuclear weapons, causing oil prices to fall further [8]