沃什时刻
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国泰海通:“沃什时刻”是贵金属为代表的市场大幅调整的导火索,而非根本原因
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-02 14:39
来源:滚动播报 国泰海通研报指出,上周全球焦点在美联储,其行为表现为一"不动"和一"动","不动"之处在于FOMC 暂停降息,但是表态略微偏鹰,资产价格开始调整,其后一"动"在于美联储新主席落地,"沃什时刻"导 致贵金属为代表的市场大幅调整,但其只是短期市场过度炒作后调整的导火索,而非根本原因,黄金等 价格调整后或仍有支撑。 ...
国泰海通|宏观:“沃什时刻”是导火索,而非根本原因
国泰海通证券研究· 2026-02-02 14:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, highlighting a pause in interest rate cuts while indicating a slightly hawkish stance, which has led to adjustments in asset prices. The appointment of Kevin Walsh as the new Fed Chair is seen as a catalyst for market adjustments, particularly in precious metals, but the article suggests this is a short-term reaction rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to pause interest rate cuts during its meeting on January 28, 2026, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on the economy, employment, and inflation, which increases uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [2][3]. - The dollar index began to rise, while U.S. stock markets experienced fluctuations, with precious metals initially rising but later facing corrections due to the Fed's hawkish signals [2][3]. Group 2: Kevin Walsh's Appointment - Kevin Walsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair was unexpected in terms of timing and his policy stance, which emphasizes Fed independence and a pragmatic approach to monetary policy, advocating for both rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [2][3]. - The market does not expect Walsh's policy proposals to be implemented in the short term, as there are constraints related to dollar liquidity and employment pressures, despite the Fed's potential for technical balance sheet expansion starting December 2025 [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Walsh's appointment, there was significant volatility in commodity markets, particularly in precious metals, which the article attributes to a rapid prior increase in prices rather than a fundamental change in market conditions [3]. - The article notes that while Walsh's appointment has some catalytic effects on market dynamics, it does not signify a fundamental shift in Fed policy direction, suggesting that precious metal prices may find support after short-term technical adjustments [3]. Group 4: Global Asset Performance - During the week of January 26 to February 1, 2026, global asset prices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.38% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.34%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [4]. - Commodity prices were also mixed, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 6.65% and the London gold price declining by 2.03% [4].