1. Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 15, 2026 [2] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 3. Core View - The asphalt market is relatively balanced in terms of supply and demand. The center of the market will rise compared to before the Venezuelan event. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the raw material end. [6] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The opening price of BU2603 was 3168 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3168 yuan/ton, the highest was 3190 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3151 yuan/ton, the increase was 1.38%, and the trading volume was 19.91 million lots. The opening price of BU2604 was 3159 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3172 yuan/ton, the highest was 3193 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3152 yuan/ton, the increase was 1.47%, and the trading volume was 2.31 million lots. [6] - Spot Market: The spot prices of asphalt in North China and Shandong increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The continuous rise in crude oil prices supported the atmosphere of the asphalt spot market. [6] - Supply: Venezuelan oil resources are prioritized for the US market, which supports the domestic asphalt supply. Qilu Petrochemical and Jinling Petrochemical plan to resume asphalt production on the weekend, but Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical will switch to producing residual oil, and Maoming Petrochemical has no plan to resume production. It is expected that the operating load rate of asphalt plants will continue to decline. [6] - Demand: The rigid demand for asphalt in the South will remain relatively stable. The construction season in the North has basically ended, and the rigid demand is coming to an end. The waterproofing demand remains stable. Affected by the oil price and sentiment, the speculative demand is expected to weaken. [6] 4.2 Industry News - East China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3180 - 3230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. The increase in international oil prices and asphalt futures supported the asphalt price in terms of cost and market sentiment, but the market demand remained weak and stable, and the spot supply was relatively abundant, so the price lacked the driving force for an increase. [7] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3130 - 3250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. The rigid demand for asphalt in Hunan and Guangxi was relatively stable, but the rigid demand in some areas of Guangdong declined slightly, and the shipment volume of some warehouses decreased. However, there were no low - price ship cargo resources available for warehousing, and the quotations of traders remained stable. [7] 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts. [10][14][17][22]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][3] Group 2: Core Views - The investment view on asphalt is that it will fluctuate, with high supply and declining demand, and the overall trend will continue to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [3] - The trading strategy suggests a single - sided approach with a fluctuating outlook and no arbitrage opportunities [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.25 million tons, a 18% month - on - month decrease and a 3% year - on - year decrease. Different production entities showed different trends. This week, the asphalt supply contracted due to device shutdowns and conversions, and the supply - demand structure improved [3] - **Demand**: This week, the overall asphalt demand weakened. Although the shipment volume in Shandong increased, the overall demand was still declining. As some terminal projects ended, the demand further weakened, and the weak demand was a significant negative factor for prices [3] - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic asphalt inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. The inventory is expected to continue to decline next week, and the supply - demand pattern will further improve [3] - **Cost**: This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated. Geopolitical factors first pushed up oil prices, and then the news of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a partial decline in oil prices. The price fluctuated with limited upward momentum [3] 2. Price - The report presents historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 - 2025 [5][8] 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and asphalt - coking material spread from 2021 - 2025 [12][13] - **Basis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt basis in regions such as South China, East China, and Shandong from 2024 - 2025 [14] 4. Supply - **Production Forecast**: It shows the monthly production and production forecast of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in regions such as North China and South China from 2021 - 2025 [17][21] - **Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of capacity utilization of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 - 2025 [29][33] - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 - 2025 [40] 5. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt production gross margin in Shandong from 2021 - 2025 [43][44] - **Diluted Asphalt**: It shows the price, premium, and port inventory trends of diluted asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [47][48] 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate in regions such as China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 - 2025 [52][55] - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory in regions such as China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 - 2025 [58] 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt shipment volume in regions such as China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 - 2025 [61] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the historical trends of operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, waterproofing membranes, and modified asphalt in different regions from 2018 - 2025 [63][70]

Group 1 - The asphalt market is currently facing a stalemate, with prices fluctuating between 3500 to 3620 yuan/ton, and a lack of significant upward or downward movement due to high valuations and weak demand expectations [1][2] - The supply-demand balance is weakly maintained, with low inventory rates below 0.2 providing support for prices, while seasonal demand shows mild improvement [2][3] - The northern resource supply remains tight, but the southern market is experiencing lower prices, disrupting the traditional pricing dominance of northern regions [3] Group 2 - The market is characterized by strong support but weak driving forces, leading to limited operational space for asphalt trading [3] - The overall fundamentals of the asphalt market are resilient, but there are structural regional contradictions that need to be addressed [3] - The expectation for inventory accumulation in 2025 is weak, and the market is not expected to see significant accumulation in the second quarter [2]