投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【沥青（BU）】 供需双减，山东地区价格趋稳 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 沥青：供需双减，山东地区价格趋稳 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）11月地炼排产降低：四大生产主体表现分化，11 月排产受季节、装置检修等因素影响呈现环比下滑态势。11 月国内沥青总排产计划 225 万吨，环 | | | | | | | 比减少 18%），同比减少 7 万吨（降幅 3%），整体供应收缩。中石油：排产 41 万吨，环比减 14 万吨、同比增 | 48 万吨（降幅 | | 8 万吨。北方气温走低导 | | | | 致需求下滑，克石化、辽河石化等降产，叠加中油秦皇岛停产，拖累环比产量。中石化：排产 35 万吨，环比减 8 万吨、同 ...

Group 1 - The asphalt market is currently facing a stalemate, with prices fluctuating between 3500 to 3620 yuan/ton, and a lack of significant upward or downward movement due to high valuations and weak demand expectations [1][2] - The supply-demand balance is weakly maintained, with low inventory rates below 0.2 providing support for prices, while seasonal demand shows mild improvement [2][3] - The northern resource supply remains tight, but the southern market is experiencing lower prices, disrupting the traditional pricing dominance of northern regions [3] Group 2 - The market is characterized by strong support but weak driving forces, leading to limited operational space for asphalt trading [3] - The overall fundamentals of the asphalt market are resilient, but there are structural regional contradictions that need to be addressed [3] - The expectation for inventory accumulation in 2025 is weak, and the market is not expected to see significant accumulation in the second quarter [2]