1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term: The report believes that it is highly likely for asphalt valuation to decline in the second half of the year. The current operation rate of independent refineries is at a low level, with limited room for further decline. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will restrict the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak shock of crude oil at the cost end will also limit the upward space of asphalt's single - side price [16]. - Short - term: The weakness of asphalt has been gradually realized, and the supply - demand contradiction is relatively small in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report presents the recent trend chart of the asphalt main contract, and analyzes the influence of supply - demand and cost factors on the price [13][14]. - **Mid - term Impact Factor Assessment**: - **Supply**: Import is expected to remain low. Major refineries are expected to resume a certain operating rate, which will restrict the upward movement of asphalt valuation. However, for the valuation to decline, local refineries need to significantly recover, and they are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium term [16]. - **Demand**: The demand - side operation rate has improved slightly compared with previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected. The infrastructure peak season has passed, and the overall demand is expected to be flat [16]. - **Cost**: The upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. With the gradual increase in production by OPEC, the wide - range shock center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Shale oil will play a bottom - supporting role, and it is difficult to have a continuous trend market [16]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: - **Supply**: The operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt has started to decline, and imports are expected to remain low due to geopolitical factors in peripheral heavy - oil countries [17]. - **Demand**: The operation rates of all demand - side segments remain weak, and the weakness of waterproofing membranes exceeds expectations [17]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory shows a phenomenon of weak destocking, and social inventory fails to meet the destocking expectation. The domestic total inventory accumulates more than expected [17]. - **Cost**: The crude oil cost is expected to stop falling and stabilize, as the current oil price has entered the break - even price of some shale oil production areas in the United States. The oil price is suppressed by political expectations but supported by fundamentals [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [20][23][24][26]. - **Basis Trend**: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [31]. - **Term Structure**: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts [34][35]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [41]. - **Import**: It presents the import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume from different countries of asphalt, as well as the import volume of diluted asphalt [48][50][55]. - **Valuation Ratio**: It shows the valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [59]. - **Refinery Profit**: It shows the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the operation rate and production profit of petroleum coke [61][64][65]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of domestic factories, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [69]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the quantity of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract [73]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [81]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: It shows the operation rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [90]. - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly value of public fiscal expenditure on transportation [97]. - **Road - related Machinery**: It shows the monthly sales volumes of road rollers and excavators, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment [108]. - **Related Consumption**: It shows the completion amount of fixed - asset investment and the cumulative issuance amount of special local government bonds [114]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [120]. 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It briefly describes the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain [129]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: It classifies asphalt from the perspectives of production process and usage, and points out its main applications [133].

06 相关指标 估值弱势即将结束 沥青月报 2025/10/10 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 资料来源：SHFE、五矿期货研究中心 中期方向评估&定性 03 供应端 07 产业链结构图 04 库存 01 月度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：沥青主力合约近月走势（￥/吨） 3,000.0 3,100.0 3,200.0 3,300.0 3,400.0 3,500.0 3,600.0 3,700.0 3,800.0 3,900.0 4,000.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term asphalt valuation is expected to be neutral to weak due to mediocre fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the possible unilateral crude oil market caused by tariff policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [4][5] - In terms of strategies, consider partial profit - taking for reverse spreads in the inter - period and for short - cracking in the inter - variety [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 28.8%, a 4.0% week - on - week decrease. The average weekly domestic asphalt processing profit was - 524 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. Next week, there is an expected slight increase in supply in some areas [4] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers purchase low - price asphalt as needed. The brand competition in the north and south markets has intensified, and prices in some provinces are under pressure. In Shandong, continuous rainfall has hindered terminal demand, while in East China, some terminal projects are under concentrated construction, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt has increased by 0.2% to 15.8% [4] - **Valuation**: During the week, BU fluctuated with crude oil. The average weekly domestic asphalt price was 3784 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The price fluctuation range was 3764 - 3794 yuan/ton, and the range expanded. Prices rose in 2 regions, fell in 4 regions, and remained stable in 1 region [5] 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by various factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different advantages, such as no need for crude oil quotas and exemption from consumption tax [8] - **Futures**: Data on futures prices, trading volume, and open interest are presented, including the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC [12] - **Spot**: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are shown, along with the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [13] - **Spread**: The basis and month - to - month spreads in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta are presented [17][20] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - **Consumption Distribution**: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact [23] - **Downstream Shipment**: From July 16 - 22, 2025, the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.5 tons, a 0.2% week - on - week increase. The capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises was 14.5%, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease and a 2.5% year - on - year increase [28] 3.3.2 Supply - **Supply Pattern**: Domestic asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports (from countries like South Korea and Singapore). Key indicators include inventory, production profit, and maintenance plans [29] - **Output, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: From July 18 - 24, 2025, the domestic weekly asphalt output was 51.7 tons, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease and a 12.1% year - on - year increase. As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries decreased by 4.0%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 0.1% [32] - **开工率 (Operating Rate)**: Data on the weekly operating rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [34][36][38] - **Inventory**: Data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [46]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Considering the current mediocre fundamental performance, the short - term valuation of asphalt is expected to have no outstanding performance and may remain neutral to weak. Attention should be paid to the possible unilateral crude oil market brought by tariff policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [5]. - The shipment of asphalt is slow, and the valuation continues to be weak. The supply has decreased, and the downstream demands asphalt at low prices. The brand competition in the north - south market has intensified, and the prices in some provinces are under pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises is 28.8%, a 4.0% decrease from the previous week. The domestic asphalt processing profit has slightly increased, with a weekly average of - 524 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the previous week. The supply in Shandong and East China has decreased, but there is an expected slight increase in Shandong next week [4]. - **Demand**: Downstream customers purchase low - priced asphalt as needed. The brand competition in the north - south market has intensified, and prices in some provinces are under pressure. Rain in Shandong has hindered terminal demand, while some terminal projects in East China are under concentrated construction, increasing the demand for 70 and modified asphalt [4]. - **Valuation**: During the week, BU fluctuated with crude oil. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt was 3784 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan increase from the previous period. The price fluctuation range was 3764 - 3794 yuan/ton, with an expanded range. Four regions saw price drops, two regions had price increases, and one region remained stable [5]. - **Strategy**: For cross - period trading, consider partial profit - taking on reverse spreads; for cross - variety trading, consider partial profit - taking on short crack spreads [5]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is related to various crude oils such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different crude oils have different advantages in terms of raw material supply, such as no need for crude oil quotas and exemption from consumption tax [8]. - **Futures and Spot**: The report presents data on futures prices, trading volume, and positions, as well as spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt and Ma Rui crude oil, and price differences between regions [12][13]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report shows the basis and calendar spread data of asphalt over the years [17][19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Demand** - **Consumption Distribution**: The demand for asphalt is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproofing market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. The road market is affected by policies, project progress, and investment [23]. - **Downstream Shipment**: From July 16 - 22, 2025, the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.5 tons, a 0.2% increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 14.5%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week and a 2.5% increase from the same period last year [28]. - **Supply** - **Supply Pattern**: The supply of asphalt comes from domestic refineries and imports. Domestic refineries include state - owned and local refineries, and imports mainly come from South Korea and Singapore. Key supply indicators include inventory, production, profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [29]. - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: From July 18 - 24, 2025, the weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 51.7 tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week and a 12.1% increase from the same period last year. As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 72.3 tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 21, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses was 185.7 tons, a 0.1% decrease from July 21 [32]. - **Start - up**: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of asphalt refineries in different regions over the years [35]. - **Inventory**: The report presents the inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the total asphalt market inventory rates in different regions over the years [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - allocation view on the asphalt valuation ratio [15]. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the crude oil cost side has returned to normal. As the small off - season in August approaches, the cost support for asphalt is expected to weaken, and the valuation ratio is expected to remain volatile. However, with the approaching hurricane season in the US in September, the asphalt profit is expected to be gradually compressed by unexpected device impacts on the crude oil cost side, thus lowering the valuation. Meanwhile, the asphalt's own operating rate is in a seasonal upward period, and the supply will be further relaxed. The domestic "anti - involution" macro - orientation is not expected to cause a large - scale supply disruption for asphalt, so the short - allocation view on the asphalt valuation ratio is maintained [15]. - In the medium - term, the import of asphalt is expected to remain low. The main refineries are expected to resume a certain level of operation, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation. The demand side has slightly improved compared with previous years, but the overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure seasonal peak. The upward space for oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the widening volatility center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Overall, the asphalt valuation is likely to decline in the second half of the year [16]. - In the short - term, the supply side shows a neutral situation, the demand side is bearish, the inventory side is slightly bearish, and the cost side is slightly bearish. The "anti - involution" macro - orientation will not cause a large - scale supply disruption for asphalt, and the increase in cracking profit will stimulate refinery production and lower the asphalt valuation [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The current crude oil cost side has returned to normal, and the cost support for asphalt is expected to weaken as the August small off - season approaches. The asphalt operating rate is in a seasonal upward period, and the supply will be more abundant [15]. - **Medium - term Impact Factors and Evaluation**: Import is expected to remain low. The main refineries are expected to resume operation, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation. The demand side has slightly improved, but overall demand is expected to be flat. Oil prices are expected to have limited upward space in the second half of the year, and the asphalt valuation is likely to decline [16]. - **Short - term Factor Evaluation**: Supply is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is slightly bearish, and cost is slightly bearish. The "anti - involution" macro - orientation will not cause a large - scale supply disruption, and refinery production will be stimulated to lower the asphalt valuation [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report presents the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, East China, and North China regions [20][23][24][26]. - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [29][30]. - **Term Structure**: The report presents the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts [32][33][34]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt [42][43]. - **Import**: The report presents the import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, as well as the import profit from different regions [45][47][49]. - **Valuation Ratio**: The report shows the valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [57][58]. - **Refinery Profit**: The report presents the refining profits of main refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the operating rate and production profit of petroleum coke [60][61][63][64]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: The report shows the domestic total inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [68][69][71][73]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main contract [76][77]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: The report shows the relationships between inventory, profit, and price [79][80]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: The report presents the asphalt shipment volumes of sample enterprises in East China, North China, and other regions [85][86][88]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The report shows the operating rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [92][93][97]. - **Highway Investment**: The report presents the cumulative highway construction investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly values of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [99][100]. - **Road - Related Machinery**: The report presents the monthly sales of road rollers and excavators, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the cumulative highway construction investment [103][104]. - **Related Consumption**: The report presents the fixed - asset investment completion rate and the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds [106]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: The report presents the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [109][111][112]. 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: The report shows the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain [119][120]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: The report shows the classification of asphalt from the production process and usage perspectives, and its main applications [121][123].

Group 1 - The asphalt market is currently facing a stalemate, with prices fluctuating between 3500 to 3620 yuan/ton, and a lack of significant upward or downward movement due to high valuations and weak demand expectations [1][2] - The supply-demand balance is weakly maintained, with low inventory rates below 0.2 providing support for prices, while seasonal demand shows mild improvement [2][3] - The northern resource supply remains tight, but the southern market is experiencing lower prices, disrupting the traditional pricing dominance of northern regions [3] Group 2 - The market is characterized by strong support but weak driving forces, leading to limited operational space for asphalt trading [3] - The overall fundamentals of the asphalt market are resilient, but there are structural regional contradictions that need to be addressed [3] - The expectation for inventory accumulation in 2025 is weak, and the market is not expected to see significant accumulation in the second quarter [2]