Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The asphalt supply is expected to slightly increase as some refineries resume production, while demand will weaken further due to the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south. The asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 34.4 million tons year-on-year. The downstream operating rates of asphalt mostly declined last week. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 6.74% to 26.21 million tons week-on-week, at a neutral level. The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years. The crude oil price oscillated at a low level, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened. This week, the asphalt operating rate will slightly increase, but overall demand will be weak. The asphalt price in Shandong has been falling, and the basis is at a neutral level. The market is cautious about winter storage contracts, and the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 rose 1.06% to 2,952 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,941 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 2,972 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 8,340 to 104,372 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price of asphalt in Shandong continued to fall to 2,940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to -12 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. The investment in national highway construction from January to October decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate was flat compared with that from January to September. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transportation industry from January to October decreased by 4.3%, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed assets investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October decreased by 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September. As of the week of November 28, the downstream operating rates of asphalt mostly declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 5 percentage points to 29% week-on-week. From the perspective of social financing stock, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock from January to October was 8.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations. In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 28, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week at 14.5%, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of asphalt is expected to increase as some refineries will stabilize production, while the demand will weaken further with the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south. The market is cautious, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, hitting the lowest level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt scheduled production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month-on-month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year-on-year [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 34% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. The asphalt shipments in the Northeast increased significantly due to increased production and price cuts, and the national shipments increased 15.28% to 246,000 tons week-on-week, at a slightly below - average level [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years. Crude oil prices fell due to factors such as the non - impact of sanctions on Russian oil production and the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. A fire in Venezuela led to the shutdown of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened under US military threats [1]. - This week, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing will stably produce asphalt, and the asphalt operating rate will rise. With the temperature drop in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will weaken further. The project increments in the south are limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 1.41% to 3,007 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,003 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,040 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 2,170 to 154,449 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to - 7 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped producing asphalt. The asphalt operating rate dropped 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with that from January to August 2025 but remained negative. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% from January to September 2025, still in a negative growth situation. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 0.1% from 1.1% from January to September 2025 [4]. - As of the week of November 21, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 34% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - As of the week of November 21, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% compared with the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The asphalt production rate decreased last week, with the production rate falling 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November decreased by 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate was mixed, and the overall demand was weak. With the influence of factors such as crude oil price decline, it is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. The expected production in November was 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month - on - month (16.9%) and 27.4 million tons year - on - year (11.0%). This week, some refineries will stably produce asphalt, and the production rate will increase [1]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream industry's production rate was mixed last week. The road asphalt production rate remained flat at 34% due to capital and weather constraints. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will further weaken. The project increment in the south is limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - **Price**: Crude oil prices fell. The basis of asphalt in Shandong remained at a neutral level, and the market was cautious. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 1.19% to 3068 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3045 yuan/ton, the highest was 3074 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 7249 to 153,792 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to - 38 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Side**: Some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped producing asphalt. The asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [4]. - **Demand - related Data**: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. As of the week of November 21, the downstream industry's production rate was mixed, and the road asphalt production rate remained flat at 34% due to capital and weather constraints. From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 21, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% compared with the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt supply this week decreased, with the production rate falling by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, and the expected production in November dropping by 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The downstream demand is weakening, with the overall demand remaining flat. Considering that the base price in Shandong is at a neutral level and the spot price is stable, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: The asphalt production rate this week decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, hitting a record low for this time of the year. The expected production in November is 222.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.4 million tons (16.9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 27.4 million tons (11.0%). Next week, the production rate will rise as some refineries stabilize production [1]. - Demand: The downstream industry production rates showed mixed trends this week, with the road asphalt production rate remaining flat at 34% due to funding and weather constraints. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will further weaken. The project increment in the south is limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat this week, near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Price: Crude oil prices declined. The Shandong asphalt base price is at a neutral level, and the spot price is basically stable. The market is cautious, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.46% to 3009 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3000 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3086 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 6145 to 166,038 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 11 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped asphalt production, causing the production rate to fall by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, hitting a record low for this time of the year [1][4]. - Demand - related investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in road transportation and infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) were - 4.3% and - 0.1% respectively, both showing a downward trend [4]. - Social financing: From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 21, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat at 14.5% compared to the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4].