申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 对等关税最悲观的预期或已体现在四月市场的低点之中了。 截至 4 月 10 日，美国对中加权关税升至 157% 。贸易战 1.0 后，美对华加 权关税税率达 12% ，今年 2 月及 3 月，美国以芬太尼问题为由对华共加征 20% 额外关税； 4 月 3 日之后的对等关税最终征至 145% ，自此，美国对中加权关税升至 157% 。此外，以 2024 年贸易权重计算，美国平均关税率可能从 2024 年的 2.4% 升至 27% 。考虑到 4 月 9 日美国对华加征关税后，后期再增加关税已经影响不大了。因此，市场最悲观的预期就在那个时候，股票市场往往会在此时计入所 有预期，随后将逐步边际修复。 VIX 指数在 4 月 10 日美国宣布对部分国家暂缓 90 天增收对等关税后开始大幅回落。随后美国宣布对智 能手机、电脑等电子商品免征对等关税， VIX 指数随即继续回落。相反，美国股市及全球股市则开始企稳反弹，市场开始交易贸易冲突的 缓和。 数据显示总量经济仍在蛰伏状态，后期关注政策加码预期。 24 年四季度全 ...

Group 1 - The market direction for the upcoming week has been established, indicating that chasing high-performing stocks or betting on oversold rebounds is not advisable [1] - The failure of the medical trend and the new stock "Rundu" to achieve a three-day consecutive rise suggests that the profit potential from consecutive gains remains limited [1] - The rise of the ChiNext stocks, which closed up 19 points after being aggressively bought at the end of the trading session, indicates a new profit opportunity in the market [1] Group 2 - Short-term funds are increasingly risk-averse, leading to a reluctance to engage in high-risk investments, which explains the current limitations on consecutive stock gains [2] - The recovery of the ChiNext and the emergence of two potential high-premium directions suggest opportunities for short-term gains [2] - The "Lanshi" stock's rebound and the new stock "Fuli" may signal the beginning of a new trading model, contingent on their continued performance next week [2]