以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者姚立琦 1 1 月市场小幅调整。 2025 年 11 月，上证综合指数震荡调整，日均成交环比下降。 当月收盘 3888.60 点，较 2025 年 10 月末下跌 1.67% 。上海市场日均成交额为 8069 亿元，环比减少 16% 。 11 月上证指数实际的高点是 4034.08 点，低点是 3816.58 点，基本符 合我们的预期。沪深 300 指数 10 月基本平盘，日均成交 4638 亿元，环比减少 26.1% ；全月最高点 4707.13 点，全月最低点 4421.81 点，基本符合我们的预期。 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 美联储 12 月降息预期主导全球资本市场走向。 美联储十月议息会议后，关于 12 月是否降息的预期出现了明显的波动。首先是美联储主 席鲍威尔发言偏鹰派，导致降息预期的大幅下滑和全球资本市场的调整。 11 月 21 日，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表偏鸽言论，称近期仍有 进一步降息空间，市场对 12 月降息的预期概率迅速攀升至近 70% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the Shanghai Composite Index and the implications of Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on global capital markets, highlighting the importance of market support and resistance levels [1][6][11]. Market Overview - In November 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.60 points, down 1.67% from the end of October 2025, with an average daily trading volume of 806.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% [6][10]. - The highest point for the Shanghai Composite Index in November was 4034.08 points, while the lowest was 3816.58 points, aligning with expectations [9][10]. - The CSI 300 Index remained flat in October, with an average daily trading volume of 463.8 billion yuan, down 26.1% [6][10]. Federal Reserve Influence - The anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has significantly influenced global capital market trends, with market expectations for a rate cut rising to nearly 70% following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams [6][11]. Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index rose to 5.74 at the end of October, indicating a decrease in investor risk appetite, marking a second consecutive month of increase [7][13]. Market Profitability - In November, the number of stocks with gains exceeding 20% decreased to 218, an 8% decline, indicating a return to a more stagnant market environment [7][15]. - The number of stocks with gains over 50% increased, suggesting that while overall profitability is declining, specific sectors may be experiencing stronger performance [7][15]. Trading Volume and Price Relationship - The average daily trading volume fell for the second consecutive month to 1914.7 billion yuan, down 11.5% from October, reflecting a typical correlation between trading volume and market price movements [7][17]. Price Movement Analysis - The current market rally has not yet reached the average growth levels seen in previous major uptrends, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experiencing significant price adjustments [8][19]. - Historical data indicates that the average price increase for stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange during uptrends is approximately 115% over 30 months, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange sees an average increase of 172% over 29 months [8][19]. Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently facing resistance after a downward adjustment in November, having broken below the 60-day moving average, with key support now at the levels established in 2021 [6][21]. - The CSI 300 Index also showed significant adjustments in November, with two downward gaps and a breach of the 60-day moving average, indicating potential challenges ahead [6][24].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 4000 points for the first time in 10 years, indicating a gradual increase in market enthusiasm, despite a lack of strong profit-making effects for investors [1][2][28]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.83, with a gain of 14.61 points (+0.37%), while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw increases of 120.55 points (+0.90%) and 43.70 points (+1.35%) respectively [2]. - The index has risen from a low of 3100 points this year, reflecting a warming market sentiment [2]. Investor Sentiment - Many investors are conflicted about entering the market, fearing they might buy at a peak while also wanting to capitalize on the ongoing bull market [3][4]. - The current market reaction to the index reaching 4000 points is notably subdued compared to previous instances, with less media excitement and fewer discussions [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The speed of retail investors moving their deposits has decreased compared to previous bull markets, indicating a lack of confidence in sustained upward movement [7]. - The primary reason for the lack of enthusiasm is that while the index has risen, the actual account balances of many investors have not increased, leading to a disconnect between index performance and individual investor returns [9][10][12]. Market Control - The new high in the index is largely attributed to government intervention rather than an influx of new capital, suggesting that the market is currently in a phase of stock selection rather than broad-based growth [15][18]. - The absence of sufficient incremental capital means that the market is characterized by a struggle between existing funds, often resulting in larger funds dominating smaller ones [19][21]. Future Outlook - Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has previously surpassed 4000 points in 2007 and 2015, both times leading to further increases towards 5000 points [26][28]. - Current monetary policies, both domestically and internationally, are supportive of continued upward movement in the index, which could enhance profit-making opportunities in the future [30][31]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to identify undervalued sectors and stocks that may attract large capital flows as the index continues to rise [36]. - The expectation is that as the index approaches 5000 points, the profit-making effect will gradually improve, although this process may take time and require patience [35].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 4000 points for the first time in 10 years, indicating a gradual increase in market enthusiasm, despite the lack of strong market reactions and profit-making opportunities for investors [1][2][6][9]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.83, with a 0.37% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw gains of 0.90% and 1.35% respectively [2]. - The index has risen from a low of 3100 points this year, reflecting a warming market sentiment [2]. Investor Sentiment - Many investors are conflicted about entering the market, fearing they might buy at a peak and face subsequent declines [3][4]. - The current market reaction to the index reaching 4000 points is muted compared to previous instances, with less media excitement and fewer discussions [6][8]. Profitability Concerns - Despite the index reaching new highs, the overall market has not shown strong profit-making effects, with many investors' account balances remaining stagnant since August or September [9][10][12]. - The divergence between index performance and individual stock profitability is attributed to a lack of incremental capital entering the market, leading to a scenario where large funds dominate the trading landscape [18][21]. Historical Context - Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has reached 4000 points twice before, in 2007 and 2015, both times followed by a rise to 5000 points [26][27]. - Current government policies continue to support the capital market, suggesting potential for further upward movement in the index [27][30]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to transition from a phase of stock selection to one where larger funds will begin to invest in undervalued sectors and stocks, potentially improving the overall profitability for investors [32][34]. - Investors are advised to identify undervalued sectors and stocks that may attract large funds as the index continues to rise [36].

Core Insights - The overall stock private equity positions have reached a nearly one-year high, with a particularly aggressive stance from large private equity firms managing between 5 billion to 10 billion yuan, where over 60% are fully invested, indicating a highly optimistic market outlook [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Private Equity Positioning - As of October 17, the stock private equity position index rose to 79.68%, an increase of 0.55% from the previous week, marking a nearly one-year high. Since August, this index has cumulatively increased by 5.75%, showing a significant trend towards increasing positions [1][3]. - Over 63.40% of stock private equity firms are fully invested, while medium positions account for 20.41%. Low and empty positions are only 11.47% and 4.72%, respectively, indicating that the majority of private equity firms are opting for high positions [3]. Group 2: Aggressive Positioning of Leading Private Equity Firms - The position index for private equity firms of different sizes as of October 17 is as follows: over 100 billion yuan at 80.18%, 50-100 billion yuan at 87.35%, 20-50 billion yuan at 76.68%, 10-20 billion yuan at 78.09%, 5-10 billion yuan at 80.79%, and 0-5 billion yuan at 79.65%. Notably, firms managing between 50 billion to 100 billion yuan have the highest position at 87.35%, a three-year high [5][6]. - The sustained high positions of large private equity firms reflect their long-term confidence in the market, supported by stable client bases and low redemption pressures, allowing for a long-term holding strategy [5]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Confidence - The recent upward trend in the A-share market since August, along with clear upward movements in certain growth and consumer sectors, has attracted private equity funds to increase their allocations [6]. - Recent policy signals aimed at stabilizing growth and encouraging innovation have bolstered private equity firms' confidence in the medium to long-term market performance. Additionally, the overall liquidity in the market is reasonable and ample, providing favorable conditions for private equity to increase positions while reducing the costs associated with large-scale adjustments [7].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong profitability this year, leading to increased dividend distribution by private equity funds, with 1,038 products distributing dividends totaling 14.085 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1] - Stock strategy products have been the primary contributors to dividends, accounting for 107.35 billion yuan, which is 76.22% of the total, and achieving an average return of 31.19%, the highest among five mainstream strategies [1][2] - The active dividend distribution from stock strategy products is attributed to strong performance, management's intention to control product scale, and enhancing investor experience [1] Group 2 - Multi-asset strategies have distributed dividends 190 times, totaling 1.267 billion yuan, ranking second after stock strategies [2] - Subjective private equity products have shown more active dividend distribution, with 848 distributions totaling 94.15 billion yuan, while quantitative products have distributed 443 times for 46.70 billion yuan [2] - The rise in private equity fund dividends reflects both market profitability and management's efforts to optimize operations and improve investor experience [3] Group 3 - Market outlook suggests a continued upward trend amidst fluctuations, with investment strategies focusing on growth and balanced allocation, particularly in TMT, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceutical sectors [3] - Companies with competitive advantages, high-quality earnings, and core technology patents are prioritized for stock selection, alongside those with improved fundamentals [3] - Confidence in China's economy and capital markets remains strong, with a focus on long-term competitive advantage in sectors represented by new productive forces [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced adjustments after reaching new highs, but it remains in a consolidation phase since September, with a positive outlook on liquidity and market sustainability [1] Market Analysis - The current market's sustainability is heavily influenced by the liquidity situation, which appears to be positive [1] - There is a focus on the direction of market profitability moving forward, with ongoing improvements in overseas liquidity and geopolitical issues [1] - The domestic economic fundamentals are showing upward momentum, supporting a mid-term bullish outlook for the market [1] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a high position in the market, with an emphasis on balanced sector selection [1] - Attention should be given to the continuation of the positive trends indicated in the third-quarter reports [1] - Specific sectors to focus on include domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer goods companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that after reaching a new high, the A-share market has experienced some adjustments but remains in a consolidation phase since September. The sustainability of the current market trend is largely dependent on the positive feedback from the liquidity situation [1] Market Conditions - The current liquidity environment is viewed as positive, with ongoing improvements in overseas liquidity and geopolitical issues. The domestic economic fundamentals are also showing upward momentum, supporting the mid-term outlook for the market [1] Investment Strategy - The company recommends maintaining a high position in the market and emphasizes the importance of balanced sector selection. Attention should be paid to the continuation of profitability trends as reflected in the upcoming third-quarter reports [1] Sector Focus - Specific sectors to watch include: - Domestic computing power chain - Innovative pharmaceuticals - Robotics - Chemicals - Batteries - Leading consumer goods companies [1]

Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect remains positive, mid-term incremental capital is expected to continue entering the market [1][4][7] - The current WIND All A trend line is around 6106 points, with a profit-making effect of approximately 1.9%, still positive. It is advised to hold patiently until the profit-making effect turns negative [2][4][7] - The market is entering a significant event window, and volatility is expected to increase significantly. A more balanced allocation is recommended in response to this volatility [2][4][7] Industry Allocation - From a mid-term perspective, the industry allocation continues to recommend sectors that are experiencing a turnaround, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, which are still in an upward trend. Additionally, sectors benefiting from policy-driven growth, such as chemicals and innovative new energy, are expected to maintain upward momentum [2][4][7] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on computing power and batteries. In the short term, if the military sector shows significant volume reduction, it may present a good short-term buying opportunity [2][4][7] Performance Metrics - The Davis Double strategy achieved an absolute return of 1.68% this month and a cumulative absolute return of 48.70% for the year. The net profit gap strategy outperformed the benchmark by 1.34% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 53.50% for the year [1][8][11]

Group 1 - The expectation of a turning point in the profit growth rate of listed companies has increased, with A-share non-financial and "three barrels of oil" companies showing a rebound in net profit growth to 6.8% in Q1 2025, followed by a decline to 2.9% in Q2 2025, but maintaining positive growth due to decreasing base pressure from 2024 [5][10] - Domestic growth stabilization measures are being implemented, including policies like "anti-involution," infrastructure projects in the western regions, and childbirth subsidies, creating a dual focus on supply and demand [5][10] - The stock market is increasingly optimistic about the overall profit growth of listed companies potentially transitioning from negative to positive, which is a significant factor influencing the mid-term market trend [5][10] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's "neutral dovish" policy stance has significantly raised expectations for interest rate cuts in September, with implied probabilities for a cut rising from 72% to 94%, and the total number of cuts expected in 2026 increasing from 5.0 to 5.3 [6][13] - The rise in U.S. interest rate cut expectations has led to increased activity in global equity and commodity markets, marking it as a core influencing factor for market performance in September [6][13] Group 3 - The equity risk premium of the CSI 300 index was recorded at 5.61 at the end of August, significantly lower than the historical average, indicating a trend towards mean reversion [6][15] - The number of stocks in the market with gains exceeding 20% reached 789 in August 2025, a 76% increase from the previous month, marking the highest count for the year and reflecting a strong market characteristic [7][17] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a rapid upward trend after breaking through its previous trading range, overcoming key resistance levels from the last quarter of the previous year and 2021 [8][19] - The CSI 300 index has also broken through its previous high from the last quarter of the previous year, indicating a potential return to an upward trend, with long-term resistance levels possibly turning into support [8][22]