Group 1 - The global central bank net gold purchases reached 20 tons in May, approaching but still below the 12-month average of 27 tons [12][13] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to enhance the strategic appeal of gold for central banks, as countries seek to bolster their reserves against geopolitical shocks [13] - A record 43% of central bank officials indicated they plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, up from 81% last year [13] Group 2 - International oil prices declined across the board on July 4, with WTI crude oil down 0.75% to $66.5 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell 0.42% to $68.51 per barrel [4][7] - OPEC's oil production increased by 270,000 barrels per day in June compared to May, raising concerns about oversupply in the market [7] - Barclays raised its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast to $72 per barrel, indicating an improvement in demand outlook [7] Group 3 - International precious metal futures saw slight gains on July 4, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.11% to $3346.5 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 1.79% [9][11] - COMEX silver futures also rose by 0.14% to $37.135 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.1% [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Fuel oil: ななな (not clear from the given information) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: 文文文 (not clear from the given information) [1] - Asphalt: 文女女 (not clear from the given information) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] Core View of the Report - The international oil price has declined, and the SC2506 contract fell 2.14% during the Asian session. After experiencing trade war-induced declines and corrective rebounds, the oil price has entered a stable state. Attention should be paid to possible supply and demand changes. Hold low-cost bearish option combinations to hedge against oil price decline risks. The supply and demand of high-sulfur fuel oil have weakened marginally, while the cracking of low-sulfur fuel oil has been boosted. The supply and demand of asphalt have improved marginally, and it is supported to run in a strong and volatile manner. The overseas PG market is still supported by chemical demand, while the domestic market is under pressure, and the market maintains a volatile state. [2][3][4][5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price declined, and the SC2506 contract fell 2.14% during the Asian session. After trade war-induced declines and corrective rebounds, it entered a stable state. [2] - On the demand side, the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking has driven the repair of overseas refinery profits. The sustainability of refinery start-up demand support during the approaching peak oil product consumption season should be noted. Before there are clear signs of improvement in the Sino-US trade war, the room for bullish demand is expected to be limited. [2] - On the supply side, OPEC+ has increased production, and the supply disturbance risks caused by the easing of the Russia-Ukraine, Iran nuclear, and Palestine-Israel situations have weakened with marginal room for development. Last week, crude oil stocks increased, and refined oil stocks decreased, resulting in a further increase in total petroleum inventories. [2] - Hold low-cost bearish option combinations to hedge against oil price decline risks. [2] Fuel Oil - Russia's fuel oil shipments increased last week, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory continued to rise. Today, FU warehouse receipts increased by 4,950 tons. The supply and demand of high-sulfur fuel oil have weakened marginally, and the strength of FU cracking has loosened after reaching a high level. [3] - The 200,000-barrel-per-day residue catalytic cracking gasoline unit of Nigeria's Dangote refinery has entered maintenance. The strengthening of gasoline cracking has boosted the cracking of the main product, low-sulfur fuel oil. After the LU warehouse receipts increased by 31,000 tons, the May contract resumed its downward trend. [3] Asphalt - At the end of the month, some refineries in Shandong stopped producing asphalt, leading to a shortage of supply. Before the holiday, downstream stocking demand increased. The weekly asphalt shipments were 442,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 75,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 173,000 tons. [4] - The latest inventory data shows that the inventories of 54 sample refineries and 104 traders have both declined. With the marginal improvement in supply and demand, BU is supported to run in a strong and volatile manner. Today, SC declined, and BU showed relatively strong performance among oil products, with a significant strengthening of the cracking spread. [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas PG market is still supported by chemical demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the end-of-month CP. [5] - Domestic PDH plants are gradually shutting down, and the operating rate is expected to continue to decline. Middle and late arrivals at the terminal are expected, resulting in a temporary oversupply of imported gas. The domestic market is under pressure. [5] - The recent weakening of crude oil has limited the upward momentum of the market, and it maintains a volatile state. [5]