有色金属周报-铅 现货流通货源好转，关注原料端对炼厂开工影响 2025年11月25日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿：持续偏紧。目前进口矿几乎无报价的现状 | | | | | 持续，2026年的长单贸易商仅提供远期最少供货数量，但 | | | | | 不锁定加工费报价；国内贸易市场上，河南、内蒙古等地 | | | | | 区炼厂持续按需采购，银价上涨带来的溢价基本体现在 | | | | | TC报价内，若后续银价回调，TC报价或将小幅补涨。 | | | | | | 沪铅2511合约交割结束后，部分交 | | |  | 原料-废电瓶：铅蓄电池报废端平稳，随着铅价回落，炼 | 割货源重回现货流通市场，铅价震 | | | | 厂对废电瓶报价下调，成本端支撑有所松动。 | | | |  | 供给端：原生铅开工增减并存，产量小幅波动；再生铅方 | 荡回落，下游按需补库，考虑消费 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil will mainly show a narrow - range fluctuation, with LU stronger than FU. Given the current high global refinery operating rate, the supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase marginally. The recovery of Middle Eastern refineries has significantly boosted the global high - sulfur supply, and the positive factors from marine fuel and power generation demands have been fully priced in the market. Recently, the high - sulfur transactions in the Singapore market have weakened. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the maintenance of Brazilian refineries has basically ended, some spot goods have not been exported to the Asia - Pacific region, so the short - term low - sulfur price will remain stable. In the domestic market, the production scheduling of major refineries is gradually recovering. With sufficient quotas, exports in June have increased significantly, and it is expected that the scale will remain stable in July and August. The domestic low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to weaken month - on - month [4]. - Valuation: FU is in the range of 2800 - 3000, and LU is in the range of 3500 - 3700 [4]. - Strategies: (1) Unilateral: Follow the upward - trending oscillation of crude oil. (2) Inter - period: The back structure of FU and LU will continue, but the increase in near - term supply will keep the monthly spread at a low level. (3) Inter - variety: The FU cracking spread has fallen to the historical average level; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operating Rate**: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: It includes the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [20]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 [23]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It includes the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, Fujairah, and other places from 2018 - 2025 [35][36][37]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It includes the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, north - western Europe, and other places, as well as the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 [39][40][42][44][45]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [47][49][52]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It includes the viscosity spread and high - low sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 [55][56]. - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2019 - 2025 [58][60][61]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: It includes the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2022 - 2025 [65][66]. 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [71][73][74]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [76]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [78]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Internal - External Spreads in the Spot and Futures Markets**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in the spot and futures markets, as well as the internal - external spreads of FU and LU contracts from 2021 - 2025 [81][85][86][87][88][89]. - **Changes in FU and LU Positions and Trading Volumes**: It shows the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil contracts from 2020 - 2025 [91][93][96][98][99]. - **Changes in FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantities**: It shows the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2025 [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Fuel oil: ななな (not clear from the given information) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: 文文文 (not clear from the given information) [1] - Asphalt: 文女女 (not clear from the given information) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively clear bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] Core View of the Report - The international oil price has declined, and the SC2506 contract fell 2.14% during the Asian session. After experiencing trade war-induced declines and corrective rebounds, the oil price has entered a stable state. Attention should be paid to possible supply and demand changes. Hold low-cost bearish option combinations to hedge against oil price decline risks. The supply and demand of high-sulfur fuel oil have weakened marginally, while the cracking of low-sulfur fuel oil has been boosted. The supply and demand of asphalt have improved marginally, and it is supported to run in a strong and volatile manner. The overseas PG market is still supported by chemical demand, while the domestic market is under pressure, and the market maintains a volatile state. [2][3][4][5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price declined, and the SC2506 contract fell 2.14% during the Asian session. After trade war-induced declines and corrective rebounds, it entered a stable state. [2] - On the demand side, the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking has driven the repair of overseas refinery profits. The sustainability of refinery start-up demand support during the approaching peak oil product consumption season should be noted. Before there are clear signs of improvement in the Sino-US trade war, the room for bullish demand is expected to be limited. [2] - On the supply side, OPEC+ has increased production, and the supply disturbance risks caused by the easing of the Russia-Ukraine, Iran nuclear, and Palestine-Israel situations have weakened with marginal room for development. Last week, crude oil stocks increased, and refined oil stocks decreased, resulting in a further increase in total petroleum inventories. [2] - Hold low-cost bearish option combinations to hedge against oil price decline risks. [2] Fuel Oil - Russia's fuel oil shipments increased last week, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory continued to rise. Today, FU warehouse receipts increased by 4,950 tons. The supply and demand of high-sulfur fuel oil have weakened marginally, and the strength of FU cracking has loosened after reaching a high level. [3] - The 200,000-barrel-per-day residue catalytic cracking gasoline unit of Nigeria's Dangote refinery has entered maintenance. The strengthening of gasoline cracking has boosted the cracking of the main product, low-sulfur fuel oil. After the LU warehouse receipts increased by 31,000 tons, the May contract resumed its downward trend. [3] Asphalt - At the end of the month, some refineries in Shandong stopped producing asphalt, leading to a shortage of supply. Before the holiday, downstream stocking demand increased. The weekly asphalt shipments were 442,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 75,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 173,000 tons. [4] - The latest inventory data shows that the inventories of 54 sample refineries and 104 traders have both declined. With the marginal improvement in supply and demand, BU is supported to run in a strong and volatile manner. Today, SC declined, and BU showed relatively strong performance among oil products, with a significant strengthening of the cracking spread. [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The overseas PG market is still supported by chemical demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the end-of-month CP. [5] - Domestic PDH plants are gradually shutting down, and the operating rate is expected to continue to decline. Middle and late arrivals at the terminal are expected, resulting in a temporary oversupply of imported gas. The domestic market is under pressure. [5] - The recent weakening of crude oil has limited the upward momentum of the market, and it maintains a volatile state. [5]