2025.06. 05 本文字数：2059，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间周三，全球最大的石油出口国沙特宣布，将7月份亚洲原油出口价格下调至接近四年来的最 低水平，市场认为这是该国试图夺回市场份额，受此影响，国际原油两大主力合约下跌逾1%。在产 油国联盟OPEC+逐步释放产能的背景下，油价是否将面临供需失衡的新一轮冲击正引发广泛关注。 沙特下调亚洲出口价格 在OPEC+决定连续第三个月加速增产后不到一周，沙特宣布下调其亚洲出口石油价格，这将影响每 天约900万桶的运能。 根据沙特阿美发布的声明， 7月份运往亚洲的阿拉伯轻质原油的官方售价定为每桶高于阿曼/迪拜的 平均水平1.2美元，低于6月份的1.40美元/桶，报价水平刷新2021年以来新低。该价格被业内认为是 沙特如何看待需求前景的晴雨表。与此同时，所有其他较轻和中等密度等级的价格也有所下降。 上周六，OPEC+八个成员国同意下月起继续增产41.1万桶/日。自4月以来，这些国家累计完成137 万桶/日的增产，占他们计划向市场再增产220万桶/天的62%。外界预期，这些产能有望在9月或10 月完全释放完毕。这将完全抵消欧佩克或者国际能 ...

Group 1 - Saudi Arabia announced a reduction in July's crude oil export prices to Asia, reaching the lowest level in nearly four years, indicating an attempt to regain market share [1][2] - The official selling price for Arab Light crude oil was set at $1.20 above the Oman/Dubai average, down from $1.40 in June, reflecting a bearish outlook on demand [2] - OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day starting next month, with a total increase of 1.37 million barrels per day since April, potentially offsetting global oil consumption growth forecasts [2][3] Group 2 - The increase in supply may pressure oil prices, as Saudi Arabia and Russia aim to reclaim market share while penalizing overproducing allies like Iraq and Kazakhstan [3] - The U.S. shale oil sector is facing challenges, with active oil and gas drilling rigs decreasing by 6%, marking the lowest level since November 2021 [3] - Historical context shows that price wars can have long-lasting impacts, as seen in 2014 when oil prices plummeted from $107 to $27 per barrel, leading to significant bankruptcies in the U.S. shale sector [3][4] Group 3 - Global oil inventories have reportedly increased by approximately 170 million barrels over the past 100 days, indicating potential supply pressures [2] - The OECD has downgraded its growth forecasts for the U.S. and global economies, projecting a slowdown in GDP growth from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2026 [5] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine situation, are also influencing oil prices and market dynamics [6] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that if WTI prices remain around $60, many U.S. companies may find drilling new wells unprofitable, as the cost of hydraulic fracturing typically requires prices between $61 and $70 per barrel [7] - Future oil prices will depend on demand strength; if demand remains robust, a slowdown in U.S. production could support prices, while weak demand may lead to continued oversupply [7] - If OPEC+ production increases as expected, WTI prices could drop to $53-$55 per barrel, while Brent prices may fall to $56-$58 per barrel, representing a potential decline of about 10% [7]