证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] 行业评级 ——看好 上次评级——看好 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 原油周报：美伊冲突升级[Table_T ，油价itle震荡] 上涨 [Table_ReportDate0] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 【油价回顾】截至 2026年 2月 27 日当周，国际油价小幅上涨。近期 市场关注焦点依旧在美伊问题，春节期间美国向伊朗附近海域部署军 舰，且美伊双方均加强军事活动，引发油价明显上涨。本周，石油市 场对美伊第三轮谈判仍保持谨慎，叠加 EIA 显示美国原油库存增加 ...

| | | 全部 宽基 行业 策略 风格 主题 T+0 陆股通 股票型 债券型 商品型 货币型 跨境型 | | | | | | | | ETF整体 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 还原 | | 类型 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 : | IOPV | 折溢价率 | | 换手率 成交量(份) 成交额(元) | | 5日涨跌幅 | | 1 | 513350 | 跨 标普油气ETF T+0 | 1.162 | +9.73% | 1.0778 | +7.81% | 152.76% | 981.85万 | 11.17亿 | +11.09% | | 2 | 159518 | 标普油气ETF嘉实 T+0 | 1.101 | +9.66% | 1.0268 | +7.23% | 99.88% | 1453.63万 | 15.46亿 | +10.10% | | 3 | 563150 | 主 油气ETF银华 | 1.436 | +9.53% | 1.4034 | +2.32% | 26.79% | 14.58万 | 20 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The threat of the US to strike Iran has led to an upward oscillation in international oil prices [1]. - This week, the average weekly prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures were $68.6 and $63.4 per barrel respectively, up $3.8 and $3.2 from last week [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - The data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9]. 2. This Week's Performance Review of the Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector - **2.1 Performance of the Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector**: Information on the sector's performance and the performance of sub - industries, as well as the performance of the sector and the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, is presented, but specific data is not provided in the text [11][18]. - **2.2 Performance of Listed Companies in the Sector**: - The report provides the latest prices, total market values, and price changes in the past week, month, three months, one year, and since the beginning of 2026 for multiple listed companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec [23]. - A valuation table shows the stock prices, total market values, net profits attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of these companies from 2024 to 2027 [25]. 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **3.1 Crude Oil Prices**: It includes the prices and price differences of Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and ESPO crude oils, as well as the relationships between the US dollar index, LME copper price, and WTI crude oil price [29][31][40]. - **3.2 Crude Oil Inventory**: Analyzes the correlations between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, the weekly destocking speed of US commercial crude oil and the increase or decrease of Brent oil prices, and presents the total, commercial, strategic, and Cushing crude oil inventories in the US [43][44][49]. - **3.3 Crude Oil Supply**: Covers US crude oil production, the number of active oil rigs, and the number of active fracturing fleets, as well as their relationships with oil prices [63][64][66]. - **3.4 Crude Oil Demand**: Focuses on US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery operating rates, Shandong refinery seasonal operating rates, and the operating rates of major refineries in China [71][73][75]. - **3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export**: Details the import, export, and net import volumes of US crude oil and crude oil and petroleum products [79][81]. 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking - **4.1 Refined Oil Prices**: Analyzes the relationship between international oil prices and domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene prices and price differences, as well as the price differences between crude oil and refined oil in the US, Europe, and Singapore [86][109][114]. - **4.2 Refined Oil Inventory**: Presents the inventories of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US and Singapore [124][128][136]. - **4.3 Refined Oil Supply**: Covers the production volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US [144][145]. - **4.4 Refined Oil Demand**: Focuses on the consumption volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US and the number of airport security checks for passengers [148][149][153]. - **4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export**: Details the import, export, and net export volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US [161][167][168]. 5. Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - It shows the average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry [176][181].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [173]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are supporting international oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures averaging $64.8 and $60.1 per barrel, respectively, showing a slight increase of $0.1 and a decrease of $0.1 from the previous week [2]. - U.S. crude oil production is reported at 13.73 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease of 20,000 barrels per day week-on-week, while active oil rigs increased by 1 to 411 [2]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Oil Data Brief - The report provides a comprehensive overview of weekly oil data, including price trends, inventory levels, production rates, and import/export statistics [5][7][8]. 2. Oil and Petrochemical Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown varied performance, with specific companies experiencing significant fluctuations in stock prices over the past week, month, and year [21][22]. 3. Crude Oil Data Tracking - Crude oil prices have been tracked, showing fluctuations in both Brent and WTI prices, alongside inventory levels and production data [25][26][37]. - U.S. crude oil inventories have increased, with total inventories reported at 840 million barrels, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 441,000 barrels [2][44]. 4. Refined Oil Data Tracking - The report details refined oil prices, inventory levels, production, and consumption trends, indicating a decrease in refinery throughput to 16.6 million barrels per day, down by 350,000 barrels per day [4][74]. - Refined oil inventories have also seen changes, with gasoline and diesel inventories increasing by 598,000 and 335,000 barrels, respectively [2][108]. 5. Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - The oil service sector is analyzed, focusing on the average day rates for drilling rigs and the overall performance of service companies [158][161].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that geopolitical disturbances, particularly the ongoing situation in Iran, are significantly influencing oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices recorded at $64.13 and $59.34 per barrel respectively as of January 16, 2026 [1][2] - In the first half of the week, oil prices rose due to concerns over potential supply disruptions from Iran, while in the latter half, prices fell as plans for military action by the U.S. were temporarily shelved [1][2] - The report highlights that Brent crude futures settled at $64.13 per barrel, up by $0.79 (+1.25%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures increased by $0.22 (+0.37%) to $59.34 per barrel [2] Group 2 - As of January 12, 2026, the global number of offshore self-elevating drilling rigs increased to 377, with notable additions in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Middle East [3] - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.753 million barrels per day as of January 9, 2026, while the number of active drilling rigs rose to 410 as of January 16, 2026 [3] - U.S. refinery crude processing increased to 16.958 million barrels per day with a utilization rate of 95.30% as of January 9, 2026, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [3] Group 3 - U.S. total crude oil inventories rose to 836 million barrels as of January 9, 2026, marking an increase of 3.605 million barrels (+0.43%) from the previous week [4] - The report details that gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels (+3.71%), while diesel and jet fuel inventories saw slight decreases [4] Group 4 - As of January 16, 2026, the FOB price for ester-based biodiesel remained stable at $1,150 per ton, while hydrocarbon-based biodiesel also held steady at $1,875 per ton [5] - The report notes that the price of waste cooking oil in China increased slightly, with prices recorded at $876.68 and $961.81 per ton for waste cooking oil and waste oil respectively [5] Group 5 - Relevant companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina), among others [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are significant factors influencing oil prices. The Brent and WTI oil prices were reported at $64.13 and $59.34 per barrel, respectively, as of January 16, 2026 [2][9]. Oil Price Overview - As of January 16, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $64.13 per barrel, up $0.79 (+1.25%) from the previous week. WTI crude futures settled at $59.34 per barrel, up $0.22 (+0.37%). The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude rose by $0.49 (+0.98%) to $50.39 per barrel [2][26]. Offshore Drilling Services - As of January 12, 2026, the global number of offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 377, an increase of 1 from the previous week. The number of floating drilling platforms was 130, also up by 1 [2][35]. U.S. Oil Supply - As of January 9, 2026, U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.753 million barrels per day, a decrease of 58,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 410, with an increase of 1 rig [2][49]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing was 16.958 million barrels per day as of January 9, 2026, an increase of 49,000 barrels from the previous week. The refinery utilization rate was 95.30%, up 0.6 percentage points [2][57]. U.S. Oil Inventory - As of January 9, 2026, total U.S. crude oil inventories were 836 million barrels, an increase of 3.605 million barrels (+0.43%) from the previous week. Strategic oil inventories were 414 million barrels, up 214,000 barrels (+0.05%) [2][67]. Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [2][3].

Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have declined despite tensions between the US and Venezuela, which is counterintuitive to expectations [1] - Market participants are not focused on the US naval presence off the coast of Venezuela, with speculation that regime change could lead to increased Venezuelan oil supplies [2][3] - The restructuring of Venezuela's oil industry is expected to be a multi-year and costly process, complicated by significant Chinese and Russian interests [4] Middle East Tensions - Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are being closely monitored, with potential implications for the oil market [5] - A brief spike in oil prices occurred following Israeli strikes, but prices settled quickly, indicating market resilience [6] - Continuous escalation in the Middle East suggests that Israel may refocus on Iran, impacting regional stability and oil supply [8] Economic Indicators and Supply Concerns - Recent US rate cuts have not positively impacted oil prices, as anticipated inventory builds in Q4 are causing bearish sentiment [10][11] - Concerns about oversupply in the fourth quarter are prevalent among market participants [11] - Ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine could significantly affect Russian oil production and supply dynamics [12][13][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that international oil prices have risen due to a slowdown in OPEC+ production increases, compensatory cuts by member countries, and geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Russia, as well as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine [1][2]. Group 2 - As of September 12, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.99 per barrel, an increase of $1.49 per barrel (+2.27%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $62.69 per barrel, up $0.82 per barrel (+1.33%) [2]. - The price of Russian Urals crude remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, and Russian ESPO crude also held steady at $62.78 per barrel [2]. Group 3 - As of September 1, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 372, a decrease of 1 rig from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling rigs increased by 2 to a total of 133 [2]. Group 4 - As of September 5, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 72,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with active drilling rigs rising to 416 [3]. - U.S. crude oil total inventory reached 830 million barrels, an increase of 4.453 million barrels (+0.54%) from the previous week, with strategic reserves at 405 million barrels, up 514,000 barrels (+0.13%) [3]. Group 5 - As of September 5, 2025, U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories increased by 145,800 barrels (+0.67%) and 471,500 barrels (+4.07%) respectively, while aviation kerosene inventory rose by 47,400 barrels (+1.11%) [4].

Oil Market Overview - Brent and WTI crude oil futures averaged $67.4 and $64.9 per barrel respectively, down $4.2 and $3.6 from the previous week [2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stands at 830 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 420 million barrels, strategic inventory at 400 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 20 million barrels, showing changes of -2.79 million, -3.03 million, +0.23 million, and +0.45 million barrels respectively [2] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.28 million barrels per day, a decrease of 30,000 barrels per day from the previous week [2] - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume is 17.12 million barrels per day, an increase of 210,000 barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 96.9%, up 1.5 percentage points [2] Refined Products - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. are $88, $96, and $89 per barrel respectively, down $3.9, $5.2, and $5.1 from the previous week [3] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are at 230 million, 110 million, and 40 million barrels respectively, with changes of -1.32 million, -0.57 million, and +0.97 million barrels [4] - Production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. is at 980,000, 511,000, and 198,000 barrels per day respectively, with changes of -24, -10, and +11 thousand barrels per day [5] - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. is at 904,000, 372,000, and 171,000 barrels per day respectively, with changes of -11, +12, and -39 thousand barrels per day [6] Trade Dynamics - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 120,000, 950,000, and 820,000 barrels per day respectively, with changes of +1, +6, and +5 thousand barrels per day [6] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports are 80,000, 1.55 million, and 1.47 million barrels per day respectively, with changes of -15, +23, and +38 thousand barrels per day [6] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports are 0, 140,000, and 140,000 barrels per day respectively, with changes of -6, 0, and +6 thousand barrels per day [6] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cease - fire of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a significant decline in international oil prices [1] - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the weekly data of the US crude oil and refined oil markets, including prices, inventories, production, demand, and import - export volumes [2] - It also presents the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector and related listed companies, along with their valuations [21][24] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - The data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9] 3.2 This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review 3.2.1 Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance - Information on the sector's performance includes the sector's sub - industry price changes and the trend of the sector's sub - industries and the CSI 300 index [17] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [15][20] 3.2.2 Performance of Listed Companies in the Sector - The report shows the price changes of major companies in the upstream sector in different time periods (last week, last month, last three months, last year, and since the beginning of 2025) [22] - A valuation table for listed companies is provided, including share prices, total market values, net profits attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB ratios from 2024 to 2027 [24] 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.3.1 Crude Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price differences of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oils, and the relationships between crude oil prices and the US dollar index, copper prices [29][39][43] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [30][32][34] 3.3.2 Crude Oil Inventory - Examines the correlation between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, and the relationship between the weekly destocking rate of US commercial crude oil and the price change of Brent crude oil [45][46] - Presents data on US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory [48][49][53] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [45][48][49] 3.3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of active crude oil rigs, and the number of active fracturing fleets, as well as their relationships with oil prices [57][58] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [57][59] 3.3.4 Crude Oil Demand - Analyzes US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery operating rate, and Shandong refinery operating rate [62][64] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [63][64] 3.3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US crude oil import volume, export volume, net import volume, and the import - export volume of crude oil and petroleum products [67][70] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [68][69][70] 3.4 Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.4.1 Refined Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price differences between crude oil and domestic/US/European/Singapore gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as the wholesale - retail price differences of domestic gasoline and diesel [75][84][90] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [75][77][82] 3.4.2 Refined Oil Inventory - Presents data on US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene inventories, and Singapore gasoline and diesel inventories [102][105][111] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [102][106][112] 3.4.3 Refined Oil Supply - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production [117][118][120] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [119][120] 3.4.4 Refined Oil Demand - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene consumption, and the number of airport security checks for passengers [122][125][129] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [123][126][130] 3.4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export - Analyzes the import - export situation and net export volume of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene [132][135][136] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [133][136][137] 3.5 Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily rates of self - elevating and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry [146][147][149] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [146][148][150]