能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 10 月 20 日 星期一 油价承压下，纯苯苯乙烯延续偏弱运行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：10 月 17 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.77%，报 6483 元/吨，基 差 12（+77 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 1.38%，报 5566 元/吨。 成本：10 月 17 日布油主力收盘 57.0 美元/桶（-0.9 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 61.1 美元/桶（-0.8 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5585 元/吨（-100/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 19.7 万吨（-0.5 万吨），环比去库 2.7%，苯乙烯 进一步累库。纯苯港口库存 9.0 万吨（-0.1 万吨），环比去库 1.1%。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅回落。目前，苯乙烯周产量 33.9 万吨（-0.8 万吨），工厂产能利用率 71.9%（-1.7%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 62.5% （+21.8%），ABS 产能利用率 73.1%（+0.6%），PS 产能利用率 53.8%（- 0.8%）。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices initially rose but later declined, erasing all gains. The pessimistic long - term consumption outlook and the increasing supply have pressured oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices will fluctuate, while in the long - term, they will face downward pressure. It is recommended to cautiously short at high prices in the short term [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices showed a pattern of high at the beginning and low at the end. This week, oil prices are expected to remain under pressure. It is advisable to focus on the price range of 465 - 510 yuan/barrel and cautiously short at high prices within this range. Also, keep an eye on the production of OPEC+ countries and the United States [13]. 3.2 Market Review - In the first half of last week, oil prices rose due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the Middle East geopolitical situation. However, after the interest - rate cut, concerns about future consumption and the increasing production of OPEC+ countries and the United States led to a decline in oil prices in the second half [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomics - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, with the rate falling to the range of 4.00% - 4.25%. Some officials advocated a 50 - basis - point cut, and there are expectations of two more cuts this year. But Powell emphasized that this was a risk - management cut, and the impact on commodity prices may be limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [24][27]. 3.3.2 Supply - OPEC+ continued to increase production. For example, Saudi Arabia's production increased from 9450 thousand barrels per day in July to 9709 thousand barrels per day in August, and Russia's production also increased. Iraq's production was restored, and the US production remained stable and recovered [35][37][40]. 3.3.3 Demand - US calls and EU bans on Russian oil and gas reduced the consumption of Russian oil, leading to a wider supply in other regions. The manufacturing PMIs of the US and China did not improve, and the production of refined oil slowed down, all of which indicated weak demand [46][50][54]. 3.3.4 Inventory - US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected in the week ending September 12, but the impact on oil prices was limited. Refined oil inventories increased, especially the significant accumulation of refined oil, indicating poor consumption performance [56][60]. 3.4 View Summary - Overall, the increase in supply and the weakening of consumption will drag down oil prices. Although the Fed cut interest rates, the global financial situation is weak. The geopolitical impact on oil - producing countries will gradually decrease. Therefore, oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term and face long - term pressure [66].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup analysts indicate that oil prices may face downward pressure in the second half of the year, despite a perceived reduction in geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The market seems to believe that geopolitical risks have significantly diminished, but the future may still be challenging [1] - The focus may shift back to the bearish fundamentals of oil, especially after the third quarter [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Meeting - OPEC+ is set to hold a meeting in early July to decide how much oil production to restore in August [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - Citigroup reaffirms its outlook for Brent crude oil prices at $66 per barrel for the third quarter and $63 per barrel for the fourth quarter [1]