Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market is expected to have a loose supply - demand pattern. With weak oil prices and downstream production - cut expectations, the short - term price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of oil prices and geopolitical situations [2]. - The benzene - ethylene market generally continues to operate weakly. The supply - demand expectation is loose, and the short - term price driver remains weak. It is necessary to focus on the implementation rhythm of subsequent maintenance and the impact of macro and geopolitical factors on market sentiment [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamental Information - **Price**: On October 17, the main contract of benzene - ethylene closed down 1.77% at 6,483 yuan/ton, with a basis of 12 (+77 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 1.38% at 5,566 yuan/ton. The main contract of Brent crude oil closed at 57.0 US dollars/barrel (-0.9 US dollars/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at 61.1 US dollars/barrel (-0.8 US dollars/barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was reported at 5,585 yuan/ton (-100/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of benzene - ethylene was 19.7 tons (-0.5 tons), with a month - on - month destocking of 2.7%. The port inventory of pure benzene was 9.0 tons (-0.1 tons), with a month - on - month destocking of 1.1% [2]. - **Supply**: The production and capacity utilization rate of benzene - ethylene decreased slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly output of benzene - ethylene is 33.9 tons (-0.8 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 71.9% (-1.7%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of the downstream 3S industry has recovered. The capacity utilization rate of EPS is 62.5% (+21.8%), the capacity utilization rate of ABS is 73.1% (+0.6%), and the capacity utilization rate of PS is 53.8% (-0.8%) [2]. Views - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand of crude oil is expected to remain weak. OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and global oil consumption enters the off - season. Coupled with the tightening of US tariff policies, oil prices are under pressure. After the cease - fire agreement in Gaza, geopolitical risks ease. The short - term support level of Brent oil price is around 60 US dollars/barrel. In October, there are limited domestic plant overhauls, and some enterprises still have production plans, so the supply is expected to remain high. The downstream demand support is insufficient, most downstream products are in a loss state, and terminal demand is weak. The East China port may continue the destocking trend, but the low - price hydro - benzene in the north impacts the market, making the spot trading atmosphere in East China light. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is loose, and the short - term price may continue to fluctuate weakly [2]. - **Benzene - Ethylene**: The benzene - ethylene market continues to operate weakly. On the supply side, some enterprises stop production for maintenance due to profit pressure and inventory backlog, but new plants such as Jilin Petrochemical are about to be put into production, so the overall supply remains high. On the demand side, after the holiday, downstream devices resume work one after another, and the rigid demand drives a phased improvement in transactions, but downstream procurement is cautious, and the overall demand support is limited. Some downstream products are still in the loss range, and the finished product inventory pressure is high. On the cost side, the weakening of crude oil and pure benzene prices weakens the cost support, and the market sentiment is bearish. The domestic benzene - ethylene port inventory is still at a medium - high level, and the destocking rhythm is slow. Overall, the supply - demand expectation of benzene - ethylene is loose, and the short - term price driver is weak [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Price Data**: The prices of benzene - ethylene and pure benzene futures and spot, as well as upstream products such as crude oil and naphtha, are provided, including their changes from October 16 to 17, 2025 [5]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The production and inventory data of benzene - ethylene and pure benzene from October 10 to 17, 2025 are presented, showing the changes in production and inventory during this period [6]. - **Capacity Utilization Data**: The capacity utilization rates of pure benzene downstream industries (such as benzene - ethylene, caprolactam, etc.) and benzene - ethylene downstream industries (such as EPS, ABS, PS, etc.) from October 10 to 17, 2025 are given, reflecting the changes in the operating conditions of these industries [7]. 3. Industry News - OPEC+ production increased by 400,000 barrels per day month - on - month in September, with Saudi Arabia contributing 320,000 barrels per day. After the restart of oil exports in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, production may further recover in October [8]. - US refineries enter the autumn maintenance period, and the demand for refined oil decreases seasonally. EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory increased by 3.7 million barrels more than expected last week [8]. - Israel and Hamas reached a cease - fire agreement, the tense situation in the Middle East eased, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil continued to decline [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price charts of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene, the price difference chart between benzene - ethylene and pure benzene, the inventory charts of benzene - ethylene and pure benzene, and the capacity utilization rate charts of related industries, with data sources mainly from iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][13][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices initially rose but later declined, erasing all gains. The pessimistic long - term consumption outlook and the increasing supply have pressured oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices will fluctuate, while in the long - term, they will face downward pressure. It is recommended to cautiously short at high prices in the short term [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices showed a pattern of high at the beginning and low at the end. This week, oil prices are expected to remain under pressure. It is advisable to focus on the price range of 465 - 510 yuan/barrel and cautiously short at high prices within this range. Also, keep an eye on the production of OPEC+ countries and the United States [13]. 3.2 Market Review - In the first half of last week, oil prices rose due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the Middle East geopolitical situation. However, after the interest - rate cut, concerns about future consumption and the increasing production of OPEC+ countries and the United States led to a decline in oil prices in the second half [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomics - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, with the rate falling to the range of 4.00% - 4.25%. Some officials advocated a 50 - basis - point cut, and there are expectations of two more cuts this year. But Powell emphasized that this was a risk - management cut, and the impact on commodity prices may be limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [24][27]. 3.3.2 Supply - OPEC+ continued to increase production. For example, Saudi Arabia's production increased from 9450 thousand barrels per day in July to 9709 thousand barrels per day in August, and Russia's production also increased. Iraq's production was restored, and the US production remained stable and recovered [35][37][40]. 3.3.3 Demand - US calls and EU bans on Russian oil and gas reduced the consumption of Russian oil, leading to a wider supply in other regions. The manufacturing PMIs of the US and China did not improve, and the production of refined oil slowed down, all of which indicated weak demand [46][50][54]. 3.3.4 Inventory - US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected in the week ending September 12, but the impact on oil prices was limited. Refined oil inventories increased, especially the significant accumulation of refined oil, indicating poor consumption performance [56][60]. 3.4 View Summary - Overall, the increase in supply and the weakening of consumption will drag down oil prices. Although the Fed cut interest rates, the global financial situation is weak. The geopolitical impact on oil - producing countries will gradually decrease. Therefore, oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term and face long - term pressure [66].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup analysts indicate that oil prices may face downward pressure in the second half of the year, despite a perceived reduction in geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The market seems to believe that geopolitical risks have significantly diminished, but the future may still be challenging [1] - The focus may shift back to the bearish fundamentals of oil, especially after the third quarter [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Meeting - OPEC+ is set to hold a meeting in early July to decide how much oil production to restore in August [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - Citigroup reaffirms its outlook for Brent crude oil prices at $66 per barrel for the third quarter and $63 per barrel for the fourth quarter [1]