二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 01 月 25 日 棕榈油：基本面无新增利空，炒作题材不断 豆油：美豆题材不足，油粕比交易上行 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：月初 MPOB 报告兑现利空落地、B50 风险初现后基本面几无新增利空，同时美国生柴政策趋 近落地、印尼印度加税等炒作话题频发，寒潮、地缘等问题发酵带动原油价格上行，马来逐步兑现 1 月减 产，棕榈油季节性做多情绪高涨，棕榈油 05 合约周涨 3.39%。 豆油：缺乏南美天气炒作，美豆上方驱动有限，跟随油脂板块上行为主，同时油粕比偏多交易思路强 化，豆油 05 合约周涨 1.45%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：虽然在给到中国进口利润的情况下的上涨暗示着基本面无实际改善，但当前几乎无可能新增 的利空消息，年前伴随着寒潮的到来炒作一些无法证伪的题材的交易思路偏多，而前期对于马来高库存现 实市场已充分交易，新的趋势性利空需要看到 1-2 月产量仍在 160 及 150 万吨以上水位运行，但在 1 月 SPPOMA 仍显示减产幅度 16%，ITS 前 20 日出口环比增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall view is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited as demand is expected to improve. The market will generally fluctuate with an upward bias, in the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - The bearish factors include the possible weakening of the Trump administration's support for the biodiesel blending policy after China purchases US soybeans, Brazil's entry into the harvesting stage, and the continued increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - The bullish factors are the expected purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans by China before February 2026 and over 25 million tons per year in the next three years, the initial signs of drought in southern Argentina, and the possibility of a La Nina weather leading to a reduction in South American soybean production [5]. Summary by Directory Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans closed down in a fluctuating manner. The active contract of US soybeans closed at 1057.75 cents per bushel, down 4.75 cents per bushel. After the USDA released a bearish January supply - demand report, the price briefly fell and then rebounded. The biodiesel blending policy may be announced in March, slightly improving the demand outlook for beans. Next week's key points to watch are China's procurement rhythm, the weather in South American main producing areas, and the progress of the biodiesel policy [7]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at $290 per short ton, down $13.7 per short ton. The January supply - demand report was bearish, putting pressure on beans overall. The biodiesel blending policy is expected to be announced in March, causing the price of soybean oil to strengthen. The oil - meal ratio trading led to a significant decline in the price of meal [10]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil rebounded, closing at 52.61 cents per pound, up 2.92 cents per pound. The biodiesel blending policy is expected in March, supporting the oil and fat market. The strengthening of international crude oil prices has improved the consumption outlook for oil and fat [13]. - As of January 2, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.19 per bushel, down $0.11 [15]. - As of January 2, the price of soybeans in Iowa was $9.62 per bushel, down $0.28 week - on - week [17]. - On January 16, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, fell by 0.96 to 103.56 reais per bag [19]. - As of January 16, the spot price at Brazilian ports fell by 3.19 to 131.45 reais per bag [21]. Supply Factors - In Brazil, the southern region will have little precipitation in the next two weeks, the eastern region will have more, and the central - western region will be basically normal. The overall precipitation in the main producing areas of Brazil in the next two weeks will be close to normal. Mato Grosso in Brazil will be basically normal in the next two weeks, while Parana and Rio Grande do Sul will have less precipitation [24][28][31]. - The main producing areas of Argentina will have less precipitation in the next two weeks, and there will be basically no rain in the core producing areas in the next week [38][40]. Demand Factors - As of January 9, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.12 per bushel, compared with $2.33 last week [43]. - In the week ending January 9, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.6373 million tons, compared with 1.1126 million tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.5297 million tons, compared with 0.9841 million tons last week. The net sales volume this year was 2.0619 million tons, compared with 0.8779 million tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 10,000 tons, compared with 0 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China was 0.9011 million tons, compared with 0.397 million tons last week [45][47][49]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.106, remaining in the La Nina range [56]. - The cost of soybeans in Brazil is expected to rise next year, and the planting costs of soybeans in Brazil and the US are expected to rise slightly. The planting cost of US soybeans continues to increase, while the cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased year - on - year [58][60][62]. - As of January 13, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 53,000 lots, compared with 95,900 lots last week. The net short position of soybean oil was 49,300 lots, compared with 73,000 lots last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 17,100 lots, compared with 20,700 lots last week [64][66][68].