摘要 招商轮船业务涵盖油轮、干散货、集运、LNG 和滚装，其中油运四季度 显著增长，LNG 受益于运力增长，滚装船队受交付高峰影响下跌但运量 上涨，邮轮业务提供较大业绩弹性，预计一季度更明显。 8 月以来油运价跳涨由巴西、西非长航线货源增长及美印贸易谈判影响， 俄罗斯出口量上升但欧美制裁降低运输效率，OPEC 增产落地，印度大 规模购买非俄油，推动非合规市场向合规市场转移。 OPEC 一季度暂停增产不影响全球合规油需求增长逻辑。即使明年下半 年交付约 30 艘 VLCC，也难弥补老旧船舶效率下降及受制裁船舶运输效 率下降带来的供应缺失，市场仍供不应求。 俄乌战争结束若俄罗斯胜，美洲石油回亚洲，增加 VLCC 长航线需求； 若西方胜，俄罗斯石油供应内化或回归美洲原油远东运输模式。美国与 委内瑞拉开战，委内瑞拉西方化后石油生产潜力可达 200 万桶/日，有 助于调控油价。 西芒杜铁矿项目对 VLOC 市场影响有限，VLOC 签署的是长期合同。铝 土矿往远东长航线运输是干散货提振动力，未来铝土矿仍将促进干散货 增长。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）四季度以来，游轮市场运价表现如何？对明年（2026 年） 的展望如何？ ...

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Energy is the largest tanker owner globally, with a diverse fleet structure that allows the company to capitalize on market cycles effectively [1] Group 1: Company Overview - China Merchants Energy owns 44 VLCCs, contributing nearly 1 billion yuan in net profit elasticity, while the overall fleet's net profit elasticity is close to 2 billion yuan [1] - The company has additional profit elasticity of 400 million yuan from its current orders upon delivery [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is increasing crude oil production, which is expected to boost transportation demand, with a potential increase of 2.14 to 4.11 million barrels per day [1] - The current low oil prices have released pent-up inventory demand, with global crude oil inventories still having a capacity of 460 million barrels compared to the five-year high [1] - The supply constraints are strong, with VLCC fleet capacity not seeing concentrated scrapping for nearly 20 years, leading to an expected actual fleet growth rate of 3.3% and 5.1% for 2026-2027 [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast - The forecast for VLCC freight rates is set at an average of $50,000/day, $60,000/day, and $58,000/day for the years 2025 to 2027 [3] - Projected revenues for the company are 24.485 billion yuan, 26.725 billion yuan, and 27.233 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.8%, 9.1%, and 1.9% respectively [3] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.462 billion yuan, 5.803 billion yuan, and 5.757 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of +10.5%, +30.1%, and -0.8% respectively [3] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Potential - The company's replacement cost is estimated at 55.43 billion yuan, with the current market value being 0.73 times the replacement cost, lower than its peers [3] - If benchmarked against a P/NAV of 1.16 times, the company has an upside potential of 58% [4] - Under various scenarios, including a 10% increase in ship prices, the estimated replacement cost could rise to 60.5 billion yuan, indicating potential price increases of 65%, 72%, and 200% under different assumptions [4]